Grading a realistic Orioles-Tarik Skubal trade with Jackson Holliday nowhere to be found

The Orioles are making waves in their pursuit of Tarik Skubal. However, they are reluctant to give up the No. 1 prospect in MLB, Jackson Holliday. Can they acquire Skubal without including him? Let’s view one attempt to do just that.

A recent tweet from MLB Network detailed a trade proposal to land the Tigers’ ace. Proposed by former infielder, Mark DeRosa, the package includes corner outfielder Heston Kjerstad, C/1B Samuel Basallo, and 2B/OF Connor Norby. On the surface, you’d think three prospects/inexperienced big leaguer wouldn’t really move the needle very far when chasing a Cy Young favorite like Skubal. But after one look at these three, you’ll see they are very talented.

However, trying to nab Skubal without Jackson Holliday is going to result in no trade unless the Orioles are willing to pay much more than even Skubal is worth. But before we immediately dismiss DeRosa’s trade package that seems a little light, let’s dissect it and get to know these young Orioles.

(For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, and join the discord to get the inside scoop as we near the July 30 MLB trade deadline.)

OF Heston Kjerstad

Heston Kjerstad was the Orioles’ No. 4 prospect when the season started. But now, his prospect status has fallen and he is a rookie. He made his debut last year going 7-30 with two home runs. This year has been much better for Kjerstad who is 16-for-54 with three home runs. His .408 OBP, though it is a small sample size, is rather impressive. While promising, his 18 strikeouts aren’t really a big selling point.

C/1B Samuel Basallo

The No. 2 prospect in the Orioles’ farm system and No. 12 overall in baseball, Samuel Basallo, has had some success in the minors. He is currently slashing .273/.338/.443 with 12 home runs in 300 at-bats in Double-A. Last year, Basallo hit to the tune of a .313 average with 20 home runs. This also came with 7 triples (yes, he is a catcher). Scouts rate his hitting ability, power, and arm at a 60/80. At age 19, he definitely has room to grow.

2B/OF Connor Norby

Connor Norby is the Orioles’ No. 5 prospect. Norby made his MLB debut earlier this season going 3-for-14 with a home run. His MLB numbers don’t show us much, but his minor-league stats this year and last have been great. Through 320 at-bats this season in Triple-A, Norby maintains a slash line of .297/.389/.519 with 16 home runs. He also has 13 stolen bases this season. Norby definitely has what it takes to be an impact player.

Grading Mark DeRosa's Orioles-Tigers trade for Tarik Skubal

A package like this is enticing and one that would be hard to turn down for the Tigers. With three players who are/have recently been in the top-5 of the Orioles’ farm system, this is no package to scoff at. But is it really worth the best pitcher in the AL?

Skubal owns a 2.34 ERA with 146 K’s through 123 IP. His performance thus far has been nothing short of masterful. To get an idea of what trading for an ace looks like, let’s review a couple of trades.

First let’s look at the Gerritt Cole trade to Houston in 2018 that brought the Pittsburgh Pirates Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, and Jason Martin. To start, there were four players being traded for one. But there is no right answer as to quantity over quality..

In the offseason, the Orioles landed Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and the No. 34 draft pick.

So, would DeRosa’s package be sufficient to land an ace? Probably not, but he’s not far off. One would think the Tigers’ will be tougher to negotiate with than the Brewers in any deal for Skubal. While these three players are highly talented, the Tigers will likely want to maximize their return by getting at least four players as they are giving up a proven ace for young, unproven talent. The Tigers also aren't in any rush to trade Skubal.

However, a trade for Jackson Holliday, who is seen as a player who can change a franchise, might be the cherry on the sundae that brings Skubal to Baltimore. Without Holliday, the Orioles will likely need to throw in another prospect or two depending on how stubborn the Tigers are on their asking price.

Nonetheless, DeRosa’s package earns a respectable B+. In any other instance, there would likely be a new ace in Baltimore. But the Tigers are playing a tough game of hard to get. In this case, it probably doesn’t work.

Grade the trade: B+