MLB trade grades: Brewers may have actually won the Corbin Burnes deal after bombshell report

The MLB All-Star break was supposed to be a quiet time leading up to the second half of the season. Once teams returned to action, then things would heat up with the trade deadline right around the corner and the postseason not too far behind.

The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal had other ideas, though, as on the Foul Territory podcast, he revealed shocking news that Corbin Burnes, a free agent at the end of the 2024 campaign, will not be back for the 2025 season.

This comes as a major surprise. The Baltimore Orioles acquired Burnes knowing he could be a rental, but with new ownership in place, it was safe to assume they'd at the very least try to bring him back, right? Nobody expected it to be a foregone conclusion that he'd be gone before the second half even began.

Rosenthal saying he's "not coming back" as if it's definite is bad news for an Orioles team that now has a glaring future need. With Kyle Bradish injured and Burnes headed elsewhere, they need a frontline starter.

This news makes Baltimore's deadline plans that much more interesting as they might prioritize acquiring a starter or even two with club control. We know they have the farm system to do it. What this news also does is potentially make the Milwaukee Brewers the victors of the Burnes trade.

MLB trade grades: Did the Brewers win the Corbin Burnes trade?

Here's the trade that went down this offseason:

At the time of the deal, it felt that even with Burnes' contract status, the Orioles won this deal handily. They acquired one of the best pitchers in the game to lead their rotation without giving up any of their insanely valuable prospects. Ortiz was a top 100 prospect, but he wasn't seen at the level of guys like Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, or Heston Kjerstad. DL Hall was being used out of the bullpen, and the Orioles had more than enough prospect capital to be just fine with missing out on a prospect taken with the No. 34 pick (it turned out to be Blake Burke).

Burnes, to his credit, has lived up to his end of the bargain. He has a 2.43 ERA in 19 starts and 118.2 innings of work this season, and pitched so well to the point where he was chosen to start for the AL in the All-Star Game. Burnes could easily be the AL Cy Young favorite, and the Orioles are sitting in first place in the AL East.

Even with Burnes pitching well, it turns out, Baltimore might have lost this trade.

In addition to Joey Ortiz being a really good and versatile defender, he has had a really strong year offensively. The 26-year-old is slashing .264/.369/.432 with seven home runs and 29 RBI in 77 games. Burnes is the better player right now, obviously, but Ortiz being a Gold Glove-caliber defender while also posting a 128 WRC+ makes him an extremely valuable player in his own right.

What might save this trade for Baltimore for the time being is that DL Hall has been a non-factor. He has just four appearances (all starts) this season for Milwaukee, and had a 7.71 ERA before suffering a knee injury in April. He has yet to return from the IL, which has hurt the Brewers considering their rotation woes.

Even with Hall's future in question, Ortiz isn't set to hit arbitration until after the 2026 campaign. The Brewers get at least six years of a player who could end up being one of the best third basemen in the National League if he isn't already in exchange for one year of Burnes. That alone sounds pretty good, and when you throw Hall and Burke in, it swings even more in Milwaukee's favor.

The Orioles winning the World Series makes the deal worth it on their end even if Burnes leaves, but without that, it's hard to chalk this up as a win for Baltimore if Burnes does depart. Knowing Burnes is going to leave (according to Rosenthal) and how hard it is to win the World Series, for now, I think it's fair to proclaim the Brewers as the current winners, even if the margin is slim right now.

Orioles trade grade: B+
Brewers trade grade: A-