Orioles top deadline need is clearer than ever after shocking Corbin Burnes update

The Baltimore Orioles are potential World Series favorites in the American League, led by the best young core in baseball. Gunnar Henderson is bound to be a finalist for the MVP award, while Adley Rutschman and Corbin Burnes started alongside him in Tuesday's All-Star Game.

It is Burnes who is in the news cycle today, though. The talented righty ranks near the top of the AL in several pitching categories, boasting a 2.43 ERA and 1.045 WHIP through 19 starts (118.2 innings). Acquired via offseason trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, the four-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner has been as dominant as advertised.

But, Burnes is something of an aberration for this Orioles team. For years, Baltimore shied away from expensive veterans and long-term financial commitments. David Rubenstein took over ownership of the team at the beginning of the season — which just so happened to coincide with the Burnes trade.

All of a sudden, the O's were the aggressor, landing the offseason's hottest pitching commodity to address the primary weakness of a World Series-level core. It was clearly the right move, as evidenced by Baltimore's standing atop a loaded division and Burnes' obvious comfort level in Camden Yards.

Projecting forward, however, there is still extreme risk tied to this move. Burnes is a free agent at season's end. One would expect the Orioles' newfound trade aggression to coincide with a bump in payroll. That doesn't mean the O's can match Burnes' inevitable price tag, though, nor does it even guarantee that Burnes even wants to return.

In fact, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the O's need to start preparing for the future right now.

Corbin Burnes 'not coming back' to Orioles in free agency

Corbin Burnes is "not coming back" to Baltimore as a free agent, per Rosenthal. It's not immediately clear if this is concrete reporting or speculation, but typically, plugged-in reporters of Rosenthal's caliber don't speak in absolutes unless it's backed up. It shouldn't come as too much of a shock once spoken aloud either. Burnes is going to scrape the $200-300 million range on his next deal. That has never been in Baltimore's price range, new owner or not. Plus, the 29-year-old is sure to look toward bigger markets, such as New York or Los Angeles.

This is still an alarming tidbit for the O's fanbase, though. After season-ending injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means, Baltimore is already shorthanded on the mound. Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are under team control for the foreseeable future, but Burnes is Baltimore's only established ace. He was brought in to anchor the weakest element of this Orioles team, which he has done well. Without Burnes, Baltimore's standing in the AL wavers.

It's abundantly clear what Baltimore needs to target in the days leading up to the July 30 trade deadline — pitching with long-term club control. The O's need immediate help, but rentals will leave Baltimore grasping at straws in the offseason. Equipped with baseball's deepest farm system and a clear competitive window over the next few years, the Orioles need to target a high-level starter with at least a couple seasons left on his contract — even if it requires a premium payment.

The ideal targets are well-documented. The Detroit Tigers won't trade Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal unless a godfather offer comes across the table. There isn't a team better prepared to mount such an offer than Baltimore. Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet is another, slightly more affordable (but still pricey) option. Baltimore can outbid every team in the league. If one of those two isn't on the roster in a couple weeks, it's because the front office balked.

There are, of course, other options. Speaking of godfather offers, what if the O's cashed in for Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller and moved him back into the starting rotation next season? That's a fun thought. More realistically, names like Colorado Rockies ace Cal Quantrill are squarely in the Orioles' price range.

It's time for the Orioles' front office to double down on their aggression while preparing for what appears to be an inevitable offseason shakeup. Maybe Burnes becomes more inclined to rejoin Baltimore with a World Series victory, but until that bridge is crossed, the O's must operate with the utmost immediacy.