How much is a NBA Draft pick worth? 

With the NBA Draft starting Wednesday, June 25, and trade season about to heat up, draft picks are about to have their annual moment in the sun. Outside of providing struggling fanbases hope through prospects, draft picks are the de facto currency of the league. When a deal needs to be made, picks are brought in to grease the wheels and hopefully leave everybody happy. 

For as much as draft picks are discussed, how valuable they are is an under-discussed topic. Is that top-14 protected pick really all that good? Is that swap from the No. 24 to the No. 17 pick actually valuable? Did my team give up too much to land a player or move up in the draft? Or did we pull off the heist of the century? I’ll try to address these questions to the best of my abilities. 

How much each NBA Draft pick is worth

While where a future pick will land is unknown, we do have a good idea of how valuable a pick is once we know where it lands. Between 1980 and 2020, the first-overall pick produced, on average, 27.4 value over a replacement player (VORP). Meanwhile, second-overall picks ended up with 15 career VORP, but third-overall picks came in at 22.1 VORP. Viewing draft picks through this lens gives us a good idea of where the best picks are, but it can leave us with some questions. 

Does this mean the third pick is actually better than the second pick? Not in the slightest. Every player selected with the third pick was also available with the second pick. The problem isn’t with the pick, it’s with the selection. So how can we conceptualize the value of a draft pick without getting bogged down by the bad decisions of our forefathers? 

The answer to this quandary is relatively simple. Every draft provides "X" amount of value, and each pick provides a portion of it. The first pick has all the value of the draft available to it, which makes it so valuable, and each subsequent pick has a bit less. By taking the average VORP of a draft and subtracting the previous pick’s average career VORP, we can get a better idea of each pick’s value. 

The first pick is clearly the best pick, with value dropping off quickly after the top three picks. Much like the distribution of value in the NBA, the draft follows a clear exponential trend. The best players and picks are far more valuable than anything else, while the difference between the 50th and 100th best player or the 15th and 25th pick is relatively small. 

Complex questions about NBA Draft pick value

Determining the value of a singular pick in historical terms is relatively straightforward, but as soon as you add variables things become much more muddled. For example, the Houston Rockets are rumored to be receptive to trading the third overall pick. In historical terms, that means giving up a player who will produce 22.1 career VORP and giving a franchise 84 percent of the remaining value in a draft to pick from. While the fourth and 43rd picks add up to about 84 percent of the remaining draft value, that doesn’t fully capture the true value of the third pick. 

The famous Bill Simmonsism, “Four quarters don’t equal a dollar,” is applicable here. For instance, if you turn one player who provides four wins into four players who provide one win each, you’re making your team dramatically worse. The logic here is relatively simple. You can only play five players at once, so stacking more value into one spot goes far beyond the pure value because it leaves you more spots to generate value. 

The third pick, historically, is certainly worth more than the fourth and 43rd picks, but where exactly does the value become equal? The answer to that will be varied and relates heavily to scarcity, which in turn relates heavily to ever-changing market dynamics. In the 2024 draft, maybe the third pick really is worth the fourth and 43rd picks, but in 1984, it might take the first, second, fourth, and fifth picks. 

While I tried to provide answers to timely questions, the fact remains economics is an inexact science that tries all too often to masquerade as mathematics. The conceptual value of a draft pick is knowable, but everything after that depends on factors that require statistical and economic modeling far beyond my capabilities. Perhaps the simplest answer is best. A draft pick is as valuable as you make it. So choose wisely.