Ranking 5 way-too-early Rookie of the Year candidates after NBA Draft

The 2024 NBA Draft has come and gone. Many have panned the upcoming rookie class, tossing out adjectives ranging from "weak" to "historically bad." That could all look like hyperbole in a few years. The hit-to-miss ratio in Wednesday's first round was actually pretty solid, with a lot of prospects ending up in favorable situations.

Of course, we can't go through an entire draft without a few whiffs. The Charlotte Hornets reached big-time on Tidjane Salaun at No. 6, while the Milwaukee Bucks' decision to draft 19-year-old A.J. Johnson in the No. 23 spot befuddled even the staunchest supporters of the 6-foot-5 point guard.

We won't really know the full extent of the successes and failures from this draft until, like, 2034. Prospects always develop at different speeds. Trades, free agent movement, and unexpected developments will shape this rookie class in the decade-plus to come. All we can do now is rely on past knowledge and do our best to project forward.

That brings us to the 2025 Rookie of the Year race. Normally, we have a pretty good sense of which prospects are front-running for this award. Last summer it was Victor Wembanyama all the way. Every smart bet was on the French sensation. Before that, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith Jr. were viewed as the preseason 1-2.

The races don't always play out as anticipated, but it's generally not this difficult to analyze the potential contenders. While your mileage may vary on the "weak" label for this draft, the talent at the top was extremely balanced. There isn't a ton of parity between No. 1 and No. 10.

Rookie of the Year generally comes down to usage and minutes as much as anything. The most productive rookies win, regardless of team success. That could change this season without an obvious star frontrunner, but we are looking for prospects who are going to play a lot and put up numbers. It's a simple formula.

Here are my five favorites one year out.

Honorable mentions: Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis, Isaiah Collier, Dalton Knecht, Devin Carter, Stephon Castle

5. Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks

In this writer's opinion, Zaccharie Risacher as the No. 1 pick was a substantial mistake by the Atlanta Hawks. He was the No. 15 prospect on my board, hamstrung by a lack of on-ball creation and at-rim scoring. He projects as a fairly stable option, listed 6-foot-9 with excellent lateral mobility and a reasonably reliable 3-point shot. But it's the No. 1 pick, and the Hawks shouldn't be angling for role players.

There has been plenty of buzz from ESPN's Jonathan Givony and others about Risacher acing workouts, showing more physicality than expected given his string-bean, 195-pound frame. If Risacher can develop the necessary handle, burst, and strength to create advantages and score downhill on a consistent basis, that changes the projection. Right now, however, I am fairly skeptical.

All that said, it's hard to keep Risacher out of early Rookie of the Year predictions. He's in a great spot next to Trae Young. The Hawks are going to feature him like a No. 1 pick, deserving or not. Risacher should get a steady diet of spot-up 3s, and Quin Snyder generally draws up a clever offensive game plan. Risacher can run the floor with Trae, score off of movement, and find ways to contribute in the flow of the offense.

The defense, ideally, translates sooner than later. Even with below-average strength, Risacher's 6-foot-10 wingspan and excellent quickness should lead to a positive impact on that end. Atlanta's defense has been a mess for years. If Risacher can handle difficult assignments and string together a few stops here and there, it will qualify as a commendable effort.

Situation and opportunity should favor Risacher in this race, even if he's not performing up to our standard expectations of a No. 1 pick.

4. Donovan Clingan, Trail Blazers

There are going to be obstacles for Donovan Clingan to overcome as the Portland Trail Blazers figure out a path forward. The obvious one is Deandre Ayton, who is entrenched as the Blazers' starting center with roughly two years and $70 million left on his contract. And, until he's traded, Robert Williams profiles as a rotation-worthy center in his own right.

Despite the frontcourt depth around him, however, Clingan is very clearly the big man of the future in Portland. Maybe the Blazers try the Clingan-Ayton twin towers look, but we all know that won't work. Ayton gets paid a lot, but his effort has never been terribly consistent on either end of the floor. He's built like a Grecian statue, but he doesn't impose his will as often as he should. There are stretches of greatness — such as his last few weeks of the 2023-24 season — but he always seems to fade eventually.

Portland is sure to look for ways out of both Ayton and Williams in due time. Clingan is among the more NBA-ready prospects in this class. He doesn't present the flashiest ceiling, and his limited scoring numbers could impact the Rookie of the Year race. But, Clingan is going to change the geometry of the court with his defense. At 7-foot-3 with a 9-foot-7 standing reach, Clingan is a dominant drop coverage defender. He shut down some of college basketball's top offenses during UConn's second straight title run.

Clingan provides a laundry list of essentials that Portland desperately lacks. He is going to set bone-shattering screens for Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe. He's going to provide a vertical threat at the rim — one who rolls hard and operates with true force. He is going to inhale rebounds, communicate in the middle of the defense, and deter paint touches. Portland needs a backbone. Clingan supplies it.

3. Reed Sheppard, Rockets

Reed Sheppard has a steep hill to climb to consistent minutes with the Houston Rockets, but he should be capable of climbing it. Houston is one of the deepest teams in the league with a laser-focus on winning games and making the playoffs next season. That environment isn't inherently beneficial to a rookie — at least not when it comes to awards — but Sheppard is simply too good, and too ready to contribute.

The Rockets need more 3-point shooting, for one. Sheppard is the best shooting prospect in ages, having drilled 52.1 percent of his long-range attempts as a freshman. He wasn't always shooting on the highest volume at Kentucky, but Sheppard is comfortable shooting off of screens or drilling the occasional pull-up. He can fit into a variety of actions for Ime Udoka's offense, demanding constant attention from the opposing defense.

Sheppard has on and off-ball utility. He profiles most immediately as the Rockets' backup point guard, learning at the heels of Fred VanVleet — another small guard with a sterling defensive reputation and a penchant for long-range jumpers. Sheppard is 6-foot-2 with middling lateral quickness, but he posted a 42.5-inch vertical leap at the Combine and his stock numbers were unreal at Kentucky (2.5 steals, 0.7 blocks). There is a real belief that Sheppard can influence winning on both sides of the court from day one.

He will need to carve out enough minutes between VanVleet, Jalen Green, and Amen Thompson, but Sheppard's skill set is highly scalable. He's due for more on-ball reps, but he is immensely comfortable in a more refined, supportive role. Sheppard can stretch defenses, move without the rock, and operate as a connective passer. His basketball I.Q. is through the roof and he's mentally tough. He should fit into just about any personnel group.

If Sheppard gets minutes and the Rockets make progress in the Western Conference standings, he ought to be in the awards mix.

2. Alex Sarr, Wizards

The cross-section of talent and opportunity should be very favorable for Alex Sarr and the Washington Wizards. The No. 2 pick steps immediately into a starting role on a bad team. The Wizards already traded Deni Avdija and other established weapons could be next. Kyle Kuzma and Corey Kispert are not guaranteed to survive the offseason in DC.

Even with Jordan Poole sucking up oxygen in the backcourt, Sarr is going to have a wide-open runway to explore the breadth of his skill set. The defense is especially important to a Washington team that has struggled to generate stops in recent years. But, Sarr has a ton of untapped potential on the offensive end as well. The Wizards are going to try their hardest to tap into it.

Sarr's movement ability as a 7-footer is patently absurd. He can guard 1-through-5 in his sleep. Sarr needs to add muscle and operate with more physicality, but he's going to rack up steals and blocks while putting together an impressive defensive highlight reel. That stuff tends to matter in the Rookie of the Year race. A lot of voters are going to gravitate toward the flashy, ultra-productive athletic phenom, even if his team wins 10 games total.

He wasn't terribly consistent on offense in Australia's NBL, but Sarr has touch out to the 3-point line, fluid straight-line handles, and enough control of his footwork to score on balletic forays into the paint. If he can hit a steady dose of 3s, beat closeouts, and improve his efficiency around the basket — another key point of emphasis as Sarr enters an NBA strength development program — the Frenchman could make it two straight trophies for his country.

1. Zach Edey, Grizzlies

A lot of baffling responses followed the Memphis Grizzlies' decision to select Zach Edey at No. 9 overall. Edey has always provoked extreme reactions, though, so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise. He was easy to root against at Purdue — labeled as an unethical, foul-grifting mountain who relied on size instead of actual skill.

There is truth to that categorization, but only partial truth. Edey is a giant, even by NBA standards. He's 7-foot-5 in shoes with a 7-foot-11 wingspan. He can dunk without jumping, and he can swat shots from a mile away. He did get to the charity stripe a lot at Purdue, but not because he was a particularly crafty foul-baiter. It's because Edey is 7-foot-5 and 299 pounds. Please try to stop him from proceeding to the rim without committing a violation of some kind, then get back to me.

Edey is the most dominant college basketball player in years. Maybe decades. He was an efficiency monster last season, converting 75.6 percent of his shot attempts at the rim. The Boilermakers essentially tailored their offense around Edey post-ups, which won't happen in the NBA. If anything, that will only improve his efficiency. Edey shot 82.2 percent when rolling to the basket. He's about to set wide screens for Ja Morant, one of the most elusive rim-pressure guards in basketball. Edey is going to help Morant get downhill, then feast on hard rolls to the basket.

With a wide catch radius, soft hands, and unstoppable momentum toward the rim, Edey should thrive in two-man actions with Morant. And, don't think for a second that Edey post-ups are a thing of the past. The Grizzlies can still count on him to punish mismatches on the block. He may not be the most natural fit for Memphis' up-tempo offense, but the Grizzlies will find a way to make it work.

Edey appears to have the inside track to starting alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. in the frontcourt. There's a chance Taylor Jenkins and the Grizzlies opt to keep the lineup small, with JJJ's 3-point shooting and mobility offering its own benefits in the five spot. But, assuming Edey is the heir apparent to Steven Adams, he can bring a new element to the offense with his physicality and high-level rim finishing.

Memphis is a great defensive fit for Edey too, surrounding him with Jackson, Marcus Smart, and other high-level athletes to sit on passing lanes and prevent dribble penetration. Edey's going to put up numbers if the minutes are there. In a "weak" draft, his immediate productivity on a winning team could lead to basketball's most prestigious rookie award.