NFL Playoff Picture: How do Rams, Saints playoff chances move with win or loss?

With Week 16 upon us, there isn't much time left for NFL teams on the bubble to grab hold and control their own destiny. And boy, are there a lot of teams on the playoff bubble in 2023.

Thursday Night Football -- where the Los Angeles Rams will host the New Orleans Saints -- drew a favorable matchup for Week 16 that features two teams who had tepid starts but have improved throughout the year and remain firmly in the playoff picture.

The Rams have won four of their last five and are coming off a win over the Commanders. The Saints have won two in a row, but their Week 15 game was the most complete game in all three phases of the year, despite lacking Chris Olave who will return against the Rams.

With this game contributing heavily to playoff chances, what will the playoff picture look like?

NFC Playoff Picture before Saints vs Rams, Week 16

Here's how things lay out before the game kicks off:

1. San Francisco 49ers*: 11-3
2. Dallas Cowboys*: 10-4
3. Detroit Lions: 10-4
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-7
5. Philadelphia Eagles*
6. Minnesota Vikings: 7-7
7. Los Angeles Rams: 7-7

* indicates the team has secured a playoff berth

Here's how the bubble looks:

• Minnesota Vikings: 7-7
• Los Angeles Rams: 7-7
• Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
• New Orleans Saints: 7-7
• Atlanta Faclons: 6-8
• Green Bay Packers: 6-8
• New York Giants: 5-9
• Chicago Bears: 5-9

There are a whole heck of a lot of teams who could still feasibly snag a playoff spot.

How Saints playoff odds improve with a win, and how Rams would decrease

The Saints are in an interesting position because they could get into the playoffs by winning the NFC South or earning one of the three Wild Card berths. The NFC South is the worst division in football and anyone but the Panthers could still run away with it.

New Orleans sits level with the Bucs at 7-7 but still has one game to play against them, as well as a season-ending game against the Falcons.

But before that, the Rams.

The Saints currently have a 42 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they win, that increases to 71 percent according to the NFL's model.

The Rams come in with a 49 percent chance of making the playoffs. If the Saints beat them, that decreases to 15 percent, all because the Rams only have one realistic way in since the Niners have a firm grasp on the NFC West.

How Rams playoff odds improve with a win, and how Saints would decrease

On the flip side, if the Rams win, their playoff odds will increase from 49 percent to 72 percent. The upside of a win for Los Angeles is slightly more important than the Saints, because the Rams at this point are only fighting a battle on one front compared to the Saints still holding two possible ways in.

A win gets the Rams another notch in the win column while contributing a loss to another team fighting for a Wild Card spot. Same thing next week when Los Angeles plays the Giants.

Meanwhile, in this scenario where the Rams win, the Saints' playoff odds would decrease from 42 percent to 22 percent. Given how condensed the NFC South is, it's not a deathblow to lose especially since the Saints can still contribute one in the loss column for the Falcons and Bucs before the end of the year, but it does make their path more difficult.

Put simply, both teams need to win tonight, and it should make for an extremely exciting contest, especially with a key offensive weapon on his way back for the Saints.

Here's how to watch the game tonight.