Mike Tomlin’s history suggests Russell Wilson's days are numbered as Steelers starter

The Pittsburgh Steelers officially named Russell Wilson QB1 ahead of the regular season, a decision we all saw coming. There was palpable buzz around Justin Fields throughout training camp, but he didn't do enough in preseason action to stake his claim, despite a wide-open window of opportunity.

This was always inevitable on some level. Fields has long been prone to underperforming in the spotlight, while Wilson — a decade older, with a Super Bowl on his resumé — was the favorite to start Week 1 as soon as the ink dried on his contract. Whether he's better or not is almost beside the point. Russ has "earned" the starting job with over a decade of productive football.

Now, just because Russ is QB1, that doesn't necessarily mean he will stay QB1. Fields was impressive in camp and earned the respect of his coaches. Mike Tomlin consistently sung Fields' praises and propped the door open for a QB competition more than we initially expected. He has even teased special plays for Fields during Week 1's matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. The Steelers almost can't help but gas up Fields, even after ostensibly choosing Wilson over him.

There is a credible argument in favor of starting Fields. He is a decade younger than Russ, for one, and the Steelers need to establish a sustainable option at quarterback. It has been an ongoing game of musical chairs since Ben Roethlisberger retired. Fields isn't there yet, but there's a world in which he develops into an everyday starter that Pittsburgh can set and forget atop the depth chart.

The quickest way there is experience. Get Fields as many reps as possible in the offense and hope that he develops outside the constraints of Chicago.

History also favors Fields, as Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated notes.

"It’s much easier, for obvious reasons, to go from Wilson to Fields at midseason than it would be the other way around... In 2022, Tomlin benched Mitch Trubisky in mid-October to go to a first-round rookie in Kenny Pickett, who wasn’t really involved in the quarterback competition that summer between Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. Last year, Pickett might have been benched if he didn’t get hurt in November. Trubisky was benched in favor of Rudolph in Week 16, and Tomlin stuck with Rudolph even though Pickett could’ve played in Weeks 17 and 18, and the team’s wild-card-round loss to the Buffalo Bills."

History suggests that Mike Tomlin will replace Russell Wilson with Justin Fields eventually

Mike Tomlin is no stranger to changing course midseason at the QB position. If anything, Russ being named the day-one starter was equivalent to a benching.

That is a touch extreme, of course, but it sure feels like a matter of time until we see Fields line up under center. Based on what we've seen from Wilson these last couple years in Denver, he is not the Pro Bowl signall-caller of yore. He takes far too many sacks, he lacks the arm strength for explosive throws, and his athleticism has depreciated significantly since departing Seattle.

Now, many of those same weaknesses apply to Fields — the proclivity for sacks, the noodle arm — but what Fields has on his size is age and, consequently, athleticism. He's one of the best pure athletes in the NFL, listed 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds with live-wire speed and incredible power on the ground. Fields can muscle through tackles up the middle, or he can escape to the edge and outrun the majority of defenders. There is undeniable value in a QB who can run as prolifically as Fields. He just needs to sharpen his fundamentals and work on arm talent.

The Steelers almost have to see what Fields can do eventually. Unless the season gets off to a rollicking start with Russ, which is hard to imagine, the stage is already set for Fields. His teammates and coaches love him and the Steelers have every incentive to see if there's something there for the long term. If one current Pittsburgh QB is on the roster next season, it will be Fields. This campaign smells strongly of one-and-done for Russ, and the Steelers' offense just has too many holes to not falter as soon as Wilson takes the field.

Mike Tomlin teams are always good. He's a 10th-level wizard in football form. But, when push comes to shove, this team will need a boost midseason, and that boost will arrive in the form of Justin Fields.