How much will Connor McDavid make on the next contract?

Last offseason, Nathan MacKinnon signed the biggest deal in NHL history. In September 2022, he agreed to an eight-year deal worth $100.8 million. His average salary is $12.6 million, and his 2023-24 actual money salary is $16.5 million. That's an insane number when it comes to NHL players. It's not insane in any other sport (Christian Kirk is making $16.5 million in the NFL and Kyle Hendricks is making the same salary in MLB). The NHL has never seen numbers this high.

MacKinnon isn't even the top guy in the league. While he's having an insane season, including some crazy speed stats from this season, Connor McDavid is largely considered the best player in the NHL. He's the reigning league MVP (winner of the Hart Trophy), and thanks to a huge winning streak by the Edmonton Oilers, he can win the Hart Trophy again.

McDavid still has two more years left after this season. According to the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement, McDavid can negotiate a new deal when he has one year left on his current deal. That means he can sign a new deal legally on July 1, 2025. MacKinnon has absolutely signed a benchmark deal, but another deal could change the landscape.

Elias Pettersson decided to bet on himself this season after a few rough years in Vancouver. Now, don't get us wrong, Pettersson wasn't having a rough season. The team was having trouble building around him. This season, everything is going right. Quinn Hughes is playing at a Norris level. JT Miller is putting up an insane amount of points. Thatcher Demko is playing like one of the best players in the league.

Pettersson is going to sign a massive extension this offseason. Will he sign for more than MacKinnon? While we wouldn't consider Pettersson better than MacKinnon, his situation could drive his number to $13 million or even more.

Back to McDavid, who should be the highest-paid player in the league. The CBA also says that the maximum player contract is 20 percent of the cap. Right now, McDavid is making around 15% of the salary cap, but one has to think it's going to be more on his next deal. Would he get close to the cap, which would be around $16.7 million on a yearly salary?

McDavid doesn't have a Stanley Cup, so he will prioritize winning at least somewhat. So, he won't take the max contract allowance. He will be the highest-paid player in the league, but he won't get close to $16 million. If Pettersson gets the contract we expect him to get (somewhere between $12.5 million and $12.75 million), then we expect McDavid to accept somewhere between $13 million and $13.5 million. The contract will break records, but it will be worth it for everyone involved.

The NHL salary cap is back to rising after years of staying stagnant due to pandemic losses. Now that the cap is rising, McDavid's salary won't hurt as much. The new contract will start when he's 29 years old, and it will pay him through his 37-year-old season (if it's for the expected max of eight years). This might be a problem for most players, but as we're seeing with Sidney Crosby this season, the best of the best can be the best for most of their careers.