PGA Championship cut line prediction 2024: Where will the cut at Valhalla be?

Whether we're talking about Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa or anyone else this week at the 2024 PGA Championship, the best players in the world entered the major championship with a mind for winning the tournament and holding the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday. But before that, any player with those aspirations has a first goal: Making the cut at the PGA Championship.

Given the start we got off to at Valhalla Golf Club, there were always going to be some challenges in making the cut. Even with scoring going low -- a factor in its own right in major championship conditions -- the rain coming into the forecast on a course measuring 7,600+ yards on Friday created plenty of challenges in its own right. And needing to score low became somewhat of a mixed bag as greens were soft but with rain hitting balls in the air and limiting rollout in the fairways... not to mention making the thick rough more difficult.

But with all of this in play, that begs the question of what the cut is going to be at for the 2024 PGA Championship. What will the number be to play the weekend at Valhalla? Let's take a look at the best predictions and projections.

2024 PGA Championship cut line prediction: Latest projections

The most likely 2024 PGA Championship cut number will be -1 after the first two rounds of play at Valhalla. Data Golf's latest probability projections give a 93.4% chance that the cut line will end up at -1, by far the biggest projection. Earlier in the day, the likeliest cut line was Even par but there is now just a projected 4.1% chance of that happening. Meanwhile, even though the ESPN broadcast keeps mentioning the cut moving to -2, the projections currently leave only a 2.5% chance of that happening.

2024 PGA Championship cut: Notable players in danger of not making the weekend

With the cut line anywhere from -1 to +1 depending on how scoring goes on Friday, there are a number of big-name players and even some relative contenders in danger of missing the cut. Tiger Woods is the biggest, who finished his first round at +1 and will need to do some work to ensure he plays the weekend. That can also be said of Ludvig Åberg, Tommy Fleetwoos, Cameron Young and Wyndham Clark with the same score.

Players like Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Akshay Bhatia have even more work to do after entering the second round at +2 or worse.

Then there are players like Will Zalatoris, Tyrrell Hatton, Byeong Hun An, Rickie Fowler and LIV Golf star Talor Gooch who came into the round a bit more comfortable, especially after solid starts on Friday, but still needing to make sure they hold it together in order to see the weekend.