PGA Championship sleeper picks 2024: 5 dark horses who could win the Wanamaker Trophy

So much of the talk coming into the 2024 PGA Championship is about the favorites and, admittedly, deservedly so. Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka all enter after winning their last starts and with history on the line for each of them. And that's before even talking about the likes of Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and many more. But one thing about the PGA Championship is that sleepers can always make some noise.

Whether we're talking about Shaun Micheel or Rich Beem or any number of longshots in history who have won the PGA Championship, it feels like more of a factor at this major than at any other. Sure, we've had some heavy-hitters really take hold of the Wanamaker Trophy in recent history... but that could just mean we're due.

And if we're due, that means we have to find a dark horse (or five) who have a chance to win. With that, let's dive right into our five PGA Championship sleeper picks who can make some real noise at Valhalla this week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided. All bets are 0.1 units for the official record.

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5. Alex Noren (+12500) could win the PGA Championship playing like he has been

My Green on the Greens co-host Iain MacMillan's darling for the past month, Alex Noren at 125/1 is almost criminal with how well he's playing. Yes, a lot of that is due to the fact that the perception of Valhalla is that driving distance is of paramount importance, but there is more to this course and finding success than just that. And Noren fits the mold.

Noren over the last 16 rounds ranks Top 25 in this field in weighted SG: Approach, bogey avoidance, weighted SG: Total, 200+ yard Par 3 scoring, SG on Par 4s measuring 450-500, and overall on SG: Putting on bentgrass. He's a steady player who actually, despite not being long off of the tee, checks all of the other boxes to do well at this major.

His finishes haven't totally backed it up with three straight Top 25 finishes but only one inside the Top 10. However, he's playing statistically like a player who is due for a huge pop week, and who says it couldn't be at a PGA Championship?

4. Sepp Straka (+11000, FD) is being slept on at the PGA Championship

As mentioned, there has to be a special recipe, a certain caliber of player who isn't long off of the tee who is going to have success at the 2024 PGA Championship. And like Noren, what we're seeing from Sepp Straka lately suggests he is absolutely that type of player.

While he's outside the Top 90 in driving distance over the last 16 rounds in the field, the other numbers jump off the page. He's 17th in weighted SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in weighted SG: Approach, 26th in bogey avoidance, and most importantly, second in the field in strokes gained on Par 4s measuring 450-500 yards. It's a profile that makes a ton of sense for how a shot-hitter can succeed on this course.

Coming in off of three straight Top 11 finishes and playing quietly like one of the better players in the world, he's worth a look at Valhalla.

3. Kurt Kitayama (+20000, FD) is a huge longshot who could win the PGA Championship

We're going way, way down the board (not down to Michael Block or anything, but still pretty far) before we get to Kurt Kitayama at 200/1. He's not a name I've heard too much about but the metrics at least hold some intrigue for him to have success this week at Valhalla.

Over the last 16 rounds, Kitayama is Top 35 in the field in weighted SG: Off-the-Tee, weighted SG: Approach, bogey avoidance, driving distance, Par 4 scoring on holes measuring 450-500 yards and proximity from 200-225 yards out. He's actually Top 10 in those last two categories as well, all of which are incredibly important this week at Valhalla.

It's definitely a longshot that he wins simply because I'm not sure we've seen anything from Kitayama that suggests he can compete at this level of field. Having said that, he's still worth a sprinkle but could be even more valuable as a look for a Top 20 or even Top 30 play.

2. Jason Day (+7500, FD) shouldn't have this long of odds at the PGA Championship

When you look at the final leaderboard for the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, you won't see Jason Day in the Top 10. What that doesn't tell you, however, is that the Aussie was T4 and just three strokes off of the lead entering the final round when he struggled a bit with a 1-over Sunday that dropped him back. But he's played well in a major at this venue.

Day is now coming off of a T4 at the Wells Fargo and has been enjoying one of his best putting seasons in a long time. His short game is elite and his ball striking is passable, which is a combo that can work at this course. That's especially true when you consider that he's still a quite long driver of the golf ball, which is a big factor this week.

Even if his ball striking isn't elite overall, he's still been gaining off the tee slightly and has been high in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 16 rounds. Overall, with his form looking quite like prime Jason Day along with his history here, he's well worth a look at 75/1.

1. Byeong Hun An (+6600) is the most popular sleepr at the PGA Championship

Virtually anything you see about dark horse picks at Valhalla is going to include Byeong Hun An. He's by far the most popular sleeper I've seen mentioned throughout the week. But here's the thing: An absolutely deserves that treatment based on what he's done thus far in 2024.

His last two starts are the crown jewel with a solo third at the Wells Fargo and a T4 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. But he was also a solid T16 at The Masters. Statistically, he's 18th in weighted Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last 16 rounds and 14th on weighted approach over that span. Even better, he's also gaining with the putter too over that time, including leading the field at the Wells Fargo, which has long been his biggest issue.

An is an elite driver and overall ball striker who seems to have found something with the short game this year, which has led to tremendous results. And though this is a major championship, it's impossible to ignore how good of a fit he could be at the venue this week.