3 reasons the Phillies will win the World Series, 2 reasons they won't after historic start

Quick: which National League team has had the most postseason success the last two years? Most fans' knee-jerk response would be the Dodgers or the Braves, but for as good as Atlanta and L.A. have been in the regular season, they've been upended by Wild Card teams once October has rolled around. The answer, with two appearances in the NLCS and one in the World Series, is the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Fightin' Phils have eliminated the Braves from the playoffs each of the past two years, but this year, they've decided not to wait until October to assert their dominance. Philly is six games ahead in the NL East, and actually has the best record in all of baseball through 50 games.

The Phillies are the first team since the 2001 Mariners to begin a season with at least 36 wins in its first 50 games. In fact, only 25 teams since 1901 have accomplished the feat, and 11 of them went on to win the World Series. Will Rob Thomson's team become the next?

There are still well over 100 games left in the regular season, but the Phillies are already in elite company, so today we're looking at three reasons why they'll go all the way this year, and two reasons to believe they'll come up short. Let's get into it.

The Phillies will win the World Series because they have the best starting pitching in baseball

Much like the mid-range jumper in basketball, starting pitching has become seriously de-emphasized in today's MLB. Gone are the days of workhorse starters that eat up innings every fifth day. Pitchers are dropping like flies, with more and more undergoing Tommy John surgery every day.

The Phillies, though, have bucked the trend, as their starters have run laps around the rest of the league in nearly every way. Philly's starters have pitched the most innings, struck out the most batters, and put up the best ERA in the majors. No other team has two complete game shutouts, but the Phils do, and their 27 wins from starters is four better than the closest team. By pitiful comparison, the Mets have seven.

Stats are all well and good, but one look at the Phillies' rotation proves that the numbers don't lie. According to both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, Zack Wheeler has been the most valuable pitcher in baseball since coming to the City of Brotherly Love in 2020. Wheeler is the staff ace, and he's once again having a fantastic season, with a 2.52 ERA and the best WHIP of his career.

As excellent as Wheeler has been, though, he hasn't even been the best pitcher on his team. That honor belongs to Ranger Suarez, who is the current frontrunner for the NL Cy Young along with Shota Imanaga of Cubs. The lefty leads the league with a perfect 9-0 record and a .788 WHIP, but his most impressive stat is that he's averaging nearly seven innings per start, which is practically unheard of today.

Philly also has Aaron Nola, who is fresh off signing a seven-year, $172 million contract this past offseason. Nola hasn't quite been Wheeler or Suarez, but he's not far behind. He's pitched nearly as many innings as Suarez, and his 3.05 ERA is 12th in the National League. Nola has also been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, having started 32 games each of the past three years.

Philly's three-headed monster at the top of their rotation is better than anything their opponents will be able to throw at them in the playoffs. The Braves lost Spencer Strider for the year, and though they've gotten phenomenal work from Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez to start the year, the jury is still out on whether they can continue doing it all season. The Dodgers have a ridiculous lineup, but their pitching is a MASH unit, with Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin, Emmet Sheehan, and Dustin May all on the shelf for the year with serious elbow injuries.

The Phillies won't win the World Series because they're not as good as their record says they are

Numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth, either. The Phillies have the best record in baseball, and that can't be disputed. If there's a reason for concern, though, it's that they've achieved that record by beating up on the easiest schedule in the league.

Philadelphia's opponents collectively sport a .465 winning percentage, which is basically like if the Phillies faced the Cardinals or the Tigers every day. With all due respect to Oli Marmol and AJ Hinch, that's not exactly Murderer's Row.

Philly can't be blamed for the schedule they've faced, and they should be commended for taking care of business in such dominant fashion, as they've gone a combined 18-3 against the lowly Marlins, Rockies, Mets, Nationals, and Angels. We'll get a better idea of what they can do when they face the top teams, as they've yet to face the Dodgers, Cubs, or Brewers, and only played three so far against the Braves. That was the opening series of the season, and Atlanta won two of three.

The Phillies are good, no doubt about it, but are they good enough to win the World Series? We just don't know yet.

The Phillies will win the World Series because they're more than just the Bryce Harper show

Bryce Harper gets much of the attention in the Philadelphia lineup, and rightly so. Both on and off the field, Harper has been everything Philly fans could have hoped for and more since signing with the team in free agency, and for as good as he's been in the regular season, he's saved his best for the playoffs. There's a lot more to like about this lineup than just Harper, though, and it's why Philly is better positioned to win the World Series now than they were the last two years.

There's not a weakness in this lineup, which has to be exhausting for opposing pitchers. Everyone knows about how dangerous Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto are. Nick Castellanos is one of the few hitters on this team that have struggled, but as soon as an announcer needs to tell us about a new national tragedy or a personal shortcoming, Castellanos will surely snap out of his funk.

It's the rest of the lineup that has elevated the Phillies to new heights (Philadelphia pun intended). Alec Bohm couldn't be more different than the guy that once said, "I ******* hate this place" in the midst of a rough game. Bohm entered the day tied with Mookie Betts and Luis Arraez for third in the National League batting race with a .330 average. He's been far from a slap hitter, though, as he leads the majors with 20 doubles and is tied for the league lead with 46 RBIs.

The Phillies have the second-highest batting average in the majors, and the highest on-base percentage. All of the aforementioned players have contributed to that, but Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott, and Edmundo Sosa have filled out the bottom of the order beautifully. Stott especially has been a revelation, with an .821 OPS, 30 RBIs, and 13 steals.

Philly will be even more dangerous once shortstop Trea Turner returns from a hamstring strain that has kept him out since the beginning of the month, meaning the best is yet to come for this lineup. That should be a scary thought for the rest of the league.

The Phillies won't win the World Series because the Dodgers are just too good

Ever since the Dodgers acquired Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto this winter, it's seemed like a fait accompli that L.A. was on the doorstep of beginning a dynasty. No other team can match the collection of talent that Dave Roberts' club possesses, and it's almost comical how stacked the Dodgers' lineup is. Between Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez, the Dodgers basically have an All-Star team coming to the plate every day.

Ohtani has somehow exceeded impossibly lofty expectations. He currently leads the majors in average and OPS, and he's stolen 13 bases without being caught once. We spoke above about the injuries that have befallen L.A.'s rotation, but even with such severe attrition, the 1-2 punch of Glasnow and Yamamoto has been enough to carry the day.

Glasnow leads the league in strikeouts with 87 in 11 starts, and Yamamoto has been almost unhittable on the road, allowing only four runs in four stars. The recent return of Walker Buehler from Tommy John surgery has been a bit of a mixed bag, but he has four more months to find his old form. If he does, the Dodgers will have a playoff rotation that can rival even Philly's, and oh by the way, Clayton Kershaw is also expected back later this summer.

One huge factor working in the Dodgers' favor is the bullpen, where they have an ERA that is more than a full run lower than Philly.

At the end of the day, the Phillies are a very very good baseball team, but the Dodgers seem inevitable.

The Phillies will win the World Series because they have the best home-field advantage

The Phillies have fought their way through the playoffs as a Wild Card team the last two years, but if this season continues the way it's been going, that won't be the case this October. This should make the rest of the National League very afraid, because since opening Citizens Bank Park in 2004, the Phils are 28-13 there, which is the best home playoff winning percentage in MLB history.

There's not much you can say about Philadelphia sports fans that hasn't already been said in hundreds of police reports, but one thing they know how to do is get loud in October. Citizens Bank Park turns into the Thunderdome for every Phillies playoff tilt, and the current roster definitely feeds off of that energy.

Let's use Atlanta as an example. The Braves have had home field advantage over the Phillies each of the past two years, but it hasn't mattered. Each year, Philly stole a game in Atlanta, then won both games at home to win the series 3-1. If Philly can hold on to win the NL East, can you really picture Atlanta beating them in a series in which they have to steal back home field? And without Spencer Strider? The Braves are good, but the Phillies have been their Kryptonite. I don't see it happening.

Baseball has a long, long season, and a lot can change between Opening Day and the playoffs. Nobody can say with certainty whether the Phillies will actually win the World Series for the first time since 2008, but with a trio of outstanding starters, a deep, relentless lineup, and an unprecedented postseason home field advantage, there's a solid chance that the Philadelphia Police Department will need to grease up some light poles this year.