Predicting where the top 10 soon-to-be free agent relievers will land

We're only a few months away from free agency and are set for a great class of pitchers available to sign new deals. Between starters and relievers, there is plenty to go around for teams looking to improve and compete next season.

I shared my predictions piece on where I believe the top ten starting pitchers will land, and now it's time to tackle predictions for the top ten relievers that will be on the market. Let's dive right in.

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10. Brooks Raley

Brooks Raley pitched seven scoreless frames in 2024 before going down with season-ending Tommy John surgery. Between 2022 and 2023, Raley was a fantastic reliever for the Rays and Mets, averaging a 2.74 ERA throughout his last 108.1 innings. It was a critical blow for New York's bullpen this season when they lost Raley, but I can certainly envision the team bringing him back on a one-year deal for next season and running it back. We will see if he's ready for Opening Day 2025, but regardless, his surgery was early enough this season that he shouldn't miss much time next year, if any.

Prediction: New York Mets

9. Yimi Garcia

The Los Angeles Dodgers are once again going to have quite a bit to spend this winter. With an already stacked lineup and starting rotation, I expect them to swoop in and scoop multiple late-inning relievers; Yimi Garcia and his 2.68 ERA would be welcomed in L.A. with opened arms, and given how strong of pitching infrastructure the team has, along with some of the deepest pockets in the league this winter, it's easy to see Garcia being enticed to head to Southern Cali, but it's also easy to see him continue his success.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

8. Paul Sewald

Paul Sewald has had an underwhelming 2024 campaign thus far. He lost closing duties in Arizona but has tossed three scoreless innings recently, so he may be given another chance, but that remains to be seen. For now, he holds a 3.69 ERA. Toronto's bullpen has been abysmal, with a 5.02 ERA that ranks 28th in MLB. They will definitely be adding relievers to their roster this winter. Sewald should only be able to secure a short-term deal, perhaps two years, with the second being a club option, and if that's the case, Toronto should jump on it and hope for a bounce-back season.

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

7. AJ Minter

Currently on the IL with a hip issue, AJ Minter is set to hit free agency this winter. With the Braves unsure if he'll play again this season, chances are his health can come into question, and Minter can be had for someone at a better price than he would have otherwise commanded. The long ball has not been his friend this year, but he's still had solid numbers across the board, posting a 2.62 ERA this season.

I expect the Diamondbacks to move on from Paul Sewald, who is having a down year. I also expect them to try to land a closer that can slam the door but ultimately get outbid by other teams with heavier relief needs. Therefore, Arizona may swoop in and grab Minter from free agency, assuming he passes a physical and appears good to go for 2025. He has a career 3.28 ERA but has averaged a 2.85 over the past five seasons, or 243 innings pitched.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

6. Blake Treinen

The San Diego Padres were a team that, again, went all-in at the trade deadline, picking up key relievers Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. They acquired others, but these two were the marquee names that were sent to San Diego. Pairing them with Robert Suarez, who is already an elite closer this year, gives the Padres one of the best bullpens in baseball. Scott, however, is set to hit free agency this winter, and the team will likely look to replace his spot on the roster with a veteran presence on a short-term deal.

Blake Treinen fits that mold as a solid reliever who could fill in to close games if needed but doesn't have to be brought into that role specifically. As stated, the Padres will already have two late-inning guys, Adam and Suarez, so they likely won't go all out for the upper-tier closers in free agency, like Scott, who will be looking for his pay-day. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Dodgers move on from Treinen with their eyes on young arms this winter, and if that's the case, San Diego is a perfect fit that's already close to home.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

5. Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is enjoying another good season in Boston, where he has recorded a 2.95 ERA and 21 saves this year. A four-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer, Jansen has a league-leading 447 saves among active pitchers and continues to find ways to remain dominant. After this season, he is set to become a free agent once more, and even though he'll be entering his age-37 season, recording a sub-3.00 ERA speaks for itself. I predict he will stay in Boston on a new deal, most likely landing a two-year contract, with the second being a club option.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

4. Carlos Estevez

Traded for at the MLB trade deadline, Carlos Estevez has been a success in 2024, and more so with the Philadelphia Phillies. He owned a sparkly 2.38 ERA when Philly picked him up, and since has recorded for scoreless appearances, bringing his number down to 2.08, since being acquired. The Phillies are poised for another playoff run this year, and if Estevez can be solid for them down the stretch, this seems like the type of move that will make sense for both sides. I expect Estevez to test free agency but ultimately wind up back in Philly next year.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

3. Kirby Yates

With Blake Treinen walking, the Dodgers will look at late-game relievers this winter. They have a lot of money coming off the books and have the roster spots to pick up whoever they want. They already have Evan Phillips, but I envision the Dodgers building a super bullpen this winter with at least three guys who could all be closers if they needed to turn to one of them at any point. In the same way, Los Angeles has stacked their lineup and starting rotation, so it will be no surprise this winter when they load up on relievers and have the most stacked 26-man roster, perhaps ever, next season.

Yates currently has a 1.08 ERA and will be highly sought after, but the Dodgers have too much money this winter for anybody to compete with them besides the New York Mets. They will be happy to overpay if they get their guy, so expect the Dodgers to be in the thick of every top-name free agent this winter, especially regarding relievers.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Tanner Scott

The Chicago Cubs will need to swim in the deep end this winter, and the team President of Baseball Operations will have to get uncomfortable if the team wishes to compete moving forward. The Chicago Cubs primarily are not in a playoff spot due to the 21 blown saves in 45 opportunities they have accumulated on the season. If the team converted even five of those, their record would be good enough to be in a Wild Card spot. Given how strong their starting rotation is, look for the team to improve their bullpen this winter vastly.

Tanner Scott will be a great option. Ideally, the team will need two relievers who will be available. They have found stabilization in Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, and Jorge Lopez. However, Lopez is set to hit free agency, and the current team closer Hector Neris. Neris has a club option for 2025, but it would be inadvisable for the Cubs to pick that up, given that his 3.43 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 1.452 WHIP leave a considerable amount to be desired. My Pick here for the Cubs is Tanner Scott.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

1. Clay Holmes

Over the past three seasons, Clay Holmes has recorded 69 saves for the New York Yankees and averaged a 2.73 ERA. Earning his second All-Star appearance in the past three seasons this year, Holmes is set to hit free agency. However, he will not go far, as the Yankees won't want their primary reliever to walk in free agency.

He has underperformed this season, blowing a league-leading nine saves thus far. Still, he spent the last four years in New York, and should he finish the season strong, perform well in the postseason, etc, there's no reason to think that the Yankees wouldn't want a reunion. Holmes will stay in the Bronx on a two-year deal.

Prediction: New York Yankees