Ranking 5 potential Hawks targets with No. 1 pick

The basketball gods awarded the Atlanta Hawks with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. After getting smacked in the Play-In Tournament by the Chicago Bulls, Atlanta was dealt the 10th-best odds to land No. 1 overall — just three percent. This is a historic day for the Hawks franchise and a major bright spot on the otherwise gloomy horizon for a tortured fanbase.

We don't really know what the future holds for Atlanta. Trae Young is heavily involved in trade rumors after another disappointing season. According to Yahoo's Jake Fischer, there is "growing belief" the Hawks will consider dealing the All-Star point guard. Meanwhile, Dejounte Murray was a popular name on the chopping block at the deadline. The Hawks could start floating his name to other teams again.

Moving up from No. 10 to No. 1 certainly doesn't eliminate the uncertainty around Atlanta's offseason. If anything, it is now amplified. If the Hawks are going to wipe the slate clean, the No. 1 pick is a great starting point. If Atlanta wants to double down on the current core and swing for a major veteran upgrade, the No. 1 pick is a hugely valuable trade chip. Even in a "weak" draft.

The incoming rookie class is certainly unique. Most summers, there is an obvious, sometimes even undisputed top pick. Victor Wembanyama was an outlier among outliers, but names like Zion Williamson, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz come to mind. That is not the case in 2024. The Hawks have options. Normally there aren't five names worth talking about at No. 1, but there is right now.

Your faith in the Hawks' front office will determine how you feel about such optionality. The pressure is certainly higher with the top pick. If Atlanta bombs it, people will talk. If the Hawks were to bomb the No. 10 pick, it wouldn't stand out as much in the broader history of the NBA.

Here are the best prospects available to Atlanta, ranked by their talent and how well they address the Hawks' current needs.

5. Reed Sheppard would contribute from Day 1 for Hawks

If the Hawks still plan to win games next season — a significant if — there ought to be real consideration given to Reed Sheppard. There are a couple undersized Kentucky guards kicking around the mid-to-upper lottery, but Sheppard would look the most immediately comfortable as Trae Young's running mate. It's largely unheard of to draft 6-foot-2 guards No. 1 overall these days, but Sheppard was historically good as a freshman, and this is a historically mediocre draft. Sometimes the stars align.

Sheppard shot 52.1 percent from 3-point range as a freshman. Over the whole season. Some will rightfully point to his limited volume compared to higher-usage prospects, but Sheppard looked comfortable firing under duress and even displayed on-ball juice. While not especially explosive, Sheppard has enough speed to torch an errant closeout, get two feet in the paint, and make a decision on the move. He's a sharp passer and a capable in-between scorer, blessed with soft touch on floaters and compact pull-up mechanics.

Kentucky gradually increased Sheppard's workload as the season progressed, often with great results. He was the Wildcats' best player by a country mile despite coming off the bench, offering John Calipari a steadfast decision-maker and a true impact defender on the perimeter.

Sheppard's defense next to Trae Young is a concern, to be clear, but he was a constant source of trouble for opposing offenses in the SEC. What he lacks in size and athleticism, Sheppard makes up for with quick hands (2.5 steals) and sound fundamentals. He has timing down to a science and causes elite levels of havoc as a helper. That should allow Sheppard and Young to coexist well enough, especially if Atlanta can improve the defense elsewhere in free agency.

Read our full Reed Sheppard scouting report here.

4. Matas Buzelis would provide Hawks with another dynamic wing

A bumpy season with the G League Ignite left scouts mixed on Matas Buzelis. At the end of the day, however, only so many 6-foot-9 wings come along with genuine dribble-pass-shoot equity. Buzelis has a diverse skill set and, more importantly, it's adaptable. He supplied chameleonic flexibility to Ignite, stepping into a far more central role late in the season after Ron Holland suffered a wrist injury.

Buzelis is not without his flaws — he struggles against pressure as a ball-handler and he's exploitable one-on-one defensively — but few prospects check as many boxes. He's an excellent team defender, averaging 1.9 blocks per game in the G League. His activity level and instincts as a weak-side rim protector are severely underrated. Offensively, Buzelis is comfortable spotting up behind the 3-point line, attacking downhill, or connecting dots as a passer.

He lacks the strength and ball control to navigate tight spaces off the bounce, but Buzelis is hard to stop once he gets momentum toward the rim. He can hang for finesse finishes and he displays great touch on floaters and hook shots. He struggled from 3-point range with Ignite (26.1 percent), but Buzelis' touch is a positive indicator, and he hit 3s far more efficiently in high school. He also made a nice living on contested mid-range jumpers last season, including his impressive game-winner over Brandon Miller in the Rising Stars Challenge.

Buzelis moves well without the rock and processes the game at a high level. He delivers advanced passes on the move and should operate well in two-man actions on the perimeter, perhaps as a screener for Atlanta's backcourt. The future of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray is unclear at best, but Buzelis would benefit from one (or two) elite table-setters who can streamline his responsbilities in the early going.

The Hawks need a proper star on the wing in order to take the next step. Buzelis certainly offers that potential.

Read our full Matas Buzelis scouting report here.

3. Hawks can gamble on primary initiator upside of Nikola Topic

This would be a pick based on talent, not fit. Nikola Topic is a top-3 prospect barring severe injury concerns and Atlanta should do its research, even if the fit isn't immediately clear. Topic is a ball-dominant point guard, listed at 6-foot-6 with jet engines attached to his shoes. He isn't the shiftiest creator, but Topic does a great job at mixing speeds and lulling his defender to sleep before exploding down the lane with a vicious first step.

We are experiencing a renaissance of sorts for guards who rely on outlier craft and skill to compensate for limited athleticism. Topic is not particularly strong or explosive. He's quick, but he won't soar above the rim without a comfortable launchpad. What makes him special is the touch, the finesse. Topic is a constant source of rim pressure, relentlessly penetrating the defense and carving out scoring opportunities in the paint. He has mastered a robust array of arhythmic finishes and trick shots, capable of kissing the rock off the glass at absurd angles to avoid rim protection.

He will face a new challenge against NBA-level defense, but Topic's speed, touch, and basketball I.Q. — all of which accompany great positional size — is hard to argue with. He doesn't shoot a ton of 3s, but it's easy to project forward with confidence due to how well Topic finishes inside the arc. Touch is the ultimate indicator for shooting potential, and Topic has no shortage of it.

For Atlanta, picking Topic would essentially force the front office into a decision. Either trade both All-Star guards, or trade at least one. Topic is the easiest pick if Atlanta plans to hit the reset button and remove both their prized guards from the equation. If the Hawks plan to just trade Murray and keep Young, however, there's a world in which Topic still thrives. He puts more pressure on the rim than Murray and generally makes quick decisions. Trae Young can share the floor with another ball-handler; Dejounte has simply never bought into the necessary approach.

Read our full Nikola Topic scouting report here.

2. Alex Sarr is the clear frontrunner for the Hawks

Most mock drafts project French 7-footer Alex Sarr to Atlanta with the No. 1 pick. That would be a difficult choice to argue. The Hawks' defense was a complete disaster last season, and Sarr is arguably the most impactful defender on the board. At the very least, he presents the highest ceiling due to his absurd mobility and vertical pop.

Sarr can thrive as the anchor of various defensive schemes. He can hang at the rim in drop coverage, defend at the level of the screen, or switch and guard on the perimeter. He is the rare five-position defender — a 7-footer who can actually slide his feet with guards, stonewall the point of attack, and cover large swaths of the court due to his wing-like agility.

The Hawks need that. Clint Capela's days are numbered and even if the Hawks maintain faith in Onyeka Okongwu, the defense isn't where it needs to be with him on the floor. Sarr should, in theory, offer the flexibility to run two-big lineups. He shot 3s at a respectable clip for Perth. While not elite, he will at least demand attention and keep defenses honest. When offered enough space to attack, Sarr has the speed and coordination to eat up space on drives to the rim and score with balletic footwork in the paint. Whether he gets all the way to the cup or spins for a mid-range fade, Sarr's upside extends to both ends of the court.

Hopefully Atlanta keeps Trae Young around for at least one more season if Sarr is the pick. Atlanta doesn't control its own immediate draft future because of the Dejounte trade, so there's no pressure to hammer the rebuild button. For all his faults, Trae is a masterful playmaker who sets up his teammates for success. Sarr would benefit from Young's ability to manipulate the defense in pick-and-rolls, draw two defenders, and spoon-feed easy looks at the rim.

Read our full Alex Sarr scouting report here.

1. Ron Holland is the Hawks' best bet with No. 1 pick

The Ron Holland buzz has died down since before the season, when he was slotted No. 1 on most boards. Spurning his native Texas Longhorns for the G League Ignite program ultimately backfired for Holland. He was a square peg forced into a round hole, leaned on as the top option despite Ignite's god-awful guard play and severely cramped spacing.

Holland struggled with 3-point shooting and turnovers — not to mention an injury that ended his season early — but all of that is in the rearview mirror. Holland displays enough touch around the basket and at the charity stripe (72.8 percent) to proceed with cautious optimism about the jumper. He is a notoriously hard worker, and all it takes is a league-average stroke to unlock Holland's greatest attribute.

Atlanta should be intrigued by Holland's potential as a slasher on the wing. The Hawks have struggled to mine consistent production from their wing collective in recent years. Jalen Johnson is a real discovery and De'Andre Hunter is categorically fine, but Holland would offer the highest ceiling of any current Hawk (not named Trae Young). At 6-foot-7, Holland is a slippery driver who learned how to mix speeds and keep his defender off balance as his season progressed. He can hang for tough finishes in traffic, or explode vertically for a dunk. His floater package and mid-range pull-ups are promising.

Active off the ball and decisive with it, Holland has the ideal skill set to complement Young in the Hawks' offense. Atlanta needs a wing that will beat closeouts, put pressure on the rim, and create off of drives. Holland displays nice instincts as a passer, even if he still needs to clean up his decision-making and trim the turnovers. As the game slows down and Holland has time to refine his skill set, all the pieces are there for a modern success story. The currency of modern contenders is versatile, playmaking wings. That is the archetype Atlanta should most want to invest in. Holland plays some mean defense, too, so he addresses the Hawks' shortcomings on both ends.

Read our full Ron Holland scouting report here.