Replacing John Schneider comes with a big ask for Ross Atkins, Blue Jays

After back-to-back postseason appearances and making the playoffs in three of the last four years, the Toronto Blue Jays will be watching how things unfold from the comfort of their own couches like the rest of us MLB fans.

This was not the expectation. The Blue Jays expected to, at the very least, compete for a postseason spot if not sit comfortably in one by late September. Unfortunately, very little went right from the start for this team, and they waved the white flag by the trade deadline.

You'd think that the Blue Jays finishing with their worst record in a half-decade despite the lofty expectations would result in some sort of major change being made this offseason, but all reporting suggests that the status quo will remain. Very little, if any, changes are expected, and nothing major is expected to take place.

Ross Atkins has been public enemy No. 1 for much of the season, but John Schneider hasn't been far behind. Firing Scheider wouldn't have as big of an impact as letting Atkins go, but at least it'd be something, right?

Firing Schneider sounds pretty good in theory, but there are a couple of problems. First, how sure are we that they'd be much better with someone else? This feels more like an Atkins issue in Toronto than a Schneider one. Second, how sure are we that the Jays can get a better replacement? Their job isn't the most appealing one out there for several reasons.

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Replacing John Schneider might be a tougher task for Ross Atkins than we thought

There are some pros for a potential managerial candidate to consider. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a stud. The Jays are a team willing to spend more than most. They have the makings of a solid rotation. Unfortunately, the cons greatly outweigh the good.

Yes, the Jays do have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but how long will that be for? He's under contract through the 2025 campaign, and no extension appears to be close. That could change in an eyeblink, but how likely is it that a manager will be willing to join a team that could lose its best player the following winter or even trade deadline? Oh yeah, Bo Bichette is in that same exact situation.

The Blue Jays also do have the makings of a solid rotation, but it's also very old. Kevin Gausman is 33. Chris Bassitt is 35. Jose Berrios is 30. Those are the three best starters in this rotation, and beyond that, there are massive question marks. How good is Bowden Francis, really? Will the Jays get anything out of Alek Manoah anytime soon? The reliable arms are old, and the young arms have massive question marks.

The Jays are willing to spend more than most as mentioned prior, but how much do they have at their disposal this winter? They sold at the deadline, but the most expensive player dealt was Yusei Kikuchi, who was set to hit free agency anyway. Right now, they rank 13th in expected payroll for next season, and that's without making any major moves. Remember, this is a team that's going to finish 10+ games under .500. A lot of moves will need to be made for them to even be competitive in 2025, so a ton of payroll would need to be added for the Jays to compete for a postseason spot. Will ownership allow them to spend what's needed?

Whoever the Jays hire if they did fire Schneider would presumably have more than one year to prove themselves, but still, it's not as if the future is bright in Toronto. As mentioned prior, the rotation is old, and their best players are set to become free agents after 2025. To make matters worse, even after selling, their farm system is among the worst in baseball, according to MLB.com.

There are only 30 jobs, so the Jays would generate interest if their managerial position was open, but would a guy like Skip Schumaker want to come north of the border and pick this situation over a different one that presents itself? Unfortunately, it's really hard to envision that right now.

Firing John Schneider sounds like the easy move in theory, and might still be, but replacing him is a lot tougher than most would imagine.