Ross Atkins stance on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade could be a lame PR tactic destined to backfire

The Toronto Blue Jays are clear sellers ahead of Tuesday's MLB trade deadline. We've already seen Ross Atkins shuffle the deck a bit, sending Nate Pearson to the Chicago Cubs, Yimi Garcia to the Seattle Mariners, and Danny Jansen to the Boston Red Sox. This is only the beginning, too. The Jays are here to clean house.

Well, almost clean house. The last-place team in the AL East has complicated decisions to make on its two stars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. The latter is openly lobbying friends for a trade, while Guerrero — easily Toronto's most valuable piece — has expressed a desire to remain north of the border.

According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the Blue Jays plan to "deal away a number of players... but not Vladimir Guerrero Jr." It's a simple plan to execute: wring the roster for as much value as possible without touching Guerrero, the Blue Jays' reigning All-Star at first base and a clear fan favorite. Guerrero's reported desire to remain in Toronto is also a positive indicator that an extension could come to fruition down the line. He's eligible to hit free agency at the end of next season.

Guerrero's production is undeniable, as is the innate value of a 25-year-old Gold Glove first baseman with four All-Stars on his resumé. He's slashing .301/.373/.491 with 18 home runs and 62 RBI on the season. Of course Toronto prefers to keep him around. And, of course, other teams around the league are circling like vultures, hoping the Blue Jays have a change of heart.

Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade stance could backfire in spectacular fashion

The real debate comes down to how quickly one believes Toronto can turn this ship around. Guerrero can leave in a little more than a year. That is very much still on the table. If the Blue Jays continue to struggle, then get blown out of the water in a free agent bidding war, it could leave them empty-handed. By trading Guerrero now, however, Toronto guarantees a haul of future impact bats or leverage pitchers to populate their farm system.

According to Passan's report, teams around the league are hoping that the Blue Jays' projected desire to keep Guerrero is simply a PR stunt. A ploy to increase the inevitable return.

"Teams starving for offense long for Toronto to make Guerrero available -- and are hopeful that the Blue Jays' public-facing attitude toward any deal is simply a negotiating tactic to drive up the return. (They also acknowledge this is unlikely.)"

All the public indicators point to Guerrero finishing the season in Toronto, even if Bichette and other key pieces are dealt. Again, there is merit to that strategy, but the risk is pronounced. With the marketplace as it is — brimming with buyers and short on true sellers — the price for Guerrero will skyrocket. The Blue Jays would essentially be able to hold court for contenders in need of offense, driving up the price by forcing front offices to one-up each other right until the final buzzer.

For as valuable as Guerrero is, the Blue Jays are hardly in a position to project confidence about the future. Clearly Vlad is happy in Toronto, but times change quickly in the MLB and losing gets tiresome. If the rest of the roster is gutted, there's no guarantee that Guerrero maintains his attitude of contentedness. And, if the Blue Jays can't hammer out an extension to Guerrero's liking, there is far too much risk associated with an open free agency period. The Blue Jays are not notoriously high bidders.

Maybe Toronto makes the hard call and trades Guerrero this week. But, if Ross Atkins stands pat and stakes the future on the present, it could be the move that ultimately spells the end of his rocky GM tenure. That is the risk he (and the Blue Jays) are taking.