US Open dark horse picks 2024: 5 sleepers who could win at Pinehurst

It's hard to peruse the 2024 US Open odds and not gravitate immediately toward the favorites. Scottie Scheffler is in the midst of a historic run. Xander Schauffele just got the major championship monkey off of his back. Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are multi-time major winners in great form. And there are certainly more but it feels like Pinehurst No. 2 is narratively all about the favorites.

However, when you step back a bit, things are a bit more intriguing. The US Open is a 156-player field which would seemingly open the doors for sleepers and dark horses to emerge. And to some degree, we've historically seen some longshots win at Pinehurst, or at least in two of the three times this tournament has been held at this venue.

Back in 2014, Martin Kaymer -- who blew the field away with an eight-stroke victory -- closed at 40/1 odds. But in April, he could be found to win the US Open at 100/1 odds before getting hot. Then, back in 2005, Michael Campbell didn't even have his individual odds listed as he was merely part of "The Field". And going away from Pinehurst, we just saw Wyndham Clark win last year's major at LACC at 100/1 odds.

All this is to say, you can never count out the sleepers at the US Open. But which 2024 US Open dark horses stand out above the rest? These five players are certainly not favorites but they have the goods and the games to make a run at Pinehurst No. 2 this week. And even if they don't win, a look at something like a Top 20 or Top 40 play could be in order -- and in the case of one longshot, if you could find even make the cut odds, that could be worth your time.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All longshot bets are for 0.1 Units.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Memorial: 16-129-0, -40.53 Units (1-53 on outrights and longshots | -1.6 units at Memorial)

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5. Russell Henley has the complete game to win the 2024 US Open

Odds: +9000, FanDuel

Russell Henley is a guy I'm absolutely all in on this week at the 2024 US Open. I have another wager on him to win without Scottie Scheffler at +6600 but with his 90/1 odds, I have to include him as one of the dark horse picks for Pinehurst as well.

For one, Henley has proven that he can compete well at a difficult USGA setup that we know we'll see this week. In the past three years, he's registered two Top 15 finishes. Yes, they bookend a missed cut but that's going to happen at a US Open from time to time. More importantly, though, his form coming into this year's event lends itself to him finding success once again at a major.

Over his last 16 rounds, Henley is 14th in SG: Approach, 19th in SG: Around-the-Green, Top 25 in Bogey Avoidance, gaining strokes on Bermuda Greens and remains one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA Tour. The 2024 US Open with what Pinehurst demands figures to be a complete examination of players throughout the bag. Right now, few players have the balance that Henley does, so I'd be remiss to not have him listed here.

4. No one is talking about Tyrrell Hatton winning the US Open, but should

Odds: +6600

Much like with any LIV Golf star, it's hard to know truly what to make of these players' games right now. And Tyrrell Hatton might be the best example of that. The two times we've seen him on a non-LIV stage were obviously The Masters and the PGA Championship but those results were wildly different, finishing Top 10 at the former and outside the Top 60 at the latter. Throw in that the LIV Golf strokes gained data showed a rough ball-striking week from him last week at Houston and it gets more confusing.

But in totality, when I see Hatton and think of the best version of the Englishman, I think about someone who fits the same bill as Henley and the other sleepers we're going to discuss. He has the complete game throughout the bag, one of the more underrated around-the-green players in the world and a guy who can get white-hot on approach.

Do I worry about Hatton exploding mentally if Pinehurst plays as difficult as expected? Absolutely. It's 100% in the cards that he ejects himself by just getting far too frustrated. But you have to trust the game and Hatton's game at its best fits what you want to contend at this tournament.

3. Frankie Capan III is the ultimate longshot to win the 2024 US Open

Odds: +100000, FanDuel

Yes, those are 1,000/1 odds for Frankie Capan III and no, I'm not kidding about the 24-year-old being a legitimate sleeper I have my eye on at the 2024 US Open.

Capan currently plays on the Korn Ferry Tour and has been reeling off some impressive pop weeks, even if he doesn't have a ton of consistency. In his last six starts, he has four Top 10 finishes along with two Top 5 finishes, though the other two starts were a missed cut and a T56. But he's also a player who shot a round of 58 on the KFT earlier this season as well, showing how well he can score.

The youngster who appears in line to be on the PGA Tour next season as a rookie with the way he's playing and he has a long-hitting, well-rounded game that could serve him well at Pinehurst. Furthermore, he has familiarity at this venue, winning the US Amateur Four-Ball Championship here in 2017. It's obviously an extreme longshot but a young player with this much talent -- even if he did miss the cut last year in Los Angeles -- has my attention with these long of odds.

2. Dark horse Mac Meissner has a lot to like at Pinehurst

Odds: +60000, FanDuel

Full disclosure, Mac Meissner is becoming somewhat of a sneaky favorite of mine as the PGA Tour rookie has started to really show some high-end game as he's getting his feet under him in his first season with this schedule. Yes, his last start resulted in a T57 at the RBC Canadian Open but prior to that he finished T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and T13 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He also had another Top 10 at the Valero Texas Open.

The rookie's performance, specifically on approach, has been a bit hot and cold at times but he's shown an undeniable ability to pop on approach, gaining 5.99 strokes at Myrtle Beach and more than 3.0 strokes at the Charles Schwab. When you then factor in the rest of his game, though, it starts to make him more enticing as he's Top 30 in the US Open field in SG: Around-the-Green over the last 16 rounds while also sitting at 15th in Bogey Avoidance and Top 20 in putting on Bermuda greens over that span.

Meissner seems like he's primed for a breakout moment and perhaps the big stage of Pinehurst No. 2 -- especially given his success in the Carolinas already this season -- is the right spot for that to happen for the SMU product.

1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout is an enticing sleeper at the US Open

Odds: +12000, FanDuel

Coming off of a solo fourth-place finish last week at the Memorial, it's hard to not like what we've seen from Christiaan Bezuidenhout this season and particularly of late. Sure, he missed the cut at the PGA Championship but he also finished Top 20 at both the Charles Schwab Challenge and the Wells Fargo Championship as well.

While there have been some inconsistencies of late with the South African's approach play lately, that's been an undeniable strength overall for him this season. One of the big reasons for his recent pop in form, though, has been his short game. Over the last 16 rounds, he's fifth in SG: Around-the-Green and 13th in putting on Bermuda while ranking Top 20 in putting on fast greens as well.

This looks like a pretty damn complete profile for Bezuidenhout with the right boxes being checked for how he's found success and how it matches with Pinehurst. I love him this week and the value is there with him listed with 120/1 outright odds.