When the Chicago Cubs officially whiffed on Alex Bregman, the expectation was that Matt Shaw was going to be the team's Opening Day third baseman. No, he doesn't come with Bregman's star pedigree, but he is considered one of the best prospects in the sport for a reason — he has star potential and could be a key piece in Chicago for years to come.
Unfortunately, Shaw suffered an oblique injury before spring training games even got underway. The injury doesn't appear to be too serious, but given the fact that Shaw has yet to appear in Cactus League games and the Cubs play in the Tokyo Series in just 20 days, the odds of him joining the team when they head to Japan feel extremely slim at this point.
If Shaw is unable to make his MLB debut in Tokyo, this is what Chicago's lineup when they begin their season against the Los Angeles Dodgers might look like.
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Cubs Opening Day lineup without Matt Shaw highlights major roster flaw
Batting Order | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
1 | Ian Happ | LF |
2 | Kyle Tucker | RF |
3 | Seiya Suzuki | DH |
4 | Michael Busch | 1B |
5 | Dansby Swanson | SS |
6 | Nico Hoerner | 2B |
7 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF |
8 | Miguel Amaya | C |
9 | Jon Berti | 3B |
The top of this Cubs lineup is unchanged with Shaw's absence, and should be very formidable. Ian Happ gets on base a ton, Kyle Tucker is an MVP-caliber player, and Seiya Suzuki is as underrated of a big bopper as there is in the National League.
The middle of this Cubs lineup features three intriguing wild cards. Michael Busch got off to an outstanding start to his first full season as a starter, but he had just a .705 OPS in the second half, over 100 points lower than his .823 first-half OPS. Dansby Swanson received down-ballot MVP votes in 2022 and 2023, but had a .701 OPS in 2024 — his lowest mark since 2018. Nico Hoerner is another outstanding player coming off a down year. All three disappointed to an extent in 2024, but can all prove to be major contributors in 2025.
The lower third of this lineup is where the problems lie. Pete Crow-Armstrong is an elite defender and has tremendous speed, but his bat, while he finished strong in 2024, is still very unproven. Miguel Amaya, while he finished strong as well, had just a .644 OPS in 2024. Shaw's likely replacement, Jon Berti, appeared in just 25 games for the New York Yankees last season and has a 92 OPS+ in parts of seven MLB seasons — well below the league average of 100. That lower third of the order leaves a lot to be desired.
Berti isn't a bad player by any means. He's an elite base stealer, and his versatility should come in handy for Chicago. But again, his bat is below-average at best. Shaw might be unproven, but his bat at least has star upside. His absence would make the Cubs really feel the Bregman whiff.
The Cubs could replace Berti with Justin Turner, but given his age (40 years old) and his lack of recent appearances at third base (13 appearances in the last two seasons) that wouldn't make much sense.
At the end of the day, even if the Cubs weren't going to sign Bregman, they should've had a better backup plan in place in case Shaw either struggled or was injured. Their failure to do so will be felt if Shaw cannot play on Opening Day.