Projected Mets rotation as New York embarks on Clay Holmes experiment

While every fan of the New York Mets is busy reading the tea leaves about where Juan Soto will sign, president David Stearns knows that he can't afford to wait for Soto's decision to jumpstart the team's offseason. Even if Soto comes to Queens, it won't make much difference if New York can't rebuild a rotation that lost Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana to free agency.

Of course, allocating some $700 million (or even more) for Soto does mean that Stearns has put at least some limitations on who he can target. An ace like Corbin Burnes would be nice, but doesn't seem to be in the cards for the time being. Instead, Stearns is getting creative. First came a two-year deal for righty Frankie Montas, an attempt to recapture the same magic that helped revitalize Severino's career in 2024. But the Mets' next signing was an even bigger show of faith in the team's player development: New York has reportedly sign former Yankees closer Clay Holmes to a three-year, $38 million deal — not to help the team's bullpen, but to help its rotation.

That's now two additions to the Mets 2025 pitching staff, both of whom figure to go a long way to determining whether New York dethrones the Dodgers atop the National League — no matter where Soto signs. But does the team need to keep adding, or can it cross starter off its offseason to-do list? Let's take a look at where things currently stand.

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How Mets rotation stacks up after Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas signings

Here's how the Mets rotation looks after the additions of both Holmes and Montas.

Both signings make sense in a vacuum; the Mets under Stearns have shown that they know what they're looking for in a reclamation project, and both Montas and Holmes have reasons to believe that they can succeed in the roles New York will be putting them in next season. But one look at the table above makes clear that, even if the Mets hit on both players, they need to add at least one more arm at some point this winter.

That doesn't have to mean a run at Burnes or Max Fried, or a trade for Garrett Crochet. But there are simply too many question marks as things currently stand: Peterson was a revelation last season, and Montas and Holmes are worthy bets to make, but none of them can confidently project to a full season's worth of above-average innings, and that's not even touching on the fact that Senga will be returning from an injury-plagued season. Even if 2024 is Peterson's new normal, and even if Montas and Holmes become solid options in the back of the rotation, it's hard to figure out how New York is going to get a full season's worth of innings from this group.

The good news for the Mets is that they should be positioned to do just that regardless of how the Soto sweepstakes shake out. Miss on the star outfielder, and suddenly there's a giant pile of cash to throw at Burnes or Fried, both of whom seem comfortable waiting until Soto is off the board to make their decisions. And if Soto comes, there are plenty of mid-tier options remaining, from a reunion with Manaea to names like Nathan Eovaldi, Kyle Gibson and Andrew Heaney.