The Open Championship cut line isn't as daunting as it is in some of the other major championships as the Top 70 and ties make it into the weekend after 36 holes. That's the good news coming into the tournament. But once the players got out to play Royal Portrush for the British Open this week, the number of players didn't matter anymore. It became about making the cut line number in tough conditions on a demanding tract in order to see the weekend at The Open.
Someone like Bryson DeChambeau was certainly feeling that pressure early on. In his first round, nothing was going right for him, which made sense considering his less than stellar history at The Open throughout his career. However, after shooting 7-over in the first round, he definitely appeared in danger of missing the cut. But to his credit, he showed up a new man on Friday to fight back to the right side of the British Open cut line.
Other players, however, aren't so lucky — whether they're still on the course fighting to see the weekend or are in the locker room sweating it out. So let's dive into both what The Open Championship cut line could be, and which big-name players might be in trouble of not getting to that score after 36 holes.
Projected 2025 Open Championship cut line
The cut at The Open Championship is almost surely going to end up at +2. Datagolf's models have a 92.4% probability that the cut line ends up at 2-over par through 36 holes with the second round getting closer to its conclusion. There is still a 4.6% chance that it could be at +1 and a 3.0% chance of it moving back further to +3. But barring something truly unforeseen — which isn't out of the question since this is The Open, the cut will be at 2-over par.
Notable players in danger of missing the cut
Collin Morikawa, one of the favorites entering The Open, entered the second in real danger of missing the cut. He shot 4-over on Thursday and then got off to a slow start with an early-round bogey, putting him three shots behind that +2 mark he needs to get to. He got a birdie to help the cause soon after, but needed a lot of work to make it under the cut line. That's also true for Patrick Cantlay, who began Friday at +2 but was having a rough go of it. There were a few birdies sprinkled in, but some untimely bogeys had him on the wrong side of the cut line at +3 through 12 holes.
On the right side of the cut line but only barely, players like Jason Day and Dustin Johnson were battling at the end of their rounds to try and see the weekend. Johnson started his second round at +2 and was putting in hard, sweaty work to try and stay there with a gritty even-par round going through 15 holes. Day had a similar plight, but he faced the real pressure as he went to the 18th hole still at +2 for the tournament, needing to make par to see the weekend.
Other players fighting a cut sweat on Friday including Wyndham Clark (+3 through 6), Hideki Matsuyama (+2 through 10), and Ben Griffin (+4 through 9), among others.
Naturally, though, we have to talk about some of the players who's battle might be too uphill to make the cut. Patrick Reed was a popular pick coming into the week, but after an opening round 77, he needed to make a move. Instead, he went in the wrong direction, shooting 2-over early to sit at +8 through six holes for the tournament. Cameron Smith also ruined his tournament with a 7-over round on Friday after starting at +1, a similar story to Adam Scott, who started at +1 and finished 36 holes at +9. Lastly, Brooks Koepka is somewhere in-between, sitting at +5 but not playing great and at +1 for the second round.