The Houston Rockets are back in the NBA Playoffs, and the energy in the city is palpable. Under Ime Udoka, the Rockets have broken through the rebuilding stage and have grown faster than most expected. With a young roster and new leadership, fans believe this team can make a run in the postseason. But the first round is where the run starts — and potentially tough matchups mean there are no guarantees. The wrong foe could be the difference between a deep run and going home early.
This year’s Western Conference play-in tournament sets up several possible first-round opponents for Houston and we’ll break down who the Rockets would most like to play and who they should hope to avoid early on. Houston enters the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the west, waiting for the seventh seed to emerge from the play-in.
Most favorable matchup: Dallas Mavericks
Most teams, including the Rockets, would gladly take their chances with Dallas. The Mavericks have slipped to the No. 10 seed and have dealt with injuries and inconsistent play all season. Oh, and they also traded away Luka Dončić earlier this season. Houston dominated the head-to-head series, 3-1, dominating on the boards in each game. The Rockets’ athletic wings matched up well with the Mavs perimeter players and Dallas struggled to counter Houston’s physicality.
Dallas’ lack of depth was evident even before Dončić was traded. Their defense ranked near the bottom among West playoff teams, and they couldn’t stop Houston’s transition offense. The Mavs simply don’t have any answers with Kyrie Irving out and Anthony Davis back leading the way. Despite this, the Rockets would likely make quick work of Dallas in four or five games. This one is more of a wish since Dallas is the No. 10 seed and would end up playing the No. 1 seed, OKC Thunder if they advance.
Second-best potential draw: Sacramento Kings
Sacramento is a fast-paced team, but Houston did not handle it well this season, losing all three meetings with the Kings. With De’Aaron Fox out of the picture, Domantas Sabonis will shoulder the load for the Kings, meaning the battles inside should be intense. Sabonis led the NBA in rebounding averaging 13.9 per game. With a change in dynamics, the Rockets would stand a much better chance with the Kings this time.
Coach Udoka’s squad should have the edge overall in rebounding although Sabonis will give them a run for their money. Sacramento’s defense isn’t much to write home about and their half-court offense struggles under pressure. If Houston can keep the Kings out of transition, they should be able to control the pace.
The Memphis Grizzlies could be tricky
Memphis presents a more complex challenge. The Grizzlies have been through the wringer a bit but are finally healthy, with Ja Morant getting back to form. Houston took the season series 3-1 and would look forward to getting a few more games with the Grizzles.
Physicality and defensive grit are what the Grizzlies bring to the table. They rank in the top 10 defensive efficiency in the NBA, and their half-court defense could give the Rockets young team fits at times. Morant’s explosiveness and Desmond Bane’s shooting can stretch the Rockets’ defense. The Grizzlies have playoff experience to lean on which should help to raise their confidence.
Avoid Golden State at all costs
Golden State is the nightmare matchup for Houston. The Warriors’ playoff pedigree is unmatched with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green having been here many times. Now the Warriors have Jimmy Butler on the roster as well and he brings his own level of postseason experience and heroics. Houston went 2-3 against Golden State this season, but Houston did take the most recent matchup late in the season.
In their last game a couple of weeks ago, Amen Thompson held Stephen Curry to his worst shooting day of the season. Curry was 1 of 10 from the field with Thompson draped all over him all game. In the other matchups, Golden State exploited Houston’s inexperience, running them off screens and forcing turnovers. The Warriors’ playoff know-how, combined with their ability to lock in defensively, makes them the most dangerous play-in team. Houston’s young core has not yet faced this level of postseason pressure.
Matchups and experience matter
Head-to-head records tell a good portion of the story, but not all of it. Dallas and Sacramento allow more points per game than Houston, while Memphis and Golden State keep scores lower. Houston led the league in rebounding, giving them more second-chance points than most teams. In clutch situations, the Rockets rely on players like Fred VanVleet, Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green, but only VanVleet has significant playoff mileage.
Golden State’s playoff experience is an obvious threat as Curry is still an elite player in this league. The Grizzlies bring a chip on their shoulder, eager to prove they’re more than a play-in team. The Kings lack recent playoff success, while the Mavs sent most of theirs packing with Luka. Anthony Davis is a champion, although he’s never been mistaken for a leader.