The Boston Red Sox sit four games below .500 and nine games behind first-place New York in the AL East. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more disappointing team in MLB right now. Craig Breslow made all the right moves on paper last winter. This was supposed to be a breakthrough season for the Red Sox. Instead, we are approaching fire sale territory.
If Boston decides to hit the reset button and regroup for 2026, the most popular name in trade rumors in Jarren Duran. The 28-year-old was considered damn near untouchable as recently as last season, but with his numbers on the decline and a few concerning metrics, now might be the time for Boston to move on.
Duran is reaching the end of his contract. He has an $8 million club option for 2026, which is still tremendous value in a vacuum, but the Red Sox can get the most for Duran when he's not a straight rental. That, combined with a noticeable regression analytically, puts the talented left fielder as close to the trade block as anyone on this Red Sox roster.
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Red Sox need to consider trading Jarren Duran before his production plummets too far
This feels like an inflection point for Duran and the Red Sox. While he is undeniably a good outfielder, the trends are worrisome. He has experienced a sharp decline in expected slugging (.424) and expected xwOBA, or weighted On-Base Average (.300). His barrel rate is down (8.5 percent, compared to 9.4 percent last season).
Duran's simply is not making good contact at the same rate he was a year ago. His OPS (.747) is the lowest it's been since 2022, when Duran was not a full-timer in Boston yet. More than a decline in production, the metrics that measure quality of contact, independent of results, are also on a downward spiral. His swing is rapidly losing potency.
There is no reason to believe Duran has hit a wall at 28 years old, but he's performing like an adequate starter, rather than the superstar Boston fans hoped he might become. Factor in the ongoing need to create space for No. 1 overall prospect Roman Anthony in the outfield, and there's ample reason for the Red Sox to bite the bullet and trade him right now, before his numbers reach a more dire territory that scares off prospective buyers.
It won't be hard to find interested suitors for Duran. Even amid these negative trends, there will be teams confident in his ability to flip the script and get back to something approximating 2024's All-Star heights. He has six hits over his last three games, so the bat is catching a bit of fire at an opportune moment.
But, for a Red Sox team trending away from contention, that makes it prudent to extract maximum value while they still can — while the illusion of long-term optimism persists. The plan should be to trade Duran for a prospect haul, plug Anthony into the lineup, and see where the youth takes them. The Red Sox need to embrace the future, and it's feeling increasingly like Duran is not part of that future.