The Toronto Blue Jays had a chance to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of his final season under club control but elected not to, all but confirming that the 25-year-old superstar will be a free agent after the year.
At first glance, the Blue Jays passing on a Guerrero extension felt like an unforgivable mistake made by Ross Atkins. Guerrero is an MVP-caliber player, is just 25 years old, and has repeatedly said that he'd like to be in Toronto long-term. You don't just let a player like that go.
Guerrero wound up revealing what his asking price was to ESPN's Enrique Rojas and Ernesto Jerez, and while it was considerably less than the 15-year, $765 million that Juan Soto got, it's still a substantial amount.
"It's much less than Soto. We're talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. ... It was the same number of years [as Soto's contract], but it didn't reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn't reach 600," Guerrero said.
Guerrero, while not revealing an exact dollar figure, made it clear that his final counter did not reach $600 million, but it certainly sounds as if it was close to that number, or at least above $500 million across the 15 years that Soto got. That is a substantial amount of money and term for a first baseman who, while possessing an MVP ceiling, had two very underwhelming years ahead of his 2024 monster year.
To put it simply, Atkins is justified in feeling as if the risk of meeting Guerrero's hefty demands wasn't worthwhile for the Blue Jays. With that being said, though, Atkins has still handled this situation incredibly poorly.
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Ross Atkins was right to pass on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension, but needs to trade him
Passing on that asking price is fine, but it almost certainly means Guerrero is about to enter his final season in Toronto. The Jays were unwilling to overpay to keep him around, but there's a really good chance that Guerrero will get as much, if not more, than what he asked for, assuming he has another MVP-caliber year in 2025. Nobody had Soto getting close to the $765 million he wound up getting, but free agency bidding wars drove up his price. There could easily be one for Guerrero, who will be just 26 years old when he enters the open market.
The only way Guerrero's asking price will go down is if he has a down year. If he has a down year, why would the Jays then want to extend him?
If the Jays were unwilling to extend him now, it's almost certain that they will be unwilling to meet his offseason demands, no matter how he does in 2025. If he plays well, he'll be out of their price range. If he doesn't, he wouldn't be worth giving a large amount of money to. While that is also fine, the one thing that the Jays cannot do is lose a superstar for nothing, which is where this feels headed.
If the Jays won't pay him, they must trade him. Guerrero can bring the Jays an absolute haul in a trade, giving them a better chance to compete in the future without him. As of now, the Jays have one of the worst farm systems in the sport. That can change in an eye blink with a Guerrero trade.
Even with Guerrero, it's hard to see any path in which this team can seriously compete for a World Series title. They're probably good enough to hang around in what should be a weak AL Wild Card race, and anything can happen in the playoffs, but they're not a team that, on paper, has any sort of shot of winning it all.
Given that, wouldn't it be smarter to capitalize on Guerrero if you know he won't be back after the 2025 campaign, rather than keep him around, fall short of a World Series title, and then lose him in free agency for nothing? Again, losing him for nothing is the one thing that cannot happen.
Overpaying Guerrero wouldn't be great, but at least he'd be locked in for the remainder of his career. Trading him would ensure that the Jays don't have a contract they regret handing out on their hands, and ensures they get a strong return for Guerrero. That feels like the ideal scenario. Hopefully, that's something that Atkins realizes sooner rather than later.