Blue Jays can't afford to let Ross Atkins lead them into a Shohei Ohtani-sized mistake

The Toronto Blue Jays are in a brutal spot. On Tuesday, it word broke that the team failed to come to terms on an extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the organization's face of the franchise and best player. Barring something unforeseen, Guerrero Jr. will hit free agency after this season, setting the stage for his potential departure from the only organization he's ever known.

Guerrero Jr. failing to reach an extension does not yet guarantee that he won't be a Blue Jay past the 2025 campaign. Chances are, if the Jays meet his asking price at any point prior to the offseason, he'll sign an extension. The Jays are also able to outbid the field when Guerrero does reach free agency. The chances of either of these things happening, though, are certainly slim.

The increased likelihood of Guerrero Jr. leaving next winter has Blue Jays fans beyond frustrated, and it's hard to blame them.

What makes this situation worse is that, even after failing to extend Guerrero Jr., the Jays have made it abundantly clear that they're not at all interested in trading him to ensure they acquire something for him rather than lose him for nothing. That approach is awfully reminiscent to the one that the Los Angeles Angels took in 2023 with Shohei Ohtani. We know how that one played out.

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Ross Atkins is putting the Blue Jays at risk of repeating past Angels Shohei Ohtani mistake

Ohtani, the best player in the sport, was playing out his final year of club control with the Angels during the 2023 season. L.A. understandably did not want to trade him, knowing that they'd struggle to compete without him and knowing just how much money he made the franchise. With that being said, though, that decision proved to be extremely costly.

The Halos entered that 2023 season with a solid roster on paper, but not one that anyone thought was capable of winning the World Series. Despite that, the team kept him around without an extension, and even doubled down by buying rather than selling at the trade deadline. Of course, the team immediately collapsed after the deadline, missed the playoffs, and lost Ohtani in free agency to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

How is this situation much different than what the Jays are about to enter with Guerrero Jr.? The Jays are a solid team on paper, but not one anyone would realistically pick to win the AL East, let alone the World Series. Yet, the Jays are planning on keeping him around, hoping they win, and hoping that somehow convinces him to stay.

Forget the fact that this team isn't good enough to win it all right now. Why do the Jays think they'll be able to sign him in free agency when they were unable to do so without a single team competing against them? Chances are, several big-market teams are licking their chops knowing they can bid substantial amounts of money on a superstar still just entering his prime at 26.

The Jays being unwilling to meet what was likely an insane asking price from Guerrero Jr. is understandable, but they should then pivot to trading him. Losing him for nothing more than a draft pick when they can instead overhaul what is currently a brutal farm system would be a catastrophic mistake.