Selfish Ross Atkins will let Jays go down with the ship no matter what happens with Vlad Guerrero Jr.

The Toronto Blue Jays have done a nice job rebounding from their early high-profile free agency misses, adding players like Anthony Santander, Andres Gimenez, Jeff Hoffman, Max Scherzer and Yimi Garcia. But while they're better on paper than they were in the 2024 season, the Jays have yet to accomplish priority No. 1 on their offseason checklist: extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero Jr., the face of the franchise, is entering his final year of club control. As of now, he's slated to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign. While the Jays could absolutely re-sign him in free agency, they'd obviously prefer to get a deal done before he gets a chance to negotiate with the other 29 teams.

Vladdy has expressed a willingness to sign an extension with Toronto, but at his price, and as long as a deal is completed before Toronto's first full day of Spring Training. He's unwilling to discuss an extension during the season, making this upcoming week a crucial one for Toronto. If they want to get a deal done before next winter, it's going to have to come within the next week.

If the Jays were to fail to get Guerrero Jr. to agree on an extension prior to his self-imposed deadline, there was reason to believe that they'd consider trading him. He'd immediately shoot to the top of next year's free-agent class, and deep-pocketed teams like the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and others would make it unlikely that a return to the Jays was in the cards. But a preemptive trade, according to ESPN's ($) Jeff Passan, is off the table for now.

"Oh, and for those who think perhaps Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would become available if he can't come to terms on a contract extension before his Feb. 18 deadline: The Blue Jays continue to insist to other executives that the slugger isn't going anywhere," Passan wrote. "There is a price for everyone, yes, but Guerrero's would be exceptionally high."

Yeah, Guerrero is not going anywhere anytime soon, and Ross Atkins is to blame for that.

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Ross Atkins is willing to risk Blue Jays future rather than do what's best for the franchise

Why the Jays are planning on holding onto Guerrero regardless of whether he's extended or not is quite simple: He gives them a better chance of winning in 2025. Guerrero is an MVP-caliber player, and without him, the Jays would struggle to compete in the AL East.

Based on the fact that Atkins' Jays haven't won a postseason game, let alone series, since his first year on the job back in 2016, his seat is piping hot. Another down year for Toronto could, and probably will, cost Atkins his job, so Guerrero Jr. can't go anywhere with that in mind.

While it isn't hard to see why Atkins would want to keep Guerrero even without an extension, Jays fans have reason to believe that isn't the best course of action for the franchise.

Toronto won 74 games in 2024. While they're undoubtedly better now than they were then, are they true World Series contenders? Are they anything more than fringe playoff contenders? If they are able to sign Alex Bregman, the Jays might be realistically able to trick themselves into thinking this team has potential, but barring that, this team is not close to a true contender on paper.

Chances are, Guerrero Jr.'s price tag will only increase once all 30 teams are able to negotiate with him, much like we saw with Juan Soto. The Jays can still re-sign him, but are they really going to outbid the field, especially if they're unwilling to meet his current asking price without any competition?

Toronto holding onto its star instead of ensuring that they get a massive return in a trade before potentially losing him for nothing more than a draft pick certainly feels like Atkins holding out hope that the Jays make an unlikely deep playoff run, ensuring that he gets to stick around for a while longer.

Simply put, the risk/reward does not favor holding onto Guerrero. Keeping him and risking losing him for nothing on a team that is not a true World Series contender after refusing to extend him instead of trading him for a haul would be malpractice, and benefit nobody other than Atkins.