A new dawn has arrived for the New Orleans Saints. After two seasons in NOLA, Derek Carr announced his retirement on Saturday. The 34-year-old, faced with a potentially catastrophic rotator cuff injury in his throwing shoulder, will hang up his cleats with four Pro Bowls to his name.
In lieu of Carr, the Saints will turn to an inexperienced QB room of Jake Haener, Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough. Head coach Kellen Moore has said all three will get a chance to win the job in training camp, although Shough feels like the logical favorite as New Orleans attempts to figure out the path forward.
That said, many Saints fans will look to the 2026 NFL Draft as a potential long-term solution, as faith in Shough is sparse right now. Arch Manning sits atop a lot of draft boards for next season, and he's a New Orleans native, so it's only natural to connect the dots. Just don't get your hopes up yet.
Saints cannot put all their eggs in the Arch Manning basket just yet
Manning will assume the starting mantle for the Texas Longhorns this season. This moment arrives after two years as the understudy to Quinn Ewers, the new backup quarterback of the Miami Dolphins.
We have only seen sporadic appearances from Manning to date. He logged two starts for the Longhorns last season when Ewers went down with an injury, including an impressive 325-yard, two-touchdown performance against Mississippi State. Otherwise, he was mostly used as a change-of-pace option when the offense stalled.
There's a good chance Manning only needs one full season to climb NFL Draft boards, but that does not necessarily mean he is a lock to go pro next summer. In fact, it could benefit him — and his future NFL team — if Manning takes the full four years in Austin. That would allow him to establish a strong baseline of production and feel, perhaps giving him the necessary experience to expedite his eventual NFL acclimation.
"Drafting quarterbacks is not an exact science, but there are three things I hold true when evaluating them," writes FanSided's John Buhler. "If a player gets hurt in college, he will get hurt in the NFL. At the end of the day, you cannot train an inaccurate passer in the college game to be more precise professionally. And while it is not a guarantee of success at the next level, those without 24 college career starts are destined to fail."
Manning has plenty of intriguing flashes under his belt, but we have yet to see sustained positive impact and production from the 21-year-old. The simple fact of the matter is, Texas was better with Ewers under center in 2024. There were plenty of calls for Manning to take the job, but he never did enough with his brief opportunities to meaningfully close the gap with a battle-tested upperclassman.
Perhaps this season marks Manning's leap into the upper stratosphere, but historical precedent says he should remain in school another year and put two starting seasons under his belt before endeavoring at a professional career. Everybody needs the proper time and space to develop, even when their last name is Manning.
As such, the Saints cannot count on Manning to be readily available at the top of the 2026 NFL Draft — and that's assuming New Orleans is even bad enough to secure the No. 1 pick, which is far from a guarantee.
Instead, Saints fans should probably start scouting veteran free agents and mentally preparing for the Tyler Shough era. There's no way the Saints invest a second-round pick in Shough without confidence that he can lead the offense on a weekly basis. The odds of Shough lining up under center for the next five-plus years in New Orleans are far greater than the odds of a Manning homecoming. That is the hard, cold truth.