3 bold predictions for Steelers vs. Bengals in Week 13: An AFC North shootout

According to 506 Sports’ television coverage map for Week 13, a majority of the country will be watching the Steelers take on the Bengals during Sunday’s early window slate beginning at 1 p.m. EST. How the Steelers perform will reverberate across the country.

The offense has hit a rough patch last week against the Browns while the pass rush is under fire, T.J. Watt is ice cold, Mike Tomlin damaged his Coach of the Year candidacy, and Minkah Fitzpatrick’s turnover streak is beginning to concern counting stat nerds.

Additionally, the Bengals need this more than the Steelers do. If the Steelers don’t come out with a sense of urgency and allow another divisional opponent to pick their pockets, they face a downhill slide that threatens all of their progress.

Steelers will have to win a shootout

Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase is inevitable. Burrow and Chase are the most inseparable quarterback-receiver connection this side of Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. Through 12 weeks, Chase leads the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns. Joey Porter Jr. has the NFL’s toughest matchup this weekend. Despite the Steelers' defense giving most opponents on their schedule fits so far, the over/under for Sunday is set at 47.5. Bet the over.

In four career games against the Steelers, Ja'Marr Chase racked up 314 yards and three touchdowns across 21 receptions. The Steelers' defense is an immovable object, but Ja’Marr Chase is an unstoppable force. Burrow might get into hot water forcing it, but Chase is bound to win enough of those mid-air jump balls to create explosive plays when the Bengals need them most.

Russell Wilson throws for a season-high in his first 300-yard game

Pittsburgh has been waiting for Wilson to string together a complete game for four quarters. Wilson has been explosive in spurts, but mostly he’s boom-or-bust without committing turnovers. This is his chance to let Mr. Unlimited out of his restraints. Wilson has yet to register a 300-yard game. Aside from star defensive end Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals’ defense is in tatters this season. 

Wilson’s breakout was supposed to come against the Ravens 32nd-ranked pass defense two weeks ago. Instead, he performed so poorly in the red zone that Arthur Smith began scheming ways to shoehorn Justin Fields into the offense. However, that entire game was a grind for both offenses. Burrow has produced scoring drives more efficiently than Lamar Jackson has in their respective careers against Pittsburgh. 18 points won’t cut it. Wilson supplanted Fields because he was the type of quarterback who could lead Pittsburgh to a win in a barnburner.

Wilson has demonstrated the ability to rise to the occasion in the second half when he’s not throwing into driving snowstorms. Wilson needs to start hot and stay that way. However, it’s also incumbent upon the Steelers coaches to call a game that allows him to unload on a Bengals defense that is ripe for the picking.

T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig tee off on Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow’s career against the Steelers has been a mixed bag. In five career games, they’ve rained hellfire upon Burrow, sacking him 15 times and relentlessly pressuring him. T.J. Watt doesn’t exist in a vacuum. He’s aware of his slump after Myles Garrett recorded three sacks in a game where Watt was almost invisible. Watt will face an extremely favorable opponent in the Bengals and enters extra motivated after 10 days of seeing, hearing, and being asked to discuss his slump. 

Watt’s 8.9 percent pressure rate is the lowest of his career. The blame for Watt’s struggles has been placed at his feet, but defensive coordinator Teryl Austin is responsible for scheming blitzes, stunts, and pressures to kindle the Steelers tepid pass rush. According to Next Gen Stats, the Steelers rank eighth in pressure rate but are 22nd in sack rate. They have the tools. It’s incumbent upon Tomlin and Austin to dig through the muck for solutions to the defense’s complex problems. 

In 2022, Alex Highsmith dumped Burrow three times. However, with Highsmith sidelined for Week 13, Nick Herbig is the Steelers' premier pass rusher from the right side. Herbig's 21.6 percent pressure rate leads the entire team. In Week 11, the Chargers sacked Burrow three times and left their fingerprints all over the scene of the crime by logging 14 quarterback hits. Burrow will go down firing, but the pass rush should leave a few Burrow-shaped imprints in the turf.