Steelers news: Courtland Sutton trade rumors, TJ Watt highway robbery and more

Pittsburgh’s bye week is the calm before the storm. The second half of the NFL schedule is shaping out to be a frantic race to the finish for the AFC North crown against the Ravens. Russell Wilson will be instrumental, maybe even more so than TJ Watt. The Steelers may not be what Mike Tomlin describes as a quarterback-centric team, but modern-day football revolves around the position. 

Despite the diminishing importance of a strong rushing attack, having one makes it easier for Wilson. This is why watching embattled starter Najee Harris ignite their impotent ground game has been so refreshing. In doing so, Harris has separated himself from Jaylen Warren as the clear-cut No. 1 after they went 50-50 on snaps in Week 7.

There’s not much news to report out of Pittsburgh lately, but no news is good news during a bye week. You can expect that to change around the trade deadline on Tuesday. In the meantime, there are new trade rumors abound, and the Defensive Player of the Year race behind Watt is heating up.

TJ Watt’s Defensive Player of the Year odds are growing

Midway through the NFL season, TJ Watt is still the frontrunner for the NFL’s 2024 Defensive Player of the Year award with +100 odds according to BET MGM. That’s up from his +300 odds two weeks ago after Watt emerged as the betting favorite in Week 4 following Aidan Hutchinson’s broken leg. On Wednesday, TJ Watt was named the AFC’s Defensive Player of the Week. In the past few weeks, Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr.’s performance has pushed him into +550 territory as the runner-up to Watt. 

Watt has won game after game for the Steelers with timely punchouts, made splash plays in the run game, collapsed pockets, and has short-circuited offenses with his mere presence. On Monday Nght Football, Watt recorded two sacks, seven tackles, a fumble, and a fumble recovery.

Watt wasn’t the AFC’s Defensive Player of the Month, however. That’s likely a product of going two weeks without a sack, which appears to be weighted more heavily than the four fumbles Watt has forced this month. The October honor was bestowed upon Will Anderson who recorded 18 tackles, seven tackles for loss, and a fumble recovery in the Texans’ first four October games. While Watt rests for the Steelers bye, Anderson will have an opportunity to bolster his standing in a primetime game against the Jets and Aaron Rodgers on Thursday night.  

Advanced stats prove TJ Watt was robbed of DPOY

The difference between Watt and Anderson is in the details though. Watt’s effectiveness is measured not only in terms of sacks and hurries but also in terms of the personnel used to restrict his disruptive nature. A year ago, Watt was second in the Defensive Player of the Year race. So much about award voting is about production, but narrative plays a major part in the vote as well. Much of that narrative is influenced by advanced analytics. 

Garrett coasted to being named Defensive Player of the Year by generating 14 sacks, and 12 tackles for loss, finishing ahead of TJ Watt, who generated 19 sacks and nine TFLs. The thinking was that Garrett was the anchor on the NFL’s best defense and that his production was a result of being doubled teamed on 29 percent of his pass rushes, over twice the rate Watt was double-teamed (14%). However, ESPN’s widely-circulated double team percentage stat had a flaw that Pro Football Focus has attempted to account for.

This season, opposing offenses have gone to considerable lengths to prevent Watt from battering their quarterbacks into oblivion. Pro Football Focus’ chip rate statistic charts the number of chips used to slow his blitzkrieg into the backfield, and predictably Watt remains the most targeted pass rusher in the league by a considerable margin. Based on PFF’s data, Watt eats chip blocks for breakfast, having been chipped nearly twice as often as Myles Garrett or any other pass rusher.

The chip rate against Watt has shrunk by 13 percent since Week 4, but still leads the league by over twice the rate against Myles Garrett. PFF’s recording chip rates against pass rushers feel like it was in response to the uproar over how Watt's perceived lack of double teams as a pass-rushing outside linebacker a year ago and they may already be having an impact on the race.

Steelers could finally have a WR trade brewing

Given how near we are to the upcoming trade deadline, the time for window shopping by the Steelers is ending soon. It may have seemed like the Steelers resigned themselves to acquiring receiver Mike Williams amid the worst season of his professional career. Many of their earlier trade targets are now comfortably situated in new cities or firmly entrenched in the franchises who considered trading them (Brandon Aiyuk and Cooper Kupp). However, former Sports Illustrated analyst and current Sportskeeda NFL insider Tony Pauline dropped fresh trade speculation into the Steelers trade deadline jambalaya on Thursday.

According to Pauline’s sources, New York Giants receiver Darius Slayton and Denver Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton, in addition to Mike Williams are among the receivers Omar Khan is inquiring into. Slayton’s name has been on the periphery of trade talk for a few weeks, but Pauline’s report is the first time he’s been mentioned as a serious possibility. 

Of course, Khan’s interest in Slayton is part of a pattern of receivers the Steelers are about to face or that they’ve recently faced being thrown into trade conversations. Davante Adams faced the Steelers twice in two weeks before and after he requested a trade from the Jets. On Sunday, Slayton produced his second 100-yard game of the season against the Steelers on Monday night and is playing out an expiring contract on a floundering Giants team after failing to negotiate a contract extension during the offseason. 

However, the NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports that the Giants would have to be blown away by an offer to trade Slayton, and the Steelers have shown an aversion to reaching for positions of need via trades. The Broncos are also saying the same about Courtland Sutton, and various reports indicate their asking price is a second-round pick. Sutton was Wilson’s No. 1 target in Denver, and has been pursued multiple times by Pittsburgh, but ultimately, Khan’s pursuit of Sutton and Slayton whittles down to who buckles first.