Stunning landing spot might give Pete Alonso best chance to recapture his value

It's safe to say that Pete Alonso's free agency has not gone the way he envisioned it. Alonso, understandably, expected to cash in after hitting the most home runs in the National League since debuting back in 2019. MLB teams, understandably, are reluctant to pay a ton of money to a 30-year-old first baseman who has several notable weaknesses and a strength that often does not age well.

Alonso and his agent, Scott Boras, have been engaged in a game of chicken with the New York Mets all offseason. Alonso seems to prefer to return to the team that drafted him and watched him develop into the four-time All-Star he is today, but on his terms. The Mets seem to be interested in re-signing Alonso, but on their terms.

While the Mets seem to be positioned nicely here given Alonso's lack of fallbacks, all it takes is one suitor to tilt the scales. Alonso might have found that suitor, with Jon Heyman of the NY Post reporting that the Cincinnati Reds may consider signing him thanks to Alonso's market being as depleted as it is.

Heyman noted that it probably isn't likely that Alonso will end up in The Queen City, but given his lack of alternatives, if they're interested, they've got a shot.

From Alonso's perspective, while the Reds don't have as good of a chance of winning in 2025 as the Mets do, and the Reds don't play in a major market like the Mets do, landing with that team gives him the potential to recapture his value.

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Reds might give Pete Alonso best chance to cash in next offseason

Chances are, Alonso is going to have to settle for a short-term deal with a high AAV and opt-outs like several other Boras clients have done in recent years. For some players, like Matt Chapman and Blake Snell, it has worked. For others, like Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger (to an extent), it has not. Alonso signing with Cincinnati could give him the best opportunity to have a great year and cash in next offseason as a free agent.

Alonso had a down year in 2024 but was still productive for the Mets, slashing .240/.329/.459 with 34 home runs and 88 RBI while playing in all 162 regular season games. Had he played those games at Cincinnati's hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, though, his numbers would've been eye-popping.

According to Baseball Savant, Alonso had 46 expected home runs at Great American Ballpark - tying him for the most of any stadium with Citizens Bank Park. Alonso has 265 expected home runs in his career at Great American Ballpark, the most he has at any ballpark, and well above the 226 he has hit overall.

Yes, Alonso would only play half the time in Cincinnati, but he can absolutely crush baseballs in those games. Plus, Alonso's success at Wrigley Field (1.134 OPS) and Busch Stadium (1.158 OPS) opens the door to him having a ton of success against fellow NL Central rivals on the road.

If Alonso's goal for this offseason is to earn as much money upfront as he can, opt out, and try again to earn a monster payday next offseason, it's hard to believe he'll find a better team to boost his value with than Cincinnati. The Reds might not have enough money that they're willing to spend to convince him to come to one of the smallest markets in MLB, but the fit, on paper, is seamless for a power hitter to go and launch home runs hitting behind Elly De La Cruz.