It's been a while since we've seen a sleeper come from way down the odds board and win The Masters. Since 2017, the longest odds that we've seen from a winner at The Masters was Patrick Reed in 2018 — but even he was only a consensus 50-1 pick for the week at Augusta National Golf Club. Furthermore, Trevor Immelman's 2008 win is the longest odds of any player to win The Masters at 150-1.
All this is to say, dark horse picks to win at Augusta haven't exactly been a profitable endeavor. I certainly agree with that, considering that two of my three outright picks this week are Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa, who are two of the Top 5 on the current odds board. At the same time, we all want to root for the sleeper who surprises everyone and puts on the Green Jacket. It's all about identifying the right sleepers.
In that light, I basically put blockers on from the top of the odds board and am now looking at five golfers who are rightly not favorites at The Masters in 2025 but still check enough boxes to make me believe they have the right stuff to be the sleeper who breaks the drought of a dark horse winner at Augusta. Maverick McNealy (150-1) isn't on here because we've already sprinkled an outright on him, but we have five other sleepers with a legitimate (or reasonable) chance at a Green Jacket, all of them at 80-1 odds or longer.
Golf betting record in 2025: 10-40-0, +26.385 Units (-4 Units at Valero)
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5. Laurie Canter (+25000)
By far the biggest longshot that we have coming in at 250-1, Laurie Canter feels like he's flying entirely too far under the radar. The reason why is obvious. Outside of qualifying for THE PLAYERS Championship but then missing the cut, he's largely been working to play his way back onto the PGA Tour after a brief stint with LIV Golf. That has taken him largely out of the spotlight.
While outside of the spotlight, though, he's been on an absolute heater. Over the last 24 rounds, Canter ranks second in The Masters field in SG: Tee-to-Green, ahead of the likes of Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. He also won at the Bahrain Championship and registered two other Top 3 finishes on the DP World Tour over that span as well.
Given the lack of competition that he's faced and the fact that this is his debut at Augusta, there's a reason Canter's odds are so long. But what makes him a dark horse this week is the ball striking that is way more valuable coming into this tournament than his odds indicate.
4. Patrick Reed (+8000)
Arguably golf's biggest villain deserves a look every time we go to The Masters and for good reason. Even with the move the LIV Golf, that hasn't remotely affected his play when he's gotten to Augusta. In four of his last five starts at the year's first major, Reed has finished T12 or better, including T4 in 2023. The one outlier was in 2022 when he came in solo 35th, which is still fine enough form.
Now, Reed comes to this hallowed ground for The Masters in 2025 in real form. He's registered three Top 10 finishes on LIV in his last four starts and his T7 at Doral this past week saw him rush out to the top of the leaderboard early. He is flashing some elite game that is complete throughout the bag and not just relying on his upper-echelon short game exclusively.
Sitting among the best players in the field in terms of course history as a past winner as well and combining that with his form, 80-1 just feels a little too long for someone with this track record and current level of play.
3. Keegan Bradley (+11000)
I'll be the first to admit that I'm at least mildly skeptical of Keegan Bradley when it comes to his overall win equity this season, not just at The Masters. He seems motivated to be able to rightly pick himself as a playing captain for the U.S. Ryder Cup team this fall but there is also a lot that goes into that which could keep his focus not entirely on the tournament at hand as well.
Outside of the narratives, though, Bradley is playing some stellar golf, having not missed a cut this season and registering a T5 at the API not long ago along with only two finishes in eight starts outside of the Top 35 (and five of them of Top 20 or better). The numbers back that up in a nice way too, as Bradley is 16th in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 20 rounds and Top 20 on approach from both 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards.
Bradley has never finished better than T22 at The Masters in his career, but two of his best career finishes (T22 and T23) have come in the last two years with his return to Augusta after a four-year drought of not qualifying. It'd be a helluva story if the captain could get it done, and his game is in shape to contend.
2. J.J. Spaun (+12000)
Let's get weird with J.J. Spaun for a little bit. I took a glance at Spaun initially when I saw that he was solo 23rd at The Masters a year ago in his debut, which is always something to take note of. When you then start to dig a little deeper into his statistical profile, you start to see a player who is figuring out his game in a way he may never have before, as evidenced by a runner-up at THE PLAYERS and a T2 at the Cognizant.
Spaun's approach play has been world-class over the past couple of months, ranking second in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green. The big improvement hast come with his short game. It's not elite but moving up to 23rd in Bogey Avoidance over that span means a ton to me. He's playing like a player capable of taking advantage of how well he's striking the ball right now.
Though we haven't seen Spaun put a tournament away this year, unfortunately, he's playing far too well among some guys who simply aren't to be at 120-1 and not take at least a small peak at him at Augusta.
1. Sergio Garcia (+9000)
This could look monumentally stupid come Sunday (or even Friday evening) considering what Sergio Garcia has done of late at The Masters, despite being a past champion. He's missed the cut at Augusta in the last two years and in three of his last four starts here. That is, of course, not what you want to see when it comes to recent form.
At the same time, I can't possibly ignore how well Garcia has been playing. On LIV Golf and the Asian Tour, he has just one finish outside the Top 20 in six starts, including a win at LIV Hong Kong and a solo third at Doral last week as well. The way he's doing it stands out even more as he ranks Top 5 on LIV in fairways hit, scrambling and Greens in Regulation. He's back to his DNA as a ball-striker but is doing so with average but reliable putting to complement that.
The way Sergio is playing right now, even at 45 years old, is too perfect of a fit for Augusta for us to possibly look past this wek, so we're taking him and running with it at 90-1.