The Moonshot: Vladdy's future, Pete Alonso suitors, Cooperstown chatter and more
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
As we enter the heart of the MLB offseason, Pete Alonso remains a free agent. Which potential suitor, minus the Mets, might be desperate enough to give in to his demands?
Robert Murray: I’ll say the San Francisco Giants, mainly because they have such a need at first base and are shopping Lamonte Wade Jr. But let’s be real. The team that makes the most sense for Alonso is, and always will be, the New York Mets. He thrived in New York. The franchise loves him and he’s contributed some of the biggest moments in Mets history. I don’t expect him to sign a long-term contract anywhere. Rather, I’d look for a short-term deal with an opt-out after the first season.
Zachary Rotman: I too believe that the Mets make a lot more sense than any other team, and would also argue that the San Francisco Giants make the most sense as an external suitor. Buster Posey has made a couple of exciting splashes, signing Willy Adames and Justin Verlander, but this Giants team still has work to do if they want to seriously compete in the NL West. Adding a bat of Alonso’s caliber, at the very least, gets them closer in what should be a brutal division and brutal NL Wild Card race.
Chris Landers: The Giants are already taken, so let’s get weird: Why not the Toronto Blue Jays? It sure seems like talks with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are going south, and the team only has a month left to close a $100 million gap before Vladdy shuts things down – and prepares to hit the market next winter. All signs are pointing to an inevitable trade, and if that’s the case, Ross Atkins needs to start thinking about a replacement at first base. Alonso would fit the bill, and we know Toronto has a ton of money to throw around. If player and team get desperate enough, it could make sense.
Terrence Jordan: The Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year deal last month, otherwise I would have picked them to make a Juan Soto-inspired spite move. I’ll go with the Cubs, who could supplement their move for Kyle Tucker with a big righty bat to protect him.
Entering Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s final season under contract, what moves can the Blue Jays still make to convince Vladdy to sign an extension? And which looming suitor should be favored to land Guerrero Jr. if they fail to do so?
Robert Murray: Maybe Alex Bregman? I don’t think Anthony Santander or any of the other free agents remaining will be enough to convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay. Things are bleak in Toronto right now and it’s entirely possible that the Blue Jays’ lack of high-end activity the past two offseasons could cost them Guerrero Jr. when he becomes a free agent next winter.
Zachary Rotman: As Robert said, it’s tough to make the argument that any of the free agents still available can do much to help convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay. A move that the Jays absolutely can make, though, is extending Bo Bichette. Yes, Bichette had a rough injury-riddled 2024 campaign, but ensuring that he, at the very least, will be part of the team long-term gives Guerrero the peace of mind knowing that an All-Star-caliber player will be hitting in front of or behind him for several years to come.
Chris Landers: Well, I just sold them up the river in my previous blurb, but let’s try and imagine what might convince Vladdy to stay. None of the free agents on the market right now seem likely to move the needle all that much, save maybe Alex Bregman. But if Toronto signs Bregman and Anthony Santander and manages to swing a trade for, say, Luis Castillo, suddenly a Wild Card spot doesn’t seem so far-fetched? But those are some very, very big ifs, and it really seems like Guerrero Jr. is as good as gone. He wised up and patched things over with the Yankees last summer, but I’m not buying it; the Red Sox sure seem like the leaders in the clubhouse right now if he does make it to free agency.
Terrence Jordan: I’m not sure what to recommend, because it seems like the Blue Jays have been in on every free agent but have never been able to close the deal. Call it the curse of Shohei Ohtani. At this point, they need to accept that Vlad Jr. is gone and transition to a full rebuild. As for where he’ll go? I’m going to go back to the Bronx Bombers, who very conveniently will have a spot opened up at first after this year. I know Guerrero has said he’d never go to the Yankees, but the fact that he walked his comments back last year means he’s at least thought about it.
Cooperstown chatter is upon us. If you could cast a Hall-of-Fame ballot right now under the guise of the BBWAA, what would it look like, and who’s the best player that won’t make the cut?
Zachary Rotman: My ballot would include Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, Billy Wagner, Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, and Chase Utley. The best player that wouldn’t make the cut (outside of those suspended for use of PED’s like Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez), would probably be Felix Hernandez. In his prime, King Felix was as good as anyone in the game, as evidenced by his six All-Star appearances, two ERA titles, and his Cy Young Award, but longevity does matter. At the end of the day, he just wasn’t elite for long enough.
Chris Landers: Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Chase Utley and Billy Wagner. It hurts the six-year-old Yankee fan in me to leave Andy Pettitte off, but I value peak a little more than longevity in this exercise, and his falls just short. It also hurts to leave off both Bobby Abreu (very good in his 20s, but not good enough to make up for falling off a cliff when he turned 30) and Felix Hernandez (as good as anyone at his best, but just not for quite long enough).
Terrence Jordan: I’ve got the same ballot as Zach, except I am putting King Felix in, and I’m putting Chase Utley in jail where he belongs. As a fellow Mets fan, I’m wondering why Zach has broken his oath to never say anything nice about Utley. Just because we got Soto doesn’t mean we can soften up, man! As for the best players left off, I know the thinking has shifted for a lot of people on this, but to me, if you cheated by taking PEDs, you don’t deserve to be celebrated with baseball’s highest honor, so Manny, A-Rod and Pettitte are all out despite being great players that were talented enough to get in without any help.
Based on several key factors – contract length, AAV and fit – which free agent is the best bargain buy so far this winter and why? Who’s the most overpaid?
Robert Murray: I’ll go Danny Jansen and the Tampa Bay Rays agreeing to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. Jansen had far more lucrative offers in free agency, sources say, but elected to go to Tampa for consistent playing time. I think that could look like one of the better contracts in baseball this winter.
Zachary Rotman: I think the deal that Gleyber Torres signed with the Detroit Tigers can prove to be one of the most team-friendly deals inked this winter. He’s coming off a down year but finished strongly, had a solid postseason, and for virtually his entire career, has been an above-average hitter, especially at the second base position. His defense and base running leave a lot to be desired, but for a Tigers team that badly needed an offensive boost, particularly with a right-handed hitter, I think Torres will fit in nicely and have a good year in Detroit. Considering the fact that he’s making less in terms of AAV and years than Frankie Montas is, the value was great. Worst case, if he has another down year, the Tigers only gave him a one-year commitment. In terms of the most overpaid, I’m going to go with Luis Severino. He had a nice year for the New York Mets in 2023, but the A’s guaranteed him three years worth over $22 million annually while also coughing up a draft pick. Severino is probably worth that when healthy, but this past season was his first year making more than 19 starts since 2018, and he had one of the lowest strikeout rates of his career. Hopefully, this contract ages better than I think it will.
Chris Landers: Is it crazy to say Corbin Burnes? I realize that $210 million can’t really be considered a bargain, but he took considerably less to go to Arizona, and it seems like he solved the cutter issue that plagued him early on in 2024. If so, this is one of the best pitchers in the league and should remain so for the majority of this contract. As for overpays, I’m torn between two starting pitchers: Luis Severino and Max Fried. The Severino contract is comical, a clear case of an Athletics franchise that knows it needs to spend money and had to find someone who would take it as quickly as possible; there’s simply no justification for guaranteeing him north of $20 million. Fried is a much better pitcher, but he was a similarly desperate case, and going to eight years might look pretty rough for the Yankees in due time.
Terrence Jordan: I was surprised that no team stepped up to give Walker Buehler more than a one-year $21 million deal after the way he looked in the postseason, so even though the Red Sox only have him for 2025, I’ll go with that one as the biggest bargain. Chris is right on the overpays on Severino and Fried, but I’ll go with Sevy as my pick because I actually said out loud, “Wait, he got how much?!” when I read the news on my phone. Good on him for getting that deal, but that’s a crazy overpay.
Inside Robert Murray's notebook
- Free-agent reliever Tanner Scott’s market is extensive, and includes many big market teams such as the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and others.
- The Angels are considering offensive reinforcements.
- The Pirates, seeking offensive upgrades, have interest in Alex Verdugo.
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