Upside and Motor: Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin, and the perils of premature takes

The 2025 NBA Draft class is widely considered one of the best in recent memory. Cooper Flagg continues to soak up headlines at the top, but there's plenty of elite talent for scouts to ponder and prognosticate.

That said, as with any draft class, it's easy to get run away with the emotional high of college basketball's return. We tend to overreact strongly to the first couple weeks of action, which invariably leads to course correction down the line. We are all guilty of it. An unexpected prospects pops out of the gate, we all move him into the top-10, and he finishes the season off of draft boards entirely.

We have a couple prime examples of this phenomenon with the 2025 draft.

Egor Demin and Kasparas Jakucionis are examples of why we shouldn't overvalue softball production

Obviously, it's still early, so we can pump the breaks on sweeping takeaways and definitive evaluations. That said, the buzziest non-Cooper Flagg prospect of the first month was BYU's Egor Demin. I've already sung his praises for Upside and Motor; we all jumped on the bandwagon.

He picked apart bottom-dwelling competition with a surgeon's knife, diming up teammates and showcasing a more robust scoring repertoire than initially expected. He fits a mold every NBA team desires — the 6-foot-9 'point guard' with sharp processing speed and tremendous creativity. The league is starved for jumbo playmakers, and we all saw stars when Demin dropped 18 points, 11 assists, and four made 3s on Central Arkansas.

Well, Demin is finally starting to play "real" competition, and the production has been far less impressive. He went 0-for-10 on Tuesday in a loss to Providence, finishing with six points, two assists, and a turnover. In his recent three-game slate against Ole Miss, NC State, and Providence — "real" teams — Demin has averaged 10.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists (2.7 turnovers) on .267/.125/.800 splits.

He's due for better days and this is not a case for aborting on your Demin stock, but it's worth remembering the difference between beating up on Central Arkansas and facing legitimate ACC, SEC competition. Demin has struggled with the sudden uptick in physicality, as can be expected for a 190-pound freshman.

There is still plenty to love with Demin's playmaking eye, ball-handling tempo, and improved shooting chops, but he's going to suffer through growing pains. The defense hasn't been great in these games either. Rather than spiking him into the top three on draft boards, perhaps we should keep Demin in more of a "wait and see" category, full of promise but not quite put-together.

The opposite side of that coin is Illinois freshman Kasparas Jakucionis, another European prospect who made the leap to college amid the changing NIL landscape.

Jakucionis is following essentially the opposite early-season arc compared to Demin. He struggled against the softballs at the front of the schedule. He didn't register more than four shot attempts in a game against Eastern Illinois, SIU-Edwardsville, or Oakland — his first three college basketball games. Jakucionis registered four points and five turnovers against Oakland, a sobering third appearance in the States.

Folks were ready to jump ship, or at least to start fading Jakucionis stock. Lo and behold, we've now seen Jakucionis against "real" competition, and he's flourishing. Some prospects just need a few games to get their feet wet and some bright lights to wake them up.

In a highly anticipated matchup against John Calipari's Arkansas team last week, Jakucionis was a stone-cold killer, dropping 23 points, six rebounds, and four assists on 5-of-8 shooting (2-of-5 from deep). He still dealt with turnover issues, but Jakucionis found fractures in the Razorbacks defense, got to the charity stripe eight times, and made big shot after big shot, showcasing a blend of size, playmaking flare, and shooting touch that is bound to keep NBA scouts hooked.

There are unavoidable similarities between Demin and Jakucionis, who both spent last season with top professional clubs in Spain (Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, respectively), and who both profile as tall, extremely skilled playmakers who thrive off of dribble penetration and ball screen actions. The primary takeaway here, frankly, is to limit how much you actually take away. It's more important to pinpoint the essence of a prospect at this stage, still weighing their resume before college hoops and not reacting too strongly to a small sample size of high-variance games.

Demin isn't going to stink it up against quality competition all season, and Jakucionis obviously isn't defined by that stinker against Oakland. Both are tantalizing prospects with high ceilings and a lot left to figure out, despite their intriguing disparities out of the gate.

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You're wrong to keep overlooking Dylan Harper at the top of draft boards

This is a loaded draft class. There is no "wrong" No. 2 behind Cooper Flagg, who still deserves the unchallenged No. 1 crown in this writer's humble opinion. There is a lot of variety out there — Ace Bailey at ESPN, Egor Demin at The Athletic, Dylan Harper at No Ceilings. It's a pick-your-poison situation.

That said, Harper should be verging on the consensus favorite right now. There hasn't been a more consistently impressive freshman to date. It's early, so for all the reasons stated above, we can't coronate him yet. But Harper is passing test after test, dominating on a nightly basis as the head of Rutgers' offensive snake.

Through eight games, Harper is averaging 23.8 points, 4.5 points, and 4.6 assists on .511/.286/.793 splits. That leads the Big Ten in scoring. Skeptics will point straight to the 3-point numbers, but Harper is otherwise in total command of things. He's putting constant strain on defenses, making up for limited burst with a compelling blend of body control, strength, and physicality on drives to the cup.

Harper is on track to become one of the best rim pressure guards in recent NBA Draft history.

At 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds, Harper is living at the rim, scoring efficiently and leveraging his gravity as a slasher to create for teammates. Assuming the 3-point numbers come along at the next level, there's not much keeping Harper away from stardom. It's fair to be worried about that 28.6 percent marker, but Harper's outlier traits and overwhelming production — at 18 years old, no less — is difficult to deny.

Again, it's early, but the Harper Hype Train is rapidly gaining steam.

Who are the top five in the way-too-early 2024 NBA re-draft?

Look, it's way too early to "re-draft" the 2024 NBA draft, so take this with a grain of salt. That said, my opinions did not align with the decision-makers atop the actual draft board. Zaccharie Risacher was not my No. 1 prospect.

As such, I feel entitled to a playful bit of overreaction and imposed course-correction for teams who potentially made a mistake. Fair warning: my Jared McCain enthusiam has reached dangerous levels.

1. Hawks select Duke guard Jared McCain

The defensive limitations of Trae Young and Jared McCain are severe, but the shot-making chops are off the charts. McCain has easily popped the most compared to his peers, leading all rookies in scoring as a 19-year-old on an ostensible "contender" in Philadelphia. McCain has been trying his best to keep Philadelphia afloat. He's an elite shooter, but more than that, he's an excellent processor, consistently one step ahead of the defense when it comes to passing teammates open or relocating into open space. This was a weak draft. McCain's outlier shooting, high IQ, and effortless charm are difficult to deny.

2. Wizards select Perth center Alex Sarr

Frankly, the Wizards are probably thrilled with their pick. It has been a work in progress offensively for Alex Sarr, but he's embracing the freedom inherent to Washington's rebuild. The defensive numbers, meanwhile, are genuinely astounding for a 19-year-old. Sarr's mobility and activity level at 7-foot-1 is virtually unmatched around the league. He's going to anchor a special Wizards defense one day.

3. Rockets select Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard

Don't think the Rockets change course either. It has been difficult for Reed Sheppard to carve out minutes in a deep Houston backcourt, but that's more a testament to Houston's depth than an indictment of Sheppard, who dominated Summer League and preseason minutes and shot over 50 percent from deep as a freshman at Kentucky.

4. Spurs select G League Ignite wing Ron Holland

Ron Holland was my personal No. 1 and my stock ain't budging. It has been a bumpy start in Detroit, as expected, but Holland's 6-foot-7 frame, athleticism, and defensive playmaking have all made an imprint on the Pistons second unit. He's responsible for a couple flash plays every night and the scoring is going to come around eventually, especially once the Pistons figure out which members of this core are essential.

5. Pistons select UConn center Donovan Clingan

Donovan Clingan has made the most of sparse minutes in Portland. It's clear he is the Blazers' center of the future, so the 20-year-old is only biding his time until Deandre Ayton is traded or benched. Clingan's hulking 7-foot-3 frame just suffocates the paint on defense. He's one of the sharpest rim protectors to enter the league in a while and his useful blend of screen-setting and play-finishing would play beautifully next to Cade Cunningham, with all due respect to Jalen Duren.

Who holds the belt right now? A mini-NBA mock draft