After an incredibly arduous and drawn-out negotiating process, the New York Mets and Pete Alonso agreed to terms on a two-year, $54 million contract to keep him in Queens — for now.
Alonso's deal, in classic Scott Boras fashion, includes an opt-out after the first season. He will make $30 million in 2025, then hypothetically become eligible to retest the market. One has to imagine Alonso wants a more stable, long-term commitment the next time around.
The Polar Bear has become synonymous with New York at this point. It's difficult to imagine him wearing a different uniform. That said, the Mets very nearly went in another direction this winter. Alonso at least talked to other teams. Even if that was a simple leverage ploy, there were moments of genuine tension between the All-Star first baseman and the Mets' front office.
Now another first baseman looms over next offseason. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is scheduled to hit free agency and the Mets are a popular hypothetical destination. The thing is... Alonso could throw a wrench into those plans by opting in. There's a chance this situation gets very uncomfortable, especially if Steve Cohen's "baseball people" advocate for Guerrero.
Loyalty is a fickle friend in MLB. Alonso and the Mets are meant for one another, but that relationship will strain quickly if New York is presented with a more optimal option.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s free agency threatens to complicate Mets' relationship with Pete Alonso
There are a couple ways this could play out. If Alonso opts out, the Mets will just drop him like dead weight if it means lining up Guerrero's arrival. If Alonso opts in, however, and Guerrero comes knocking... it won't be pretty.
Barring a drastic decision to move Guerrero back to third base to accommodate Alonso, it's hard to see such a scenario ending well. Either the Mets can line up a trade and send Alonso to a club he has no interest in playing for, or New York would be stuck with Alonso while Guerrero signs with another team — potentially right across town in the Bronx.
Either way, it would put tremendous strain on the organization. MLB free agency is not conducted in silence. Generally speaking, if the Mets take a strong interest in Guerrero, Alonso will hear about it, either straight from the source or from the media. Baseball is a cold, at times heartless business. A lot of these storybook pairings between player and team hinge entirely on circumstance. If the Mets are presented with a better business opportunity, like Guerrero, then Alonso starts to look awfully expendable. Sentiment goes out the window.
Alonso, 30, is coming off a down year — .788 OPS with 34 home runs and 88 RBI. He was fantastic in the postseason, though, giving New York the offensive spark needed to ride all the way to the NLCS. He will play an essential role protecting Juan Soto and the top of the Mets' lineup this season. There's not a better pure power bat in baseball when Alonso is swinging well.
Unfortunately, he just does not compare to Guerrero, a 25-year-old rising star with one of baseball's best hitting profiles. He can work the entire plate and hit equally for contact and power, not unlike his father. Vladdy Jr. won't rake balls out of the dirt or lunge out of the zone like Vladdy Sr., but the numbers bear a striking resemblance. He finished last season with a .940 OPS and 30 home runs, posting 6.2 WAR. That is more than double Alonso's 2.6 WAR.
If Alonso gets in New York's way of a franchise talent like Guerrero, it could get ugly.