What needs to happen for Ohio State-Oregon winner to overtake Texas for No. 1 spot

Could we have a new No. 1 when the dust settles after Week 7?
Iowa v Ohio State
Iowa v Ohio State / Jason Mowry/GettyImages
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After a blood-letting for the ages last weekend — no, you're not dreaming, Alabama really did lose to Vanderbilt, that's an actual thing that actually happened — the eyes of the college football world now head out west, where a top-three showdown is set to take place between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon in Eugene on Saturday afternoon. There's a ton on the line: College Football Playoff seeding, the inside track to a Big 10 title, Ryan Day's job security and even, potentially, the top spot in next week's AP Top 25 poll.

That sound you here is a chorus of hollering from down in Austin, where the Texas Longhorns currently occupy the No. 1 ranking after sailing through their first five games without much of a sweat. Of course, that could change in a big way on Saturday in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. But let's say that the Horns do take care of business at the Cotton Bowl — hardly a given in this rivalry — could Texas still be at risk of losing the top spot? Let's dive in.

Should Ohio State-Oregon winner jump Texas for No. 1 ranking?

We'll start with the obvious: If Texas loses, the winner of the Ohio State-Oregon matchup will be a shoo-in as the new No. 1 come Monday. In that case, there would be just 10 unbeatens remaining: Ohio State or Oregon, Penn State, Miami, Indiana, Iowa State, Pitt, BYU, Army, Navy and Liberty. We can toss out the three G5s on that list, and Indiana, Iowa State and Pitt have yet to be tested against a ranked team. Miami is playing with fire right now, and Penn State's early schedule has been pretty soft as well (though they have a tough road trip on tap against USC). Ohio State or Oregon, at 6-0 and armed with a top-three win, would have a very easy claim.

But what if Texas beats Oklahoma? That would give the Horns two wins over ranked opponents, although it's fair to point out that neither the Sooners nor Michigan have been as formidable as we expected at the start of the season. Would that quantity outweigh the quality of a winner over an Ohio State or Oregon? The answer likely comes down to how each game plays out — and who emerges victorious in Eugene.

Let's say Texas harasses young QB Michael Hawkins and has no problem beating their arch rivals. In that case, it would take something really extraordinary — maybe a three-score blowout in which there's no doubt who the elite team between the two is — from either the Buckeyes or Ducks to threaten the Horns' place at No. 1. Texas has simply been too sturdy so far, and there's still enough respect for Brent Venables and a very salty defense. If Texas has problems, though, things would then get pretty interesting: Given Michigan's struggles so far this season, you could make a compelling argument that Oklahoma is the Longhorns' toughest opponent to date, and needing a late score or a late stop to escape with a win would call in to question just how good Steve Sarkisian's squad really is.

Combine that with, say, an Ohio State win on the road, and suddenly the Buckeyes' resume might have the edge. Ryan Day would be able to point to one of the two most impressive wins of this young season (give or take Alabama's win over Georgia) as well as a thorough dispatching of an Iowa team that we at least know can play great defense. Oregon probably has a little more convincing to do — don't forget that the Ducks let Idaho hang around in Week 2 and very nearly lost to Boise State in Week 2 — and would likely need a more authoritative win on Saturday to leapfrog Texas. But the point remains: It's still early, and in our new landscape, there's still a ton we don't know about each of these three teams as we hit October. This Ohio State-Oregon game will be our most significant data point yet, and it's likely to sway a ton of voters.

Projected AP Top 25 after Alabama, Tennessee, USC, Michigan upset in Week 6. dark. Next. Projected AP Top 25 after Alabama, Tennessee, USC, Michigan upset in Week 6