WNBA season win totals: Over/under picks for every team in 2026

The 2026 WNBA season tips off Friday night, with 2026 set to be the first season of the new-look league, with 15 teams and 44 regular-season games on the docket. All this, plus the frenzied offseason that saw a ton of player movement, makes it hard to get a read on what to expect from each team in the league as far as win/loss goes, especially if you're the kind of person who likes to bet on things like that.

But don't worry! I'm here to help guide you through the regular season win over and unders for 2026, with a prediction for what each team will do relative to what the sportsbooks are predicting. (Win totals for this are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, so they may vary a bit at other sportsbooks.)

Atlanta Dream: Under 29.5

On paper, the Atlanta Dream are the league's third-best team, and an over/under set at 29.5 wins reflects that. The problem here is that basketball isn't played on paper, and my concerns about Atlanta's shooting have me worried that the team will fall short of this mark.

Personally, I'm not thrilled to even bet this one, because the Dream could shock everyone by suddenly finding the 3-point shooting they need to make everything work effectively. But even if that happens, it wouldn't be immediate. We might see the Dream sitting around 23 or 24 wins with a handful of games to play, with the team going on a late winning streak that puts them right around that 29.5 mark.

Chicago Sky: Over 19.5

Look, I'm very critical of the Chicago Sky front office. Trading a future first for Jacy Sheldon? Bad move. Trading second-round picks so the expansion teams wouldn't pick any of their players? Seems like a waste. With that said, Chicago made a number of moves this offseason that put the team in a position to finish around .500.

The biggest of those is signing Skylar Diggins, but the addition of Rickea Jackson, Azura Stevens and Natasha Cloud are huge as well, as they put the Sky in a better spot than they've been since the end of the brief Candace Parker era.

Connecticut Sun: Under 11.5

This is another tough one for me. The Sun won 11 games last year, but the two leading scorers from that team — Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles — are gone.

Adding Brittney Griner is cool and all, especially if she's still on the roster in 2027 when the franchise moves to Houston, but overall, this is a slightly worse group than the team had in 2026. That should make the under an easy bet here, but the presence of a couple more expansion teams gives Connecticut more chances to earn wins, making it slightly harder to project, though I still lean toward the under.

Dallas Wings: Under 22.5

I love how Dallas transformed its roster this offseason. Adding Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard to the frontcourt is huge, and the chemistry between Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd will be huge, though Fudd will need some time to adjust to the physicality of the WNBA.

My issue here is that Arike Ogunbowale is still a weird fit beside Bueckers, the small forward position is a weakness and the depth is questionable. It's a far better team than the one that went 10-34 last season, but is it good enough to expect the win total to more than double? Ehh.

Golden State Valkyries: Under 23.5

One of the easiest unders for me, because I still don't fully understand how the Valkyries won 23 games last season. This time around, they've added Gabby Williams to the roster, but that was really the only notable big move this offseason.

With Tiffany Hayes a year older and Kayla Thornton coming off knee surgery, I just don't see the Valkyries recapturing the magic of their inaugural season. I'd say they land somewhere around 19 wins by the time the season is over.

Indiana Fever: Under 29.5

The Indiana Fever season will depend on what version of Caitlin Clark we get. As a rookie, she set the league on fire, but an injury-plagued 2025 saw her limited to 13 games while her efficiency cratered.

Beyond the Clark uncertainty, I'm taking the under because I'm really worried about this team's wing depth. Yes, a Clark-Kelsey Mitchell backcourt might be the league's best unit, but the starting three and four are likely Sophie Cunningham and Monique Billings, and behind them, the backups are weak.

Las Vegas Aces: Over 30.5

The defending champions should be viewed as the favorites once again, and while hitting the over here requires the team to go at least 31-13, I think that's well within reach.

While many teams around the league saw turnover this offseason, the Aces return their core and have added to it by signing Chennedy Carter and Brianna Turner. In addition, we should get a full season from Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, giving the team added frontcourt depth. As long as the Jewell Loyd we saw in the second half of the season returns and not the one who couldn't hit anything early in 2024, Vegas should have a viable shot at finishing with single-digit losses.

Los Angeles Sparks: Over 25.5

Last season, the Sparks won 21 games. Just five of those came over the first 17 games of the season, with the team going .500 or better in each of the final three months of the season. Once the Sparks figured things out, they were a very good basketball team. It's just they dug themselves an early hole.

That shouldn't happen this year. Nneka Ogwumike returns to shore up the inside game and while trading Rickea Jackson for Ariel Atkins might be a downgrade on paper, I think Atkins is a really good fit for this roster. The Sparks should easily be a playoff team in 2026.

Minnesota Lynx: Under 25.5

Easiest bet there is for me, TBH. Yes, Cheryl Reeve is arguably the GOAT of WNBA coaches, but with Jessica Shepard and Alanna Smith both gone plus Napheesa Collier set to miss time with her ankle injury, I just don't see the Lynx having the juice to win more than 25 games.

Maybe I'm wrong here, but I just don't see it with this roster. Adding Natasha Howard is solid and getting Dorka Juhasz back could be huge, but it's still a downgrade from 2025.

New York Liberty: Under 32.5

The New York Liberty are title contenders, but I think hitting their win over will be difficult because the team will have some major growing pains in the early part of the season.

First, New York is without Sabrina Ionescu for at least a couple of weeks after the former No. 1 overall pick suffered an ankle injury. That leaves the backcourt with some question marks. Then, there's the concern about how new addition Satou Sabally fits in the roster, as her shooting can be inconsistent and it will likely take a bit to smooth everything out. Title threat? Yes. But finishing somewhere around 30-14 after a slow start would make a lot of sense.

Phoenix Mercury: Over 23.5

This is basically last year's team minus Satou Sabally and while Sabally was good, does losing her mean the Mercury win at least four fewer games in 2026?

It could, but I think a team led by Alyssa Thomas will find a way to avoid that. The last time a team with Thomas won fewer than 25 games was 2020; since she's become this fully-unlocked version of herself, her teams have been very, very good. That shouldn't change in 2026.

Portland Fire: Under 9.5

I just don't know how this Portland roster is going to win basketball games. While the Tempo took a "let's be a decent basketball team" approach to the expansion draft, the Fire definitely took more of a "let's try to get JuJu Watkins in the 2027 WNBA Draft" approach. Which is a fair way of going about things!

But 2026 will be rough. Bridget Carleton and Carla Leite are your primary scoring threats, and this whole roster just feels like a lot of players who were good in college before struggling in the WNBA, with the Fire taking a chance that maybe they can develop into something.

Seattle Storm: Under 14.5

It feels wrong to write this, but the Seattle Storm are probably about to have one of their worst seasons ever. We're talking, like, the 2023 season when the team won just 27.5 percent of its games after Breanna Stewart left levels of bad.

The frontcourt trio of Ezi Magbegor, Dominque Malonga and Awa Fam is intriguing, but Magbegor is currently sidelined and Fam is a rookie who will likely take some time to adjust to WNBA play. In the backcourt, you're starting...Natisha Heideman and rookie Flau'jae Johnson? It's going to be a long season.

Toronto Tempo: Over 15.5

I'd say just barely over here, but I think the backcourt strength in Toronto is enough to eke out a few more wins than you might expect.

While Portland went young with its initial roster, the Tempo added Marina Mabrey, Brittney Sykes and Kia Nurse. Sykes and Mabrey should play off each other well, and the frontcourt might be notably weaker, but players like Temi Fagbenle, Nyara Sabally and Nikolina Milic have clear upside.

Washington Mystics: Over 18.5

The Mystics won 16 games last year and added a WNBA-ready back-to-the-basket center in Lauren Betts. Sure, trading away Sykes during the season in 2025 weakened the team and I don't love their backcourt at all with Georgia Moore and Sonia Citron, but there's talent here.

With that said, I've probably talked myself both ways with this roster more than with any other one, so I'm hesitant to bet it at all. The lack of shooting could doom the team, or the huge amount of frontcourt talent could push the Mystics to the playoffs. Do you really need to bet on the over/under of all 15 teams, or can you afford to skip one? If it's the latter, skip this one.

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