Fantasy Baseball 2016 Outfield Rankings 20-11

The outfield position is the deepest of all the positions, for obvious reasons. Those ranked between 11 and 20 have a lot to offer late in drafts.

Other positions: Catcher (10-1), First Base (20-11), (10-1), Second Base (15-11), (10-1), Shortstops (15-11), (10-1), Third Base (20-11), (10-1), Outfield (50-21)

The top-20 outfielders are amazing. The power, speed, OBP. Everything. Those ranked between 11 and 20 are a unique bunch. There are some veterans still with value and younger players who are ready to become mainstays in the top 20. Some of these players will be drafted in the earlier rounds, while you can wait on the rest. None of them should be your No. 1 outfielder, but having two or three from this group could make your outfield core dangerous.

I use a couple of different of criteria when developing my rankings. I look at their 2015 performance, where they finished on the Player Rater, their career performance and if this past season was an outlier, their surroundings (lineup support) and where I think they project this season. Some of it may be subjective, especially the projections, but I try to keep it in line with other fantasy sites.

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The stats I use for the projections are runs, home runs, RBI, steals and batting average. I know there are leagues that use OBP or OPS instead of average, but they are in the minority. I will keep it for the majority that use ESPN standard five categories. I do factor in hits though because it more or less affects average (or OBP).

This list will feature the outfielders ranked 21 to 50. I won’t write about every single one, but highlight a player or two in each tier that interest me. If I or one of my colleagues already wrote about a player, I will include that link. I will do my best to exclude certain players that have been ranked in other positions, like a Chris Davis or Ben Zobrist. So, keep that in mind before saying I left someone out.

Here are the outfielders I ranked 20 to 11.

Next: No. 20: Corey Dickerson

So much potential, but so little production.

Corey Dickerson played in just 67 games last season. He suffered two broken ribs on June 30 while diving for a ball. He finished with 10 home runs, 31 RBI and a .304 average. He was the 85th-best outfielder on the Player Rater.

He benefitted greatly from batting in the hitter-friendly Coors Field. In 131 games in 2014, he hit 24 home runs, 76 RBI and .312 with eight steals. This is what his ceiling would have been if he stayed in Colorado this season. Unfornately, that isn’t the case. He was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays.

He became less patient at the plate. He saw a 2.8 percent increase in his strikeout rate and 3.4 decrease in his walk rate in 66 fewer games. His ground ball and fly ball rates have gone in opposite directions. Whether it’s because of injury or pure frustration, Dickerson was swinging at everything, 13.1 swinging strike and 42.4 O-Swing rates.

Dickerson is listed as the Rays’ starting left fielder. They do have enough depth if they need to, or forced to, give Dickerson a rest.  It’s hard to put Dickerson any higher on this list because of his injury potential. If you draft him, expect him to miss at least 25 games.

If he plays in 130 games, I expect him to hit 18 home runs, 75 RBI and .288. The Rays lineup is definitely not as strong as Colorado’s and Tropicana Field is not friendly as Coors Field.

Next: No. 19: Jason Heyward

The Chicago Cubs added some major pieces needed to make it back to the playoffs in 2016. Jason Heyward signed an eight-year deal with the Cubs in December after spending five years with the Atlanta Braves and one with the St. Louis Cardinals.

As a part of a better lineup, Heyward finished as the 17th-best outfielder on the Player Rater. He hit 13 home runs, 60 RBI and .293 in 154 games. He posted a .359 on-base percentage, the highest since 2010. He lowered his strikeout rate, but his walk rate suffered.

His ground ball rate rose by 12 percent and his fly ball rate dropped by 10 percent. Yet, for some reason, his HR/FB rate rose by 5.5 percent. He made better contact with the ball last season compared to 2014. He had a 22.4 soft contact and 28.9 hard contact rates.

Heyward is slotted to hit atop the Cubs lineup, in front of co-new signee Ben Zobrist, which makes for a dangerous one through five hitters. The power numbers just aren’t there, but you can still expect 14 to 17 home runs with a .280 average.

Next: No. 18: J.D. Martinez

The Detroit Tigers were an average hitting team, 18th in home runs, seventh in slugging percentage and first in batting average. In his second season with the team, J.D. Martinez had a career year. In 158 games, he hit 38 home runs, 102 RBI and .282. He finished 12th among outfielders on the Player Rater.

The negative part was that he had 178 strikeouts, 27.1 percent. If you’re in a points league that scores negatively for strikouts, I may look elsewhere for your second, or third, outfielder. His batted ball percentages obviously went in the right directions from 2014 to 2015. He hit the ball in the air and spread it around more.

Hitting in a lineup with Miguel Cabrera, a healthy Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler and the guy next on the list makes Martinez a dangerous batter for opposing pitchers. I don’t see him hitting 38 home runs again, but more around the 30 to 32 mark with 105 RBI and .285 average. Here is more of my analysis for Martinez in 2016.

Next: No. 17: Justin Upton

My colleague Brad Kelly wrote about Justin Upton‘s 2016 projections here. In his one and only year with the San Diego Padres, he hit 26 home runs, 81 RBI and .251 with 19 steals in 150 games. He then signed with the Tigers earlier this year.

He spent the early part of his career billed as the “next big thing.” Unfortunately for Upton and his fantasy owners, that hasn’t been the case. He spent last year as a roller coaster-type player. He struggled in April, .259/.299/.543. May was better, .343/.418/.546. But then things went south in th summer. He hit .196/.319/.289 in June and .162/.213/.338 in July. I could keep going, but you get the idea.

The speed was a welcomed return. His 19 steals were more than the previous two seasons combined. He won’t need to run that much, so I see him getting 12 to 15 steals.

As a member of the aforementioned dangerous Tigers lineup, I expect Upton to be a little more consistent. He will be protected before and after him in the batting order. If you can deal with the power outages, he will be a No. 2 outfielder in standard leagues with 25 home runs, 92 RBI and a .270 average.

Next: No. 16: Adam Jones

Adam Jones is one of the most consistent outfielders in the league. He has five straight seasons with at least 20 home runs and 82 RBI. Last season, however, was the worst season since 2010. He hit 27 homers and 82 RBI with a .269 batting average, lowest since 2007.

Jones is an interesting hitter. He finished with a walk rate under five percent in six straight seasons. He had a 13.3 swinging strike, 65.4 first pitch strike and 47.7 O-Swing rates. He had six straight years of over 100 strikeouts. Yet, he still somehow records 150 hits.

I wrote about Jones being primed for a bounce back season here. His ground ball rate (45.8) was the best since 2007 and his fly ball rate (36.3) was the best since 2010. So, things are looking up for Jones heading into this season.

With the emergence of Manny Machado, the return of Chris Davis and signing of Pedro Alvarez, Jones has no reason not to bounce back and have 168 hits, 28 home runs, 83 RBI, .278 average.

Next: No. 15: Lorenzo Cain

What a season. Lorenzo Cain posted career numbers last season. He played in 140 games and hit 16 home runs, 72 RBI and .307 with 28 steals. He finished fifth among outfielders on the Player Rater. FIFTH. He is a clear five-tool player, but this could be the last of these kind of numbers from Cain.

He turns 30 next month and will likely bat third in the Kansas City Royals lineup. While that may not be a bad thing, increased counting stats (runs, HR, RBI), his batting average will take a tumble, especially if Alcides Escobar leads off again. Hitters that can contribute across the board are very rare. Cain did it last year and will do it again this season.

Brad Kelly calls Cain an elite oufield option. I wouldn’t say he’s elite, but I definitely think he is a top-15 outfielder. He posted a career-low 16.2 strikeout rate with a 6.1 walk rate. He lowered his ground ball rate and increased in line drive and fly ball rates. Cain made much better contact with the ball, 13.3 soft hit and 31.9 hard hit rates.

Cain will likely not repeat his 16-home run season, but I can see him hit 12 with 75 RBI and a .302 average and 25 steals.

Next: No. 14: George Springer

Talk about a change in opinion. Back in January, I wrote about George Springer being a top-10 outfielder this season. While he could finish there, there are a few other outfielders I rank ahead of him currently. He was a top prospect a few years ago, he’s been passed up by a lot of players, and some on his own team.

Springer finished as the No. 37 outfielder on the Player Rater. He hit 16 home runs, 41 RBI and .276 with 16 steals in 102 games. The hype was ridiculously high after a good half-season in 2014. He was a fifth-round pick in drafts last year. Based on his Player Rater ranking, he would have been a 15th-round pick.

He did a better job protecting the plate and making contact. He had a 24.2 strikeout rate and 11.1 walk rate. While his ground ball rate stayed exactly the same, his line drive rate rose and fly ball rate dropped. His O-Swing percentage dropped three percent and contact rate wnet up over eight percent.

The Houston Astros have a good, young core of hitters. Springer can provide owners with power, contact and speed. It’s still young in Springer’s career, but this could be the season that we figure out what kind of hitter he is for the rest of his career.

If he plays a ful season, I expect 26 home runs, 8o RBI and a .260 average with 17 steals.

Next: No. 13: Carlos Gonzalez

Will the real CarGo please stand up?

Carlos Gonzalez posted insane power numbers last season. He hit 40 home runs and 97 RBI with a .271/.325/.540 line in 153 games. His 40 homers were the most of his career. He finished 16th among outfielders on the Player Rater.

As a result of the increased power numbers, CarGo’s speed just disappeared. He had at least 20 steals in each season from 2010 to 2013. He had a collective five steals in the last two seasons, two last year. He is a contact guy, though. He lowered his strikeout rate to 21.9 percent and his walk rate increased to 7.6 percent.

However, Gonzalez struggled against the southpaws. In 87 games against a left-handed pitcher, he hit just five home runs, 19 RBI and .195/.222/.308. In daily formats, I would not use him against lefties. In a weekly league, you hope that his performance against the righties outweighs the damage hitting against lefties does.

Former writer Tav Kanwar says we should heed our expectations for Gonzalez this season, and I agree. He doesn’t run and can’t hit lefties. His average is going to take a hit, too. He can still post 25-30 home runs with a .280 average, which is the only reason he’s ranked this high. I would draft him as an OF3 instead of a OF2.

Next: No. 12: Yoenis Cespedes

Yoenis Cespedes looks like he belongs in New York. His 57 games with the Mets was nothing short of amazing. He hit 17 home runs, 44 RBI and .287. He collectively hit 35/105/.291 between the Tigers and Mets. He finished seventh among outfielders on the Player Rater.

His walk rate continued to decline at 4.9 percent and his strikeout rate, 20.9 percent, was at his career average. His power finally showed up in his age-30 season. He had a four percent increase in his hard hit rate. His ground ball and fly ball rates bad with Detroit, but he turned them around with the Mets.

If he can put together another season like this one, he will be in my top 10 next season. As of right now, he’s obviously just outside that. I do expect another 30-home run season with 95 RBI and .265. The Mets lineup is good, the loss of Daniel Murphy hurts a bit, the rest of the cast is good enough. If David Wright can stay healthy and Michael Conforto performs to our (high) expectations, then Cespedes could be elite.

Next: No. 11: Charlie Blackmon

I delcared Charlie Blackmon the most value fantasy hitter last season. He finished as the No. 4 outfielder on the Player Rater. He played in a career-high 157 games with 17 home runs, 58 RBI and a .287 average with 43 steals. The power numbers declined from 2014 to 2015, but the speed is what opened our eyes.

I am a little skeptical because he is the second (third if you include Dickerson from last season) Colorado Rockies hitter on this list. Are their stats and ranking skewed by playing half of the season at Coors Field? What about if they can perform both at home and on the road?

Blackmon hit seven homers, 35 RBI and .331/.390/.500 with 24 steals at home. He had 10 homers, 23 RBI and .238/.300/.395 with 19 steals on the road. The big difference is the batting average. He had three more home runs on the road, but just 12 more RBI and five more steals at home.

Steals are becoming harder to come by. Only three hitters stole 40 or more bases, with Blackmon being one of them. To combine that with the power, he was the only hitter with 15/40, is something hard to find.

I think Blackmon is just below the elite outfielders. He will be drafted as a late-second, early-third round pick. He will hit 17 home runs, 68 RBI and .286 with 35 steals.

Next: Wrap Up

This group of outfielders was fun to look at. There is a lot of talent. A lot. There’s power, speed, contact, defense (if you play in a league with errors). I would be okay with most of these hitters on my team. For my own personal reasons, there are one or two I’m avoiding.

I usually write about which players I’m keeping an eye on throughout the season. However, with this group, I’m keeping an eye on all of them.

Dickerson and Heyward with their new teams. Martinez’s performance after his breakout year. Upton joining Martinez and company in Detroit. Jones being consistently good. Cain and his power performance. Springer hitting up to expectations. Gonzalez, Blackmon and the “Coors Field Effect.” Cespedes earning the money.

If possible, if you go elsewhere with your first two picks, I would look to draft two players from this group of outfielders. You can get a combined 50 home runs and 40 steals from these two outfielders.

Next: Rays Brad Boxberger Out 8 Weeks

How did I do? Did I overrate or underrate any? What are your projections from these players? Let me know in the comments.

Next up on the rankings will be my top-10 outfielders. They should be posted early next week.