Lorenzo Cain: Elite OF Option In 2016?
By Brad Kelly
The MLB is chalked full of great players and even better stories of how they came to stardom. One of the best examples of this is the amazing story behind how Lorenzo Cain as found himself on the verge of superstardom after another season where he has improved and excited fans everywhere.
From a fantasy perspective, Cain took a major step this season and has placed himself on the elite OF tier map heading into 2016. It is amazing to think that Cain’s first love was not baseball and he actually picked it up late in his life, yet here we are witnessing him lead the Royals to back to back World Series appearances.
Cain is clearly one of the best athletes in the entire sport and that raw ability just needed to be harnessed for him to have success in the bigs. Cain started out as a 17th round draft pick in 2004 by Milwaukee, and thanks to the Zach Greinke deal in 2010, the Royals have been reaping the rewards ever since.
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In his first full time role in 2014 Cain posted a decent, .301/5 HR/53 RBI/28 SB line. While he didn’t display much power, he was a nice find for who owners that needed average and speed production. It was kind of odd to see Cain not be able to generate more power in his first full time year, but it seemed as though that once he got fully comfortable at the plate the power would come because he was hitting line drives a decent clip.
Coming into 2015, Cain was no more than an OF 4 or 5, but he largely out produced that rank into an eventual career season. Cain upped his AVG up .to .307, homered 11 more times, and knocked in 21 more runs compared to 2014. This doesn’t even to take into account a repeat 28 SB season and him jumping his Runs up from 55 to 101.
Ultimately leaving him with a, .307/16 HR/72 RBI/28 SB/101 R. line. This ranked him in the top 20 amongst OF, and it has owners wondering if Cain should now be considered an OF 1 or 2. I think at worse next season, Cain is going to be OF 2, thanks in part to a solid Royals lineup, consistent speed offering, and improving peripherals. He has one of the safest floors amongst the top 20, and that can go a long way in the mid rounds when you want to make your you hit on all your picks.
One of the more encouraging signs with Cain has been his constant improvement in nearly all his batting ratios. In 2015, he lowered his K% by over 5%, increased his BB% by nearly 2%, and raised his LD% once again by 2%.
By watching Cain’s swing, we can see that he is a pure line drive hitter. Usually the biggest indicator for a player on the verge of a power breakout is a LD% that hovers near 30%, which he is doing as he got all the way up to 28% in 2015. He also has shown the ability steal basses at an efficient clip, out of 56 attempts over the last two years he has only been thrown out 11 times. I think there is still room for upside there to as we have seen this postseason that Cain can absolutely fly and he should implement it more in his game.
Even if you don’t believe in the .300+ AVG over the last two years, his average will not nosedive to an unsustainable level in 2016 because his batted ball stats paint him as a guy who makes consistent hard contact. I view Cain as an elite option heading into 2016, because I feel comfortable in Cain’s value and floor. He is in a favorable situation as he should always be able to post great counting stats in their lineup, and the peripheral stats do not lie. He also carries that sense that he really has not hit his full potential yet and I think that we will see that sooner than later. Make it a point to own him 2016.