NBA dollars & sense -- Part I: Player monetary value

This is the first piece in a multi-part series of posts regarding player valuation and my new monetary player valuation model. Before diving into creating a large salary model, I wanted to reflect on some of the things one should think about when attempting to determine a player’s monetary value in the NBA.

Just a few weeks ago, the NBA season passed its most hectic part of the year: free agency. For a few days in early July, the airwaves of sports television, the meeting rooms of NBA front offices and the internet feeds of Twitter are filled with a multitude of opinions regarding NBA player value:

“That’s lot of money for a guy who averaged only a few points per game…”

“For the player they are getting here, this deal looks like quite a steal…”

“Definitely a fair contract for a guy who performs each and every night…”

No matter what form of media they choose, NBA fans can’t really avoid this chatter. With so many opinions out there, how can anyone ever be sure of a player’s true market value? After all, just because one GM may be willing to cough up max money for a player doesn’t mean the other 29 GMs in the league are willing to do the same. With this in mind, here are five things to keep in mind when trying to come of with some sort of idea regarding monetary player value:

It’s NOT all about the money

Buckets don’t lie…except when they do

“This game always has always been, and will always be, about getting buckets”

-Bill Russell, Uncle Drew: Episode 2

Although the classic argument of “Player X is better than Player Y, because X scores more points than Y” might be a frustratingly narrow favor, there is a little bit of truth to it in terms of player valuation. Field goals made is consistently a great, if not the best, indicator of player salary. Does that mean field goals are the most important thing when it comes to determining a player’s value? No way.

Before Draymond Green received his new contract last summer, he averaged less than 12 points a game. Why was he subsequently paid a $82 million dollar deal over five years? Because he had other play-making aspects to his game outside of pure scoring that were of value to his team. Oftentimes, field goals will even distort a player’s perceived value. For example, a guy like Jamal Crawford, who performed below replacement level last season (VORP: -0.2), but put up 14 points per game off of the bench, is signed to a $14 million per year deal. Why? Because he gets buckets…but doesn’t do much else.

Is it fair to pay Crawford that much when comparable statistically-valued players are sometimes paid the minimum? In this instance, it doesn’t really matter what’s fair. That’s the Clippers’ perceived value of Crawford. This fact reminds us that when trying to come up for a value for NBA players, remember that for better and for worse, one thing for which NBA GMs will always pay is buckets.

Defense pays, but not as much as offense

The idea that players who excel defensively receive less money than their offensive-minded counterparts was examined in an earlier Nylon Calculus article by Mika Honkasalo. In Mika’s investigation using NBA player RPM, he found that NBA players who excel at defense are paid about 40 percent less than comparable offensively-excelling players. That being said, it isn’t surprising to see that some of the best contracts in the league during recent seasons were paid to guys who were adept defensive players like Draymond Green and Paul Millsap.

Just recently, both of those guys got paid much larger sums of money. Does this mean that GMs are starting to value defense more than previously? Maybe, but in a league where great offense often beats great defense, (and where defense is notoriously hard to assess) offensive skills will likely always be more coveted than defensive skills.

Equal value doesn’t always mean equal price

As stated above, many times, players that are of equal statistical value may not be paid the same salary. This situation is often the case with impressive young players who are in the final few years of their rookie deals. While Damian Lillard may have been putting up All-Star numbers for the last three years, he certainly wasn’t being paid like an All-Star. Lillard’s value was close to that of a max contract player, yet he was being paid like an average role player. A player’s value should reflect that of similarly-producing players, but salary shouldn’t always be used to compare players, as salary is heavily influenced by the CBA and a single owner that pays the player.

Different types of players are valued for different reasons

When trying to determine player value, onlookers often forget that players are not all similar. Players of different positions are often judged differently in terms of value. Certain positions in the league are deeper than others, meaning that a great point guard might be worth much less, comparatively, than a great small forward.

Additionally, bench-warmers, role players, and stars are evaluated differently. At the very least, stars are usually asked to be high-usage players that can score at an above-average clip. Role players may be asked to do just two or three things very well, like shoot and defend, and be at least mediocre at everything else while on the floor. Bench-warmers can be evaluated on a multitude of characteristics that might not even include in-game production like the potential of a younger player or the veteran leadership of an older player. Taking all of this into account, it is very hard to try to evaluate players as one large group. It is much easier and more accurate to try to evaluate players in terms of their specific groups within their play-style or position.

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NBA dollars & sense — Part I: Player monetary value

By Max Schimanski | Sep 1, 2016

It’s NOT all about the money

Buckets don’t lie…except when they do

Defense pays, but not as much as offense

Equal value doesn’t always mean equal price

Different types of players are valued for different reasons