Cubs: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Preview
By Bill Pivetz
AL East: BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR
NL East: ATL, NYM, PHI, MIA, WAS
AL Central: KC, CWS, DET, CLE, MIN
The Cubs had an unforgettable season last year, ending with a World Series win. The team added some more players to make this year just as successful.
The Chicago Cubs 2016 season was nothing short of amazing. It all started with a negative and culminated with a World Series win. There were very few holes on the roster, but the Cubs decided to make some moves in an attempt to repeat.
The Cubs didn’t lose many pieces of the World Series team this offense. The major one was outfielder Dexter Fowler, who signed with division rival St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs signed a former Cardinals and San Diego Padres outfielder to fill his spot.
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The team also lost closer Aroldis Chapman, but we all knew he wasn’t going to re-sign with the Cubs. Considering who the Cubs traded for to replace him, I don’t think anyone should be worried.
The team also signed another relief pitcher from the Boston Red Sox.
The starting rotation will look a little different in the back end. Jason Hammel is still out there in free agency and Chicago signed a veteran to round out the rotation. However, this pitcher isn’t worth drafting. He isn’t going to impress enough fantasy owners.
I have 13 different Cubs players ranked in my top 300. I’m pretty sure you can name at least 10 of them, so this list won’t be a surprise. All five members of their infield, two outfielders, four starters and their new closer are all draftable in standard leagues.
Even with all the numbers the offense put up, Wrigley Field ranked in the bottom third in runs, hits and home runs on ESPN Park Factors list for last season. This does bode well for the pitchers, though.
The Cubs are one of the best teams in the league (Who would have thought we’d be saying that) and will have fantasy stars for years to come.
The Cubs rotation was one of the most consistent throughout the season. All five pitchers made at least 29 starts. They have five complete games and 79 wins among them.
Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks will still be with the team this season. Hammel was swapped out for Brett Anderson.
Lester finished the season as the No. 9 best player on the Player Rater. He had a 2.44 ERA, 1.016 WHIP, and 19-5 record. He also had an 8.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 202.2 innings. Wins are fluky to begin with and the Cubs offense could decline some, but I think we should expect close to the same from Lester.
Arrieta followed his Cy Young season with a good season for most. He ended with a 3.10 ERA, 1.084 WHIP and 18 wins. Looking at his 2015 season, you may say he stunk, and in some cases he did, but Arrieta finished as the No. 32 player. He is my No. 10 pitcher this season.
Lackey allowed a few more runs than the previous two, but he still struck out 180 in 188.1 innings. He will make a good No. 3 pitcher in most leagues. A 3.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP is pretty good for a 37-year-old pitcher.
Hendricks’ numbers may be the biggest surprise. No one saw a 2.13 ERA coming, considering he posted a 3.95 ERA the prior season. I think he’ll finish somewhere in the middle as my No. 18 pitcher.
Anderson isn’t worth drafting in most leagues. He’ll be a streaming option, at best.
After losing Chapman, it looked like Hector Rondon would get his job back. Nope.
The Cubs traded outfielder Jorge Soler for Kansas City Royals closer Wade Davis. It’s rare you replace an elite closer with ANOTHER elite closer.
I wrote about the move here. Davis comes in as my No. 8 closer.
Rondon will go back to the set-up role. He had a 3.53 ERA, 0.980 WHIP and 18 saves last season. He will have value in NL-only or holds leagues.
Koji Uehara signed in December. He will be valuable in deeper leagues or if one of the aforementioned relievers go down with an injury.
Four of the five infielders rank inside the top-15 of their respective positions. The outlier is the shortstop, but let’s start at catcher.
Willson Contreras is my No. 4 catcher. He has power and contact are rare in a catcher. He hit 12 home runs, 35 RBI, and .282 in 76 games. In a full season, you could see 20 homers, 60 RBI and .275.
Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant were going back and forth for the title of Cubs’ best hitter. Rizzo had a 32 HR/109 RBI/.292 line while Bryant had 39 RBI/102 RBI/.292.
They also had the same on-base percentage, .385. Bryant struck out a bit more, 135 to 108.
Rizzo is my No. 2 first baseman and Bryant is my No. 2 third baseman. I wrote that Bryant is the team’s best hitter here, but you can’t go wrong with either.
Ben Zobrist was a solid second baseman with 18 homers, 76 RBI, and .272. If you miss out on the elite options, Zobrist is a good second-half draft pick.
Lastly, Addison Russell hit for power, but not contact. He had 21 home runs, 95 RBI, and a .238 average. There are a few power-hitting shortstops ahead of him, so the low average takes him out of the conversation. However, my early rankings have him as a 13th round pick. That’s not a bad spot for a 20-home run shortstop.
As I teased in the introduction, the Cubs season started off on the wrong foot.
Two games into the season, catcher-turned-left fielder Kyle Schwarber tore his ACL and LCL. He was ruled out for the season but made a miraculous return to the playoffs.
He played in 69 games in 2015 and hit 16 home runs, 43 RBI, and .246. The Cubs moved him to the outfield with the rise of Contreras. We still haven’t seen a full season out of him, but I think this is the year. He is my No. 22 outfielder. Remember, he will not have catcher eligibility in standard leagues.
Jason Heyward did not hit well at all. He hit .230 with seven home runs and 49 RBI. He is my No. 59 outfielder currently but could drop out of the top 60.
The Cubs signed Jon Jay as the new center fielder. With the Padres, he hit .291 with two home runs and 26 RBI. I think his RBI total will rise with a better offense around him.
The Cubs, similar to the Cardinals, have a solid fantasy team. Multiple starters, a closer, and seven of eight hitters. There is a lot of value on this team. Power, contact, some speed, and 15-win pitchers. You can’t go wrong by drafting multiple Cubs players for your team.