FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 12
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s Main winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 288.2 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 75 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.3 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 75 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.3 points.
Sunday’s Main Slate was essentially the same story as Saturday – how many Yankees bats did you stack? Stacking is always a popular debate in the DFS world but if you look at the winning rosters on Sunday you will see 4 Yankee bats in every single line-up built around Aaron Judge and his 59 FanDuel points.
Interestingly though it was a four man Angels stack that was used to pair with the Yankees that really helped set the winning line-up apart as the Angels erupted for 12 runs!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
So let’s start with the obvious here – Stephen Strasburg ($11,400) is the premier play on the board as a massive -240 home favorite against an Atlanta Braves team that is projected to score the fewest runs on the slate. Strasburg has faced Atlanta twice this season, racking up double-digit K’s in each game with 55 and 60 FanDuel points over those outings.
Strasburg seems like the obvious play and in cash games he should be a lock and load but I always recommend reviewing prior slates and Sunday’s slate is a good reminder of where playing the chalk can backfire!
Chris Archer was my top play at home against Oakland as he checked all the boxes (much like Strasburg) and come lock it was clear I was not alone in my thinking as Archer was 46% owned in GPP’s. Now Archer did not pitch poorly, getting 8k’s in 6 innings, but his 30 FD point outing opened the door for any other SP to leapfrog him and with it, jump half the field in tournaments.
So that brings me to today – Strasburg will be the highest owned SP on the board, likely not at a 46% clip but 25%-30% seems like a reasonable estimate so the question is – are there logical pivots that allow us to differentiate from the field?
Jacob deGrom ($9,700): Wait, Brian aren’t you a massive Mets fan and hasn’t deGrom notched THREE FanDuel points combined over his last two starts? Sounds like a homer pick to me.
All those fact are true, but I never let my fandom drive my picks in DFS as I think there is legit merit to playing deGrom in this spot. Your gut reaction is to look at the game logs, see two straight duds and a match-up against the Cubs and run towards the safety of Stephen Strasburg right? Yeah, you and the rest of the field – so let’s get different!
In his last two starts, deGrom has had a BABIP of .471 and .500, clearly unsustainable numbers and with a nearly 50% ground ball rate in those two starts, it seems unlikely that those balls will continue to find their way between fielders.
deGrom has always pitched better in Citi Field, racking up a 33% K rate at home this season and Vegas seems to believe in Jacob tonight, installing the Cubs with the second lowest run total on the board!
The Cubs are an offense that we rarely like to attack but the advanced stats show a team vulnerable to RHP as the rank 24th in team wOBA and are 26th in baseball in hard contact rate (29.7%) this season.
My gut reaction in looking over this slate is that the masses will flock to Strasburg or will look to drop down to the pitchers in the Rockies/Pirates game (Jameson Taillon specifically), so pivoting off Strasburg with deGrom is an interesting tournament tactic as deGrom has a higher K rate and higher swinging strike rate than Strasburg this season – in fact he has the highest marks of any pitcher on this slate!
Also, I am a massive Mets fan and love deGrom and hate the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg but that had nothing to do with this pick (or did it).
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have the highest team total on the board today, closing in on 6 runs, so a full on stack, although popular, remains a great place to build your roster. Jerad Eickhoff takes the hill for Philadelphia in Fenway Park where it will be 80 degrees with a 10 MPH wind blowing straight out to center field!
Eickhoff on the season is giving up 34% hard contact and 1.5 HR/9 to left-handed batters so starting your stack with the key left-handed bats is the preferred core here. Andrew Benintendi ($2,800) is simply WAY too cheap for this match-up and can be paired with fellow left-handed bats, Jackie Bradley Jr. ($3,100) and Mitch Moreland ($3,500) to take advantage of the platoon splits. If you are stacking the Red Sox, Mookie Betts at only $3,700 makes for a great addition as although Eickhoff has limited right-handed bats this season, he did give up 31% hard contact and 1.1 HR/9 to RHB last season!
Minnesota Twins versus Yovani Gallardo: It is not often the Twins will have the second highest team total on the board but a match-up with Yovani Gallardo is enough to make Vegas believe in a big night. There are some weather concerns in Minnesota tonight so it will be important to keep an eye on the weather reports but if we think this game will play, it makes for a great spot to attack with the big bats of Brian Dozier ($3,600) and Miguel Sano ($4,100).
Gallardo this season is giving up 2.8 HR/9 to right-handed batters with a 37% hard contact rate and takes on a Twins team that just beat him up for 5 runs in his last start! In that start, Gallardo gave up a 45% hard contact rate and only had an 8% swinging strike rate so the ball was being put in play often and with force. Dozier and Sano are a great correlation combo that have gone 7 for 19 with a pair of home runs in their careers against Gallardo!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Jacob deGrom ($9,700)
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C: Elias Diaz ($2,200)
1B: Mitch Moreland ($3,500)
2B: Brian Dozier ($3,600)
3B: Miguel Sano ($4,100)
SS: J.J Hardy ($2,200)
OF: Mookie Betts ($3,700)
OF: Jackie Bradley Jr. ($3,100)
OF: Andrew Benintendi ($2,800)
Slate Overview: From a tournament perspective I believe this is the kind of slate where you can pivot off the Strasburg chalk but I would stay with pitchers who have dominant K upside like deGrom or even Yu Darvish as the opportunity cost is simply too high to take a pitcher will lesser K ability. The Red Sox bats will be popular but it is by far my favorite spot to stack and I will have heavy exposure to it while working in the high upside Twins power!
Best if luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!