DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 1

There are ten early games in the DraftKings tournament, including two early games of doubleheaders. We will have to watch the lineups for these double dips to make sure our players are in. What has happened a lot this year is that the vets sit in the early game, and DraftKings doesn’t even have the second games in their tournaments. We have a few aces going this afternoon. Where can we go cheap to pay for pitching? Let’s check some stats to see if these pitchers are really worth the chunk of salary they command.

The late postponement of the Indians-Tigers game obliterated one of my lineups, but it also muddles things for today. There was a double header scheduled anyway. How do they go about the pitching matchups? If Tomlin and Sanchez take the mound in the early game, then my stacks from last night are still in order. They also get the added bonus of having the price adjusted as if they are facing Carrasco, so the Tigers become nice value plays. If they still go with Carrasco and Zimmerman, I wasn’t planning on using either of them anyway. The Tigers are hitting .248 with five homers and 23 runs in 218 at bats against Carrasco with only 48 strikeouts. Stay tuned to see who is starting and adjust your lineup accordingly.

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These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

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Next: DraftKings Early Lineup

P: Chris Sale ($13,500): The Blue Jays are only hitting .183 against Sale in 126 at bats with five homers, but only seven runs. Josh Donaldson has done the bulk of the damage, but he is struggling this year. Sale’s 31 strikeouts are lower than his career numbers, and much lower than what he is doing this year. He has been safe to start against just about anyone. I don’t think this is any different.

P: Zack Wheeler ($7,700): Wheeler has held the Phillies to a horrid .154 average in 26 at bats. The only damage was a solo home run by Odubel Herrera. This looks like a great opportunity for Wheeler to right the ship after two horrendous starts in a row against the Cubs and Dodgers. I don’t trust him so much that I know the Phillies have been awful against right handed pitching this year. He is safer than most in the middle tier in the afternoon slate.

C: Devin Mesoraco ($2,900): Tucker Barnhardt drew the start last night, so Mesoraco should be in today. He has smacked four homers in only 55 at bats at home this year. Eddie Butler provides him with a chance to knock another one out this afternoon since he doesn’t miss many bats.

1B: Justin Bour ($3,800): Bour is 3-8 with a double, a homer, two runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Zach Davies. Davies’ ERA is much higher at home, and this is a park that is super kind to left handed power hitters like Bour. He seems very cheap for this matchup!

2B: Dustin Pedroia ($3,800): Pedroia is 6-14(.429) with three walks, a double, four runs scored, a steal, and a RBI off of Francisco Liriano in his career. Overall, the Red Sox own a good average against Liriano, but they have only homered off of him once. That will likely change after today.

3B: Manny Machado ($3,900): Machado is 10-35(.286) with two walks, four homers, five runs scored, and 11 RBI in his career against Jake Odorizzi. Yes, Machado is struggling this year, but it is reflected in the price. He could end up being a huge bargain tonight.

SS: Tim Beckham ($3,100): Beckham has been able to handle Dylan Bundy for whatever reason. He is 2-4 against Bundy and has walked twice. Both hits are solo homers. Evan Longoria has also clocked two solo homers against Bundy, but his price is too high for me to fit the pitchers I want into my lineup.

OF: Jackie Bradley Jr. ($4,100): All right handed Red Sox hitters are in play against Liriano. Bradley seems to be a fair price against an offense that could finally click tonight. Of course, it feels like I’ve been saying that for most of this month.

OF: Melky Cabrera ($3,600): Melky is 8-20 with two walks, a double, a homer, four runs, and two RBI in his career against Cole Hamels. The White Sox have the best wOBA against left handed pitchers this season. They just can’t handle righties. Hamels is one of the better lefties around, but I still think I’m steering clear of him here just in case.

OF: Adam Jones ($3,600): Jones is 13-37(.351) with a walk, a double, two homers, four runs scored, and four RBI against Odorizzi. The Orioles are struggling lately, but they are hitting .298 in 168 at bats against Odorizzi. They should be able to get something together.

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup 2

P: Jose Berrios ($11,300): The Royals were 10-30 against Berrios during his two starts against them last year. This will be the revenge of Berrios. The only teams to get to him were Houston and Boston in Fenway, and he still only gave up four runs in those games. The Royals likely wont be able to do that. Berrios has high strikeout upside against a Royals offense that can’t quite seem to get it going.

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P: R.A. Dickey ($6,500): Dickey has had a rough go of it this year, but he has compiled 53 DraftKings points over his last two starts, which would be a great value for this price. He has a career 3.33 ERA at the Coliseum in nine appearances (seven starts). He may give up a few gopher balls, but there may not be anyone on base when he does. This looks like a solid matchup for Dickey in a cavernous park.

C: Willson Contreras ($4,000): Contreras got the night off last night, so he should be ready to go for today. He will be facing Jackson Stephens in his major league debut. All Cubs are in play in this one. I am getting my exposure with the cheaper ones since I couldn’t find a lineup that I liked the pitching in when I tried to work Rizzo in.

1B: Eric Thames ($4,100): Tom Koehler is making his return to the majors in one of the worst places he could. Thames has cooled down some, but he is a threat to go deep at any time, especially in this park. I like his chances against Koehler.

2B: Javier Baez ($3,700): The price is definitely right on Baez. We just have to make sure that he in in the lineup before lock time. He and Tommy LaStella are working at third with Kris Bryant nursing a sore ankle. LaStella is a decent punt option if he draws the start over Baez.

3B: Miguel Sano ($4,000): Luke Farrell never had to face anyone like Sano in AAA. Farrell will get the call here today against the Twins, and it could be time for Twins hitters to feast. I don’t totally trust this offense, but Sano is one of the guys I do.

SS: Adam Rosales ($3,200): Rosales has only faced Dickey twice, but he did smack a two run homer off of him. He is cheap enough that I can still pay up for some hitters and still use Berrios.

OF: Adam Duvall ($5,100): Duvall is 2-3 with a homer and two RBI against Eddie Butler, and that was in Wrigley. Great American Ballpark is arguably a better hitter’s park. It should be worth paying up for Duvall here.

OF: Yoenis Cespedes ($4,700): Cespedes is 6-16(.375) with three walks, three homers, five runs scored, and six RBI already against Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson’s ERA is marginally better on the road, but he has been hit everywhere this season. The only reason that I’m not stacking Mets is that Hellickson shut down the Diamondbacks in his last start. There is always a chance that he is turning his season around.

OF: Max Kepler ($3,400): This seems awfully cheap for Kepler against a rookie. I like the bargain potential here.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!