DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 2
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 2
There are ten early games again today in the DraftKings tournament. Most of the stars are in action early, so if you want the biggest action, you will have to be in on the afternoon tournaments!
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The money line yesterday afternoon was at 120.9. My lineup with Sale and Wheeler had 120.8. The other was doomed by Berrios getting rocked by the Royals.
The winning lineup was at 208.65. He used Dickey with Sale, and had huge offensive days from Logan Morrison and Rougned Odor.
These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!
Next: DraftKings Early Lineup
P: Dan Straily ($7,000): The Brewers are a dangerous team, as shown by the four homers that Straily has allowed in 54 at bats. However, they have nothing else against Straily. All of those homers were solo shots, and they struck out ten times. Straily will still rack up the points if he allows a couple of solo shots with double digit strikeouts.
P: Alex Cobb ($8,200): Cobb has not been the most consistent beast of burden to take the hill this year, but with Gausman allowing nearly eight runs per, Cobb would really have to have an awful game to not get the win here. The O’s are hitting .255 against him in 94 at bats with only one homer and seven runs scored, so Cobb’s career stats point to him notching a quality start and a win even if he isn’t striking out as many batters this year.
C: Chris Gimenez ($2,900): The Twins are facing yet another left hander, which means that Gimenez should get the start. He has homered off of much better lefties than Travis Wood, so for this price, it’s worth taking a shot. Even if Gimenez doesn’t start, I will take Jason Castro instead. I definitely want exposure to this game!
1B: Carlos Santana ($3,800): I don’t trust Justin Verlander today. He has allowed 11 runs in as many innings against Cleveland this year, including a nine run shellacking on Opening Day. I am even considering benching Verlander in my money league with the week on the line. But I am definitely going to play the other side of this in DFS, so even if I lose, I win. Santana is the place to start this stack. He is 16-72(.222) with nine walks, three doubles, eight homers, 11 runs scored, and 13 RBI in his career against Verlander. He has even stolen a base!
2B: Javier Baez ($3,500): It could be a high scoring one at Great American Launching Pad today with Adleman and Arrieta on the mound. Baez is a great place for cheap exposure, and he is 3-4 with a double, a homer, and two RBI in his career against Adleman. Sign me up!
3B: Jose Ramirez ($4,900): Ramirez is 9-23(.391) with four walks, three doubles, a homer, five runs scored, a steal, and four RBI in his career against Verlander. Ramirez picked up right where he left off in June with three hits, including a homer, in yesterday’s double header.
SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,300): Lindor is also 9-23 against Verlander, but he has had a little less success than Ramirez. Lindor has three walks, a double, a triple, a homer, seven runs scored, and seven RBI though, so it’s not like he wont be worth this cheap price tag!
OF: Corey Dickerson ($4,700): Dickerson is 0-5 in his career against Kevin Gausman, but Gausman has the second worst ERA among qualifying pitchers in the majors this year. A Rays stack is in order if you can afford it, and it starts with Dickerson. Just be aware that it is a chalk play.
OF: Lonnie Chisenhall ($4,200): Chisenhall is 14-43(.326) with two walks, three doubles, a triple, two homers, five runs scored, and eight RBI off Verlander. There is a chance that Verlander pitches well today, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it. Betting against it seems like a safer proposition.
OF: Mookie Betts ($5,500): Mookie is 2-5 with a walk and a RBI against the struggling Joe Biagini this year. Biagini’s June was so bad that he could find himself in the bullpen very soon, but the Red Sox have burned me enough lately that I am not putting together a full stack. I do want some exposure though.
Next: DraftKings Early Lineup 2
P: Nick Pivetta ($6,700): I don’t like any of the top pitching options today. The Rangers are below average against lefties, but Jose Quintana has a 4.99 ERA at home, and Texas still has the power to knock him around. Severino against Fiers against the two best offenses in the American League? For that price, I’ll pass. Shark’s career numbers against Pittsburgh aren’t that great, and he hasn’t pitched all that well on the road. So I am comfortable with paying down at pitcher and stacking this lineup with mashers. So I will take Pivetta against Rafael Montero here with a great chance for a win.
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P: Trevor Williams ($6,300): Due to all the red flags at the top, I am going cheap again. Samardzija’s road splits and the awful Giants offense in general has me optimistic about this. Williams has also turned in back to back quality starts against the Brewers and Rays. They aren’t the 1932 Yankees, but they are still better offenses than the one he will face today.
C: Gary Sanchez ($4,900): I went back and forth with which and how much exposure I wanted to either side in this game. Luis Severino has been brilliant on the road, but the Astros are the best offense in the league. However, I decided to take the Yankees side. Mike Fiers was dominant in June, but the Yankees blasted Lance McCullers Jr, the defacto ace, in the series opener. Since I paid down at pitching I can take the best offensive players out there. Sanchez is easily the best at a relatively weak position.
1B: Joey Votto ($5,200): Votto is 5-16 with two walks, a double, two homers, three runs scored, and seven RBI in his career against Jake Arrieta. Arrieta also has a 5.04 road ERA this year, and a 5.10 ERA in five career starts at Great American Ballpark. You want some Reds in your lineup today.
2B: Whit Merrifield ($3,700): Merrifield picked up three hits yesterday in the twin bill, so it appears as though his solid June was not a fluke. He is 1-2 with a steal and a run scored in his career against Santiago. If the Royals do well, their leadoff hitter will likely be why.
3B: Miguel Sano ($4,400): Travis Wood is being summoned from the bullpen, where he has a 6.28 ERA, to start this game. Stacking Twins looks to be a great idea, especially right handed ones. Sano homered in both games of the doubleheader yesterday, and has obliterated the Royals this season. He has a ridiculous 23 RBI against them in just 11 games!
SS: Eduardo Escobar ($3,500): Escobar has had a nice week with all of the left handed pitchers that he has faced. Now comes another one with a bloated ERA in the bullpen. Escobar seems way too cheap against a weak bullpen arm. If I trusted Brian Dozier at all, he would be in here too!
OF: Aaron Judge ($5,600): Judge has only faced Fiers three times. His only hit was a solo home run. Don’t worry about splits here. He leads the majors in home runs and in home runs off of right handed pitching.
OF: Adam Duvall ($5,000): Duvall is just 1-9 in his career against Arrieta, but he has three homers and ten RBI in his last six games. Judging by how poor Arrieta has been for most of this year, especially on the road, I like Duvall’s chances.
OF: Andrew McCutchen ($4,600): McCutchen is 15-37(.405) with five walks, five doubles, a triple, five runs scored, four steals, and two RBI in his career against Jeff Samardzija. Shark has an unsightly 4.99 road ERA this year, and the current Buccos are hitting .274 off of him. I would stay away from Samardzija here, even though the strikeouts are enticing. The Pirates had a solid June at the plate, so they aren’t as big a pushover as they were in May.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!