Fantasy Baseball: DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 8

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 07: Austin Hedges #18 of the San Diego Padres hits the game winning sacrifice fly ball in the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on July 7, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 8

There is one less game in the afternoon DraftKings tournament than the main one, but most of the aces are on the mound in the afternoon. That is a stark contrast to yesterday, when the “early” slate was full of risks and it didn’t get done until after the turbo tournaments did because of a rain delay. Are any or all of the aces worth using? Here’s a hint: I touched on this yesterday. Which way should we go with our lineups? Let’s check out some stats!

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The money line yesterday afternoon was at 120.35 DraftKings points, which is pretty high considering the pitchers we had to choose from. My pitching picks were the right ones, but I missed on Kris Bryant, which was a must to cash this afternoon.

The winning lineup was at 170.35 DraftKings points. He missed on Eddie Butler, but the saved cash allowed him to pay up for Austin Hedges, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant to win the whole thing!

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup

TORONTO, ON – MAY 15: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves hits a three-run home run in the sixth inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on May 15, 2017 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

P: Luis Severino ($11,500): There isn’t a lot to go on here since both the pitcher and the team he is facing are young. The Brewers are better against righties than lefties, and Severino struggled against the Angels in his last home start. However, his home ERA is still a respectable 3.89, and he is striking out more than a batter per inning at home. The Brewers will strike out enough to keep Severino in at least the mid teens for DraftKings points even if he struggles. I’m not sure the same is true for Strasburg. Don’t worry, I’ll explain later!

P: Mike Fiers ($7,500): This lineup is full of risk anyway, so why not double down? Fiers was bombarded for 20 home runs in his first nine starts. 20! He has not allowed one in his last seven starts. The Blue Jays at Rogers Centre are still a risk, but it certainly seems as though Fiers has figured something out. His career numbers against the Jays are about as pedestrian as they come (.278, two homers, seven runs, 13 strikeouts in 54 at bats), but for this price, it’s worth seeing if his current success is sustainable.

C: Welington Castillo ($2,900): Since Caleb Joseph got his chance to tee off on the Twins last night, Castillo should get his today. Adalberto Mejia has had some success in the majors thus far, but very little of it has come at home. Orioles righties are in play here since Mejia has a 5.66 ERA in seven home starts. Expect another slugfest from Target Field!

1B: Matt Adams ($3,400): Before you ask, I am well aware who is starting for the Nationals, but did you know that the Braves are hitting .290 with ten homers and 31 RBI in only 183 at bats against him? He dominated the Braves at SunTrust Park, but surrendered six runs in five innings to them at home on June 12th, and that was with Freeman out! There is no way I trust Strasburg or his price today. As for Adams, he is 6-17(.353) with a walk, two doubles, two homers, three runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Strasburg. He looks way too cheap today!

2B: Daniel Murphy ($4,800): Murphy is 8-25(.320) with seven walks, four doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Teheran. Teheran does have a nice 2.88 road ERA, but he has allowed nine runs in just 11 innings to the Nationals this year. He also has a 4.41 ERA in eight career starts at Nationals Park. A stack still looks safe here.

3B: Freddie Freeman ($3,700): Freeman is way too cheap. He has beaten Stephen Strasburg like a rented mule in his career. Freeman is 14-38(.368) with six walks, three doubles, four homers, ten runs scored, and a whopping 13 RBI against Strasburg. There are few hitters I trust more this afternoon.

SS: Stephen Drew ($2,800): Drew should continue to start with Trea Turner out. I sure hope he does today since he is 5-6 with a walk, a double, a homer, three runs scored, and two RBI against Teheran. Recently Teheran has had issues with all hitters, not just lefties. Stacking against him will likely win us some money!

OF: Bryce Harper ($5,500): If you think what Freeman has done to Strasburg is bad, Harper has been even more unkind to Teheran. Harper is 16-36(.444) with five walks, three doubles, seven homers, eight runs scored, and an amazing 17 RBI off of Teheran already. Whatever you need to do to afford him, do it!

OF: Brian Goodwin ($3,800): Goodwin is relatively new to the sport of Teheran bashing, but he fit right in. Goodwin smacked a two run homer in his only game against Teheran.

OF: Aaron Altherr ($4,100): I’m playing the splits here too. I know that Jhoulys Chacin is facing the Phillies, but the fact is that he has a 9.08 ERA in nine road starts. It doesn’t matter who he faces on the road, he gets lit up. Altherr seems to be the most consistent Phillies hitter, so I am getting my exposure here!

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup 2

NEW YORK, NY – JULY 07: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees connect on a solo home run in the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Yankee Stadium on July 7, 2017 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

P: Aaron Nola ($9,900): I touched on Chacin’s road woes on the last page, which should give us all the info we need to roll Nola out there. However, I sense you want more. We all know that the Padres are one of the worst offenses in the league. Home or road, against lefties or righties, they are near the bottom. Here is something that you may not know. Nola does have a mediocre 3.73 ERA on the year, but it stands at 1.27 over his last three starts. Expect the hot streak to continue.

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P: Alex Cobb ($7,100): Jake Odorizzi got knocked around by Boston last night, and he is a better pitcher, so what gives? Well, there are not a lot of good mid range options this afternoon. Cobb does have a solid 3.15 home ERA this year, and he was rolling before getting blasted by the Orioles his last time out. I’m not paying that for Chacin, I don’t trust Stroman against Houston, and I don’t trust using Fiers twice. That leaves Adam Wainwright or Cobb. Believe it or not, Cobb seems less volatile.

C: Chris Gimenez ($3,100): Gimenez has four homers in his last 28 at bats against left handed pitching. We can all agree that Wade Miley is average at best. This looks like a great spot for Gimenez once again.

1B: Logan Morrison ($4,600): Morrison is 10-27(.370) with three doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Rick Porcello. His Cy Young form of 2016 isn’t coming back anytime soon. Porcello is back to his career numbers, which are not pretty against the Rays. A Rays stack may not be a bad idea here.

2B: Brad Miller ($3,600): Maybe a stint on the DL is just what Miller needed. He was hitting .194 on the season before hitting the shelf on June 6th. He picked up two hits in his return to the lineup last night with a RBI, and that was against a left handed starter! Now he gets to face Porcello, who he has pounded over the years. Miller is 7-26(.269) with two walks, two doubles, four homers, six runs scored, and eight RBI against Porcello. That price may end up being cheap!

3B: Miguel Sano ($4,600): Sano destroys left handed pitching. He has only faced Wade Miley twice. He hit a two run homer off of him. Sano is hitting .300 over the last ten games, and has homered twice and driven in nine in that span. It could be an ugly day for Miley.

SS: Eduardo Escobar ($4,200): Escobar is another guy that has feasted off of southpaws. He is hitting .329 with five homers and 13 RBI in just 73 at bats against left handed pitching. I’m paying up for him today against Miley, who has allowed at least four runs in each of his last six starts.

OF: Aaron Judge ($5,600): Judge homered again at home last night. What a surprise! He now has 21 homers at Yankee Stadium this year, and is facing a lefthanded rookie who started the year in the bullpen. Brent Suter was solid against Balimore in his first start, but the Yankees in Yankee Stadium are an entirely different animal. Especially with Judge destroying everything that moves there.

OF: Jay Bruce ($3,700): Bruce is also a guy that has hit Wainwright well. He is 12-41(.293) with five walks, two doubles, two homers, eight runs scored, and ten RBI against Wainwright in his career. Busch Stadium isn’t quite as nice to left handed power as Citi Field is, but most of the ones Bruce hits aren’t cheapies anyway. If he gets a hold of one, it isn’t landing for a while.

OF: Robbie Grossman ($3,600): Grossman torched left handers last year, but hasn’t quite hit them as hard this year. However, for this price, which is cheaper than Byron Buxton I might add, it is worth seeing if he can get to Miley.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!