2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: 12-team head-to-head mock draft

Now that you’ve brushed up on fantasy basketball strategy and have our overall Top 200 big board handy, want to see how a draft might play out?

The fine folks at Hoop Ball recently invited me to take part in a mock draft for a 12-team, head-to-head, nine-category league with other industry experts. Below, you’ll find the results, along with my rationale for each pick.

In the first round, I’m always going with the best player available. Nikola Jokic is the 10th-ranked player on my big board, and since the top nine all had been selected by the time my pick rolled around, this was an easy choice. Jokic won’t give me the huge number of blocks that you’d like from a traditional center, but he’ll more than make up for it with his absurdly good passing.

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By starting with Jokic, I’m leaning toward targeting assists heavily early—making a point guard my likely selection in Round 2—before I focus on shoring up blocks in the middle rounds.

Rudy Gobert (No. 11) is higher than Chris Paul (No. 13) on my big board, but roster construction came into account here. While this format did call for us to start two centers, I wanted to snag an elite point guard to pair alongside Jokic and lock up the assists category early. Any concerns about how CP3 and James Harden would split touches amongst themselves in Houston are quickly fading after the preseason, as both of them averaged north of 10 assists per 36 minutes.

In head coach Mike D’Antoni’s uptempo system, I’m safely penciling Paul in for a nightly 20-10 threat, and he appears to be en route to a career-high number of triples, too. Between him and Jokic, I feel great about having a huge advantage in assists early on.

Klay Thompson (No. 30) is one spot higher on my big board than Bradley Beal (No. 31), but Beal’s scoring upside made me take him over Thompson. Since neither Paul nor Jokic are a nightly threat to go off for 25-plus points, I wanted Beal’s infusion of scoring, even though he may wind up hitting fewer threes than Thompson and shooting less efficiently. Beal erupted for a career-high 23.1 points per game this past season, and as long as he avoids the stress reactions that plagued him throughout the first few years of his career, he’ll be in good shape to top that mark again.

Through three rounds, I now feel good about my standing in points, assists, 3-pointers, steals and turnovers. I’m still looking to bolster my rebounding and blocks in the middle rounds, and the edge I’m developing in free-throw percentage may allow me to take a later gamble on a big man who struggles from the charity stripe such as Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan.

Since I’m the conductor of the “Khris Middleton Is Going to Be An All-Star” train, I couldn’t pass him up here. He was the 30th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues in 2015-16, and with Jabari Parker set to miss much of the upcoming season, he’ll be the clear Robin to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Batman. Middleton brings 20-5-5 upside to the table along with upward of two steals and two triples per night, making him an elite way to round out my squad’s strengths. From here, I can turn my attention to rebounds and blocks in the next round.

Note: This draft took place before Batum’s elbow injury. He should not go anywhere near the top 50 now.

Even after factoring in his dismal 48.2 percent conversion rate from the charity stripe, DeAndre Jordan finished last season as the 49th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. Though he lost an elite passer in Chris Paul this offseason, the newly acquired Milos Teodosic will keep Lob City humming in L.A. even with Paul now in Houston. Jordan won’t give you much more than points, blocks, rebounds and field-goal percentage, but he’s led the league in the shooting efficiency for five straight seasons. I’ll swallow his sub-.500 free-throw clip if he’s chipping in upward of 15 rebounds and two blocks while shooting north of 70 percent from the field.

Robert Covington shot 39.8 percent overall last season and still finished as the 36th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. With Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz now feeding him the rock and Joel Embiid commanding consistent double-teams down low, Lord Covington is likely to set a new career-high mark in shooting efficiency. Even if RoCo does stay below 40 percent, having Jordan on my team will help cover that weakness, and Covington’s elite output in 3-pointers and steals will further bolster my advantages in those categories.

When in doubt, double down on 3s and steals. Like Covington, Trevor Ariza isn’t hyper-efficient on offense, but he’s good for north of two treys and upward of two steals per game. Having both Paul and James Harden feeding him the rock should prevent any offensive lulls when he’s playing alongside mostly reserves, making him that much more attractive to my squad as I seek to put a chokehold on 3s and steals each week. Ariza isn’t a huge scoring threat, but my early-round picks will cover that hole in his game.

Since I felt hopeful about my squad’s chances of making the (hypothetical) playoffs in this league, that enabled me to take a home run swing on Isaiah Thomas in Round 8. Yes, he’s likely out until January as he works his way back from a hip injury, but the guy churned out late first-round value in 12-team leagues last season with Boston. With him in a contract year, he has $200 million reasons to show that same scoring upside once he makes his eventual debut. I may take a few early-season Ls because IT4 is occupying an otherwise usable roster space, but he’d be the ultimate wild card heading into the fantasy playoffs.

Since DeAndre Jordan is likely to sink my chances of winning the free-throw percentage category most weeks, why not effectively punt FT% by grabbing Dwight Howard in Round 9? Disregarding his horrendous mark from the charity stripe, Howard otherwise put up top-25 value last season with the Atlanta Hawks, and Charlotte Hornets head coach Steve Clifford seems dedicated to relying upon Howard even more than Atlanta did. Between Jordan and Howard, I now feel much better about my chances of remaining competitive each week in blocks, rebounds and field-goal percentage.

This mock draft confirmed my suspicion about the rest of the fantasy community being sour on Rodney Hood this year, but I harbor no such ill feelings toward him. He put up top-100 value on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues back in 2015-16, and that was with Gordon Hayward in Utah’s lineup. I’m expecting him to take a major step forward offensively with Hayward now in Boston, even if it comes at the expense of his shooting efficiency. In Round 10, his upside far outweighs his risk of injury or being a bust.

At this point in drafts, you’re looking for high-upside fliers or steady contributors. Dwyane Wade falls in the latter category. He isn’t going to churn out the same per-game numbers he did with the Chicago Bulls last season, but somewhere around 15 points, four rebounds, three assists and a steal per night seems within reason. Since Jose Calderon is washed up, Wade should serve as Cleveland’s primary backup ball handler, which further bolsters his early-season outlook. Considering Wade has an expert consensus ranking of 105.2, getting him two full rounds later constitutes a steal in my books.

Prior to Lou Williams’ arrival at the trade deadline last season, Eric Gordon was churning out top-85 value on a per-game basis as Houston’s sixth man. With Williams now a Clipper and Houston’s backcourt depth somewhat depleted after the trade for Paul, Gordon should get back to his flamethrowing ways this year. He knocked down 3.5 triples on 9.2 attempts (!) per game prior to the All-Star break last season, so he’ll give me a huge boost in both 3-pointers and points, even if his shooting efficiency leaves something to be desired.

Handcuffing rarely makes sense in fantasy basketball, but Cleveland’s point guard spot may be the exception to that rule this season. Until Thomas returns, Derrick Rose should have an ironclad grip on the starting gig, and he averaged a whopping 24.3 points, 7.7 assists and 5.0 rebounds per 36 minutes across his four preseason appearances. The injury risk remains enormous for Rose, and he’s likely to become waiver-wire fodder once Thomas returns in January, but he should be a cheap source of early-season value until then.

Theoretically, the Atlanta Hawks should embrace a youth movement after trading away Howard and letting Paul Millsap walk as a free agent, but their decision to sign Ersan Ilyasova and Dewayne Dedmon suggests they intend to feign competitiveness for a few months first. Ilyasova won’t provide much more than points and 3-pointers, but he did average 10.4 points on 41.2 percent shooting, 5.8rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.2 triples in 24.3 minutes across his 26 appearances in an Atlanta uniform last season. Don’t expect him to singlehandedly win your squad a championship, but he’ll be a steady contributor available in the later rounds.

Next: 30 worst NBA playoff teams of all time

Other draft prep

Top 200 overall

Sleepers to target

Busts to avoid

Breakout players

Top 10 PGs

Top 10 SGs

Top 10 SFs

Top 10 PFs

Top 10 Cs

All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues.