2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: Top 10 power forwards
Whereas small forwards will populate Rounds 4 through 6 of fantasy basketball drafts this fall, power forwards should be prevalent in Rounds 2 through 4.
Beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis — both of whom should be selected in the first round — as many as six other PFs may go off the board over the ensuing three rounds. If you don’t get one of those top eight, however, there’s a steep drop-off to the next tier of power forwards, many of whom will be mid-round targets rather than fifth- or sixth-rounders.
Which power forwards should you be targeting toward the top of your fantasy drafts, and where should you be taking them? Assuming a nine-category head-to-head format, here’s how to break down the cream of the crop at the 4.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Since Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Karl-Anthony Towns each added superstar sidekicks this summer, Giannis Antetokounmpo finds himself on the shortlist of players who deserve consideration at No. 1 overall. The Greek Freak emerged as an all-around fantasy dynamo during his first season as the Milwaukee Bucks’ full-time ball-handler, setting new career highs in points (22.9), field-goal percentage (52.1 percent), rebounds (8.8), assists (5.4), blocks (1.9), steals (1.6) and 3-pointers (0.6) to finish as the fifth-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. Though Antetokounmpo isn’t a prolific 3-point shooter, that’s his lone quibble for fantasy purposes. He’s the top-ranked player on my big board heading into the year and is a rock-solid top-three pick regardless of format.
2. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
When Anthony Davis stays healthy, he’s all but guaranteed to be an elite fantasy value. He finished second overall on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues last year (trailing only Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant) after pouring in 28.0 points on 50.5 percent shooting, 11.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 2.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.5 triples in 36.1 minutes. Most encouragingly, he played a career-high 75 games after having never topped the 70-game threshold in any of his four previous seasons. Davis was still the fourth-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-cat after DeMarcus Cousins’ arrival at the trade deadline, and the two should theoretically make life easier for one another by drawing immense defensive attention. Davis’ injury history makes him this year’s scariest first-round pick, but there’s no denying his top-three upside.
3. Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
After making increasingly promising offensive strides each of his first four seasons in the NBA, Draymond Green took a major step back upon Kevin Durant’s arrival in Golden State. A year after averaging 14.0 points on 49.0 percent shooting, Green plunged to just 10.2 points on 41.8 percent shooting, both of which were three-year lows for him. He atoned for that offensive drop-off with 7.9 rebounds, 7.0 assists, a league-high 2.0 steals, 1.4 blocks and 1.1 triples in 32.5 minutes, helping him finish as the 21st-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. If his field-goal percentage jumps back up — for what it’s worth, he shot 44.7 percent in the playoffs — he’ll flirt with top-12 value. Regardless, he’ll be a safe late second- or early third-round pick.
4. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
With Carmelo Anthony now in Oklahoma City, Kristaps Porzingis will assume the mantle as the face of the New York Knicks franchise. With that responsibility will come added defensive attention, as the Knicks no longer have a wing player who can regularly command double-teams. The departures of Anthony and Derrick Rose open up more than 34 shots per game from last year’s squad, though, so Porzingis should compensate for any decrease in shooting efficiency with an increase in overall offensive volume. Somewhere north of 20 points, eight rebounds, two 3-pointers and two blocks per game should be the baseline expectation for the Zinger, making him an excellent mid-third-round target.
5. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
Blake Griffin has long been overrated in fantasy circles because of his paltry contributions in defensive categories, but Chris Paul’s departure from Los Angeles could help him unlock greater two-way upside. More of the Clippers’ offense should roll through him as a de facto point forward, which could help him eclipse his previous career-high mark in assists (5.3) while chipping in somewhere around 25 points per game. Griffin won’t ever be an elite source of steals or blocks, but any additional output on that end would greatly boost his fantasy value as well. Treat him as a mid-fourth-rounder with tremendous upside, although he also has an alarmingly low floor given his lengthy injury history.
6. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue recently told ESPN.com’s Zach Lowe that Kevin Love “is going to have the best year that he’s had here,” adding, “We’re going to play through him more. We’re going to get those elbow touches again.” The California native took a backseat to Kyrie Irving and LeBron James over the past few years, but he had his best season yet with the Cavaliers in 2016-17, chipping in 19.0 points on 42.7 percent shooting, 11.1 rebounds and 2.4 triples per game. With Irving gone and Isaiah Thomas on the mend, the Cavs will need Love’s floor-spacing ability more than ever. That makes him a high-upside fourth-round target despite his lack of steals and blocks.
7. Paul Millsap, Denver Nuggets
Is there a more perfect fit alongside Nikola Jokic than Paul Millsap? The 32-year-old shot a career-low 44.2 percent overall during his final season with the Atlanta Hawks, but he still finished as the 45th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues due to his 18.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.1 triples and 0.9 blocks. With Jokic dishing him the ball and Jamal Murray and Gary Harris helping space the floor, Millsap should nudge his field-goal percentage back toward his career rate of 49.3 percent, which may give him top-25 upside. Take him in the mid-fourth round and don’t think twice.
8. Serge Ibaka, Toronto Raptors
Serge Ibaka is the last of the early-round power forwards, and it’s fair to question whether he belongs in the same tier as Griffin, Love and Millsap. Upon his arrival in Toronto at the trade deadline, Ibaka averaged 14.2 points on 45.9 percent shooting, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 triples and 1.4 blocks across his final 23 games, finishing as the 74th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues over that span. After having a full offseason, training camp and preseason to get settled, Ibaka should be more well-acclimated to the Raptors’ system this year, but his fantasy upside is tied to whether he can boost his field-goal percentage and shot-blocking numbers closer to his career rates in both categories. Grab him in the fifth round and hope his decline in efficiency with the Raptors isn’t a sign of things to come.
9. LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
For as much flak as LaMarcus Aldridge catches—both in real life and from the fantasy community—he remains a mid-round fixture with top-50 upside. Last season, Aldridge averaged the fewest points (17.3) and rebounds (7.3) he had since his rookie campaign, but he still managed to finish as the 53rd-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. The newly acquired Rudy Gay may cut into Aldridge’s minutes at the 4, but with Dewayne Dedmon having left in free agency this summer, Aldridge and Pau Gasol could wind up splitting minutes at the 5. Aldridge doesn’t tout the upside of the top eight options at the position, but he’s still a high-floor sixth-round pick.
10. Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
Is this the year Aaron Gordon finally gets to play his natural position? The Orlando Magic resisted the temptation to splurge on another veteran power forward this offseason, seemingly opening the door for a breakout year from Gordon. The Arizona product set new career highs in points (12.7), assists (1.9) and 3-pointers (1.0) last season, but he finished as the 133rd-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues because he struggled at the 3 alongside Ibaka for much of the year. After Orlando sent Ibaka to Toronto at the trade deadline, Gordon flirted with top-50 value over the final two months of the season. He’s a sixth- or seventh-round gamble with the potential to pay off enormously.
Next: Every NBA team's greatest shooter of all time
Honorable mentions
- Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
- Tobias Harris, Detroit Pistons
- James Johnson, Miami Heat
- Marvin Williams, Charlotte Hornets
- Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns
Other positional rankings
All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues.