Fantasy Baseball 2018: Outfield Rankings
By Bill Pivetz
Outfield is the deepest of the hitting positions. If you plan properly, you can draft more than one elite outfielder early.
The outfield position is unlike any other. Except for pitchers, it’s the only position you need to draft at least three, sometimes five based on your league settings. Plus, you need one or two bench options, pushing the number to five to seven outfielders per team. If you play in a 10-team league, that’s 50-70 total players.
There is a lot of talent in this position. If you want an outfielder to give you power, look at a guy like Khris Davis. If you want speed, Billy Hamilton is your guy. Then there are outfielders that can contribute to all of the categories and those players are in the top 10.
You can still form a formidable team if you skip out on one of those players. You can stack up on contact at your other positions as you wait to draft your first outfielder. Like I said, you can find power and contact guys after pick 100.
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I removed all players I previously talked about with outfield eligibility. If they are not on this list, I feel they are better suited for their other position. Here are five guys I feel are worth a mention before getting into the rankings.
Max Kepler (MIN) – The third-year outfielder made great improvements last season. Kepler increased his counting stats while raising his ratio stats. In 147 games, he hit 19 home runs, 69 RBI, 67 runs and a .243/.312/.425. He also snuck in six steals as well. While the average isn’t great, the counting stats will help as a late-round pick.
Aaron Hicks (NYY) – With the injuries the Yankees had in their outfield, Hicks became a household name. However, with the team healthy and gaining a huge piece, he might not play as often. Brad Kelly questioned if we should believe in Hicks’ success last season.
David Dahl (COL) – After hitting .315 in 63 games in 2016, Dahl was ready to make the next jump in his career. Unfortunately, injuries happened and he did not get a single at-bat last season. The Rockies have a crowded outfield but if Dahl can separate himself from the pack, he’ll be in line for a starting job and sleeper status for 2018.
Randal Grichuk (TOR) – The Blue Jays traded for Grichuk in January. He has 20-home run potential and in a hitter-friendly division, Grichuk can improve on that. Let’s hope the batting average improves as well. Here are my thoughts on the move.
Matt Kemp (LAD) – Kemp was traded to the Dodgers in mid-December. With their abundance of outfielders, he might not even be on the team by the end of the season. If so, he may be worth stashing in deeper leagues.
Here are my top 60 outfielders for the 2018 season.
Kole Calhoun (LAA) – Calhoun had a down season last year. In 155 games, he hit 19 home runs, 71 RBI and scored 77 runs with a .244 average. He is a career .261 hitter, so the decline in average hurt his value. With the improvements the Angels made, he should bounce back and hit 20-plus home runs and get back to his .260-hitting ways.
Delino Deshields (TEX)
Michael Brantley (CLE)
Aaron Altherr (PHI) – I named Altherr as a sleeper outfielder for 2018. You can read about that here.
Stephen Piscotty (OAK) – The Cardinals traded Piscotty to Oakland. I think Oakland is a sneaky team to hit well this season and Piscotty will be at the center of that. He’ll be a serviceable OF5 in most leagues.
Mitch Haniger (SEA) – Haniger was a player fantasy owners added after the first month. He hit .342 with four home runs and 16 RBI at the end of April. He finished with 16 homers, 47 RBI and a .282 average in 96 games. He’ll have another 60 games to play this season. He should be able to reach 20 home runs with 60 RBI and a .285 average, especially in this Mariners lineup.
Carlos Gonzalez (FA)
Bradley Zimmer (CLE)
Josh Reddick (HOU) – It’s always good to have guys on your team who do enough to warrant a roster spot. Reddick is one of those guys. He hits for a good enough average, .314 last season, with double-digit power and some speed. Reddick is slated to hit fifth after the young four. He’ll have a shot to reach 100 RBI while maintaining a .280 average.
Corey Dickerson (PIT)
David Peralta (ARI) – Peralta had a good season last year, hitting .293 with 14 homers and 57 RBI. He also added eight steals to his stat line. The Diamondbacks lineup is good, giving Peralta chances to drive in runs. The negative is that Chase Field will have a humidor. I wrote about what that means for fantasy here. Peralta may barely reach 10 home runs this season.
Jackie Bradley (BOS)
Shin-soo Choo (TEX) – Choo is one of the more consistent outfielders in the league. He has hit at least 20 home runs in three of his last five seasons. He stole 12 bases, his highest since 2013. Most of Choo’s success will come from the health and performance of his teammates. He will need Adrian Beltre and Joey Gallo to hit 30 home runs each and Choo will score 100 runs with his own 20 homers.
Dexter Fowler (STL)
Avisail Garcia (CWS) – Kelly asked if Garcia is being overvalued heading into drafts. He had an outstanding season with 18 home runs, 80 RBI, 75 runs and a .330 batting average. With his free-swinging tendencies and the White Sox poor lineup, you may want to look elsewhere.
Mark Trumbo (BAL) – My colleague Gavin Tramps wrote about Trumbo and how he’s falling out of fantasy relevancy. Just one season after hitting 47 home runs and 108 RBI, he hit 23 and 65. After the Orioles signed Colby Rasmus to a minor-league deal, I think he earns a starting job and Trumbo becomes the DH. Trumbo should be able to avoid fatigue.
Trey Mancini (BAL)
Ronald Acuna (ATL)
Kyle Schwarber (CHC) – Schwarber’s MLB career has been interesting, to say the least. He enters this season looking a little leaner, which could hurt his power but if he added muscle then it all works out. Kelly wrote about the perplexing fantasy value Schwarber has entering this season.
Manuel Margot (SD)
Michael Conforto (NYM) – Conforto underwent shoulder surgery in September. He recently began hitting off of a tee. New York Post beat writer Mike Puma said the goal is for him to return on May 1 but that could change based on progress. If you have a spot, stash him on your DL spot until he’s healthy.
Steven Souza (ARI)
Jay Bruce (NYM)
Odubel Herrera (PHI)
Kevin Kiermaier (TB) – Kiermaier is one of a couple of fantasy-relevant players left in Tampa Bay. He’ll hit third between Matt Duffy and Carlos Gomez, not the best combination. He will still hit 15-plus home runs and steal 15 bases. The downside is that he may not score a lot of runs.
Brett Gardner (NYY)
Eddie Rosario (MIN)
Adam Duvall (CIN) – Duvall is one of those outfielders that will give you a lot of power but tank your batting average in the process. If you can get those high-contact hitters, then Duvall is a nice compliment to your team. He can hit 30 home runs and 100 RBI in a hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Just be wary of a .240 average.
Nomar Mazara (TEX)
Chris Taylor (LAD) – Taylor is one of those “super-utility” players. He played at second base, shortstop, third base and the outfield last season. He will carry over second base and outfield eligibility this season. Also, he’ll qualify at shortstop based on your league’s settings. In 140 games, he hit 21 home runs, 72 RBI and .288 with 17 steals. Taylor is going to leadoff as the starting center fielder. There will be a lot of runs scored from Taylor.
Ian Desmond (COL)
Gregory Polanco (PIT)
Yasiel Puig (LAD) – Puig had his best power-hitting season last year. He played in a career-high 152 games with 28 home runs, 74 RBI, 72 runs scored and a .263 average. Puig also stole 15 bases. The Dodgers didn’t add any starting players this offseason, their two young stars are better than who they could have signed. Puig is slotted to hit fifth behind Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger, the Dodgers top two power hitters. The attitude issues are long gone. Draft Puig with confidence.
Ender Inciarte (ATL)
Billy Hamilton (CIN)
Adam Eaton (WAS) – Tramps told us not to forget about Adam Eaton. He missed all of last season but will be 100 percent this season. With a better team around him, the Nationals leadoff hitter will be a solid OF2 option.
Adam Jones (BAL)
Domingo Santana (MIL) – The Brewers have a crowded outfield after their two acquisitions. With Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, Santana may be out of a job. I think Santana gets traded for a starting pitcher. Though, the Brewers may use Braun at first base, giving Santana some playing time. It will hard to keep his 30 home runs and 15 steals out of the lineup.
Nelson Cruz (SEA)
Lorenzo Cain (MIL) – The first of two new Brewers outfielders, Cain will hit second in the lineup. I think the team runs a lot this season. He will have protection behind him so his average and counting stats will either match or exceed his 2017 numbers. Read more of the move here.
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)
Ryan Braun (MIL)
Andrew McCutchen (SF) – McCutchen was wasting his career in Pittsburgh, despite a couple of playoff appearances. Now, he joins a Giants team rebuilding but ready to make a run at another World Series. AT&T Park is a pitcher’s park, so we may see a decline in some power. Kelly wrote about the impact here.
Byron Buxton (MIN)
AJ Pollock (ARI)
Tommy Pham (PHI) – Tramps said Pham is close to Mike Trout but not there yet. Read how close the two actually are here.
Marcell Ozuna (STL) – Ozuna was one of the best hitters in Miami. He posted 37 home runs and 124 RBI with a .312 batting average. The Cardinals lineup may not be as good as the Marlins lineup from last year but that doesn’t mean Ozuna won’t perform. Kelly wrote about the fantasy impact of the move here.
Khris Davis (OAK) – Davis is one of the most overlooked outfielders in drafts. He hits less than .250 but the power he provides offsets that greatly. Davis has back-to-back 40-home run seasons with at least 102 RBI. Like I said with Piscotty, the A’s will surprise some. Their lineup is good and Davis is hitting in the heart of it. Kelly wrote more about the Davis disrespect here.
Christian Yelich (MIL) – Yelich is the second of two new outfielders for the Brewers. He leaves a decent team with favorable pitching in Miami for a great offense and even more favorable pitching in Milwaukee.
Andrew Benintendi (BOS) – The young Boston outfielder posted great numbers in his first full season. He hit 20 home runs, 90 RBI and .271 in 151 games. At just 23 years old, Benintendi has a lot more to give fantasy owners.
Justin Upton (LAA) – After joining the Angels in September, Upton decided to re-sign with the team early this offseason. Looking at what the front office did after to improve the team, it looks like he made the right decision. The additions of Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart and Shohei Ohtani along with Mike Trout and Albert Pujols give Upton a lot of lineup protection this season. He will provide you with power and contact mixed in with a little speed as your OF1.
Starling Marte (PIT) – Marte missed 80 games while serving a suspension for PEDs. Once he returned, though, it was like he never missed a game. He hit .282 with five home runs, 24 RBI, 41 runs and 19 steals in 64 games. I’m not expecting another suspension this season, so he should be eligible for the full slate of games. The loss of Andrew McCutchen hurts but the rest of the lineup isn’t that bad. Hitting in the middle of the order should provide Marte with plenty of opportunities to be productive.
Aaron Judge (NYY) – Judge put on a show in the first half last season, hitting 30 home runs with a .329 average. He declined in the second half, hitting just .228 with 22 home runs, 48 RBI and 53 runs. That is why I questioned if there will be another power decline in 2018. Despite the lineup protection, Judge struck out a lot last season and will likely do it again this year. The league will catch up to him and figure out where to pitch him.
JD Martinez (BOS) – The Red Sox made a huge splash as they try to compete with the Yankees in the AL East by signing Martinez. Not going back to Arizona with the humidor will lead to a better season. Kelly wrote about the fantasy impact here.
George Springer (HOU) – In just 140 games, Springer had a career year. He hit 34 home runs, 85 RBI, 112 runs and a .283 average. Hem drastically decreased his strikeouts from 178 in 2016 to just 111 last year. Springer his hitting atop this dangerous Astros lineup, giving him plenty of opportunities to get on base and score a lot of runs.
I wrote about Giancarlo Stanton twice this offseason. Once in early October, projecting his 2018 season. The second was when he was traded to the New York Yankees. The two articles are nothing alike, for obvious reasons.
What more can be said about Stanton entering this season?
After hitting 59 home runs last season, Stanton joins a team that can give him a lot more lineup protection with Judge, Gary Sanchez, a healthy Greg Bird and Didi Gregorius. Yankee Stadium is also a little more friendly to hitters than Marlins Park.
Stanton will split time as an outfielder and DH as Aaron Boone tries to juggle all of his outfielders. I think not playing the outfield as much can keep Stanton off the DL this season. Then again, a player can also hurt themselves running the bases.
Steamer is the lowest on Stanton’s projections, having him play just 135 games. Depth Charts says he’ll play in 150. I think it’ll be somewhere in between. He’ll reach 50 home runs with 115 RBI and a .275 average. The average drops a couple of points, but you draft Stanton for power and he’ll provide plenty of that.
Charlie Blackmon is a perennial first-round pick in fantasy leagues. Kelly said it’s time to make him a top-five pick. I took it a step further and asked if Blackmon is the second overall pick. Looking at his numbers and the players ranked around him, it’s definitely not a bad idea.
While he’s definitely declined his steals, 43 in 2015 to just 14 last season, he’s increased his power. Blackmon posted a 37 HR/104 RBI/.331/.399/.601 line. He struck out 135 times, so if you’re in a points league that penalizes strikeouts, you may want to avoid drafting a few of these batters.
Blackmon saw a 6.3 percent increase in his groundball rate while his line drive rate dropped 5.5 percent. Somehow he was able to hit for a higher average and OBP this season.
Blackmon hits atop a Rockies lineup with a lot of power. He should continue to get on base close to 40 percent of the time. He’ll hit close to another 30 home runs while stealing 15-plus bases. The NL West doesn’t have the best pitching rotations top to bottom. Blackmon is a good enough hitter to take advantage of those matchups.
Looking ahead, I don’t think he’s worth the second overall pick but is more than worthy of a first-round selection.
Bryce Harper played in just 111 games last season. He 42 games towards the end of the season. He was still able to hit more home runs last year than in 2016, 29 to 24, with 87 RBI, 95 runs scored and a .319 batting average.
The Nationals will be getting Adam Eaton back as well as Trea Turner for a full season. Those two bats ahead of him and Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy behind him will provide Harper with a lot of lineup protection.
Harper has been on and off with his steals throughout his career. He stole 21 bases in 2016 but just four last season. It could be attributed to the injury but he stole just six in 2015. With Turner hitting second, I think the Nationals will run a lot, so expect 10 steals from Harper.
Harper hits the ball on the ground a lot, 42.2 career groundball rate. He was able to increase his HR/FB rate while posting a lower fly ball rate, 24.0 and 37.6 percent respectively.
Looking at the two batters ahead of him, Bryce doesn’t provide enough to be ranked ahead of them. The debate between Harper and Blackmon could go either way. He will be ranked no higher than No. 3. With 35-home run, .310 potential, that’s not a bad spot for Harper.
Mookie Betts declined in most of his stats last season. He played in five fewer games and hit for 50 fewer points with seven fewer home runs and 11 fewer RBIs.
Still, Betts was able to steal for another 26 bases while posting a .344 on-base percentage. New manager Alex Cora said Betts will hit leadoff for the Red Sox. He’ll have Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, newly signed OF/DH JD Martinez hitting behind him.
I think Betts will score another 105 runs with 25 home runs, 92 RBI and a .298 batting average. It’s hard to drive in runs from the top of the order, considering all of his first at-bats will have bases empty.
Betts will steal another 20-plus bases. He is one of two five-category outfielders that will be worth taking at the end of the first round. You want a player who can contribute to as many categories as possible and Betts can do that.
Like there was any other choice. Mike Trout was another big name that missed significant time last season. He played in just 114 games but still posted Trout-like numbers.
Trout hit .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI and 92 runs. He also continues to steal as he racked up another 22 stolen bases. Like Betts, he’s a five-category player. His potential is just a bit higher than Betts’, which is why he’s my No. 1 outfielder.
I’ve said it a few times already but the Angels’ front office did a good job adding support for Trout. He’s been the only contributor on the team for years. Now, he has a top third baseman, a solid second baseman, another top-10 outfielder and a Japanese two-way player.
Trout, barring any other injuries, will post something close to 40 HR/110 RBI/22 SB/.304. You cannot pass on those numbers if you have the first overall pick.
The outfielders listed all have value for different reasons. And, based on where they fall in your draft, could be worth the investment. Should you draft Ryan Braun or Shin-soo Choo? That all depends on what the rest of your roster looks like. They both are worth owning, but it depends on the price.
No one can compare to the top-five players but the rest of them could be mixed and matched base on need. There is a lot of talent and will be fun to see who finishes where in October.