DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down – Houston Open

DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down – Houston Open

Welcome to the Getting Up and Down DFS Golf article! My name is Josh Thomas and you can find me on twitter at @dfsupnorth and in this weekly article we will be looking at a few golfers trending up and a few trending down to help you get up and down in Daily Fantasy Golf! The focus of this article is for DFS players who are only playing a few lineups each week. Information will be relevant for those who play 150 unique lineups, but the main goal is to help the casual DFS golf player see some green screens.

WGC Match Play Recap: 

We will get to this week’s Houston Open in a minute but first let’s recap what was a crazy week at the WGC Match Play! This was the first year any of the sites have offered a DFS for this event and it took some serious strategy to come up with a winning lineup this week With all of the unknowns and variance that came into play with this event, my suggestion last week was that you cut down on the amount you play and save your money for this week and the Master’s. That turned out to be very sage advice as it was extremely difficult to have a winning lineup!

After Friday’s round when the field was cut from 64 to 16 here’s the amount of lineups here’s what the field looked like in the 5$ 100K 150 Multi Entry (The biggest tournament they offered this week with over 100,000 entries.)

.02% had 6/6 golfers alive!!! That is insane. There was more lineups with 0 golfers alive than 6, 5 and 4 combined! 

I wish I would have taken my own advice and played 1-2 lineups, but instead played 6. While I still played less than 50% of what I normally do, it was a tough week. I cashed a lineup with 1 guy making it through to the knockout stages, fortunately that guy was eventual winner Bubba Watson. Bubba played fantastic this week, his length left him with short irons into a lot of holes and he putted beautifully, seemingly draining everything. Bubba benefitted from Kevin Kisner putting the lights out in his semi-final match against Alexander Noren who played wonderfully all week. Kis fell apart in the championship match, unable to hit a fairway and Bubba made quick work of him 7 and 6.

Overall, I felt that this week was a lot of fun and is going to be way more fun next year now that we have some ideas about how it will play out. If we look at how the guys I recommended for GPP’s ended up we got smoked by Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm not making it out of their groups, I was heavy on both of last year’s finalist, and neither really played well enough to have a chance. Paul Casey had to go to extra holes after getting beat by a subpar Charley Hoffman in the morning and lost. Louis Oosthuizen and Tyrell Hatton made it out of their groups and gave us a little bit of a run, and Patrick Cantlay just missed making it out which would have helped most of my lineups cash.

Overall this was a fun week, but now its on to the Houston Open and lets take a look at the Course!

DFS Golf: Course Preview and Tournament History

Course Preview 

This week the PGA Tour heads to Houston, for the Houston Open, Formerly the Shell Houston Open. The Golf Club of Houston which hosts this event is a par 72 that plays over 7400 yards on most days. There are ten Par 4’s, four Par 5’s and four Par 3’s. The Par 4’s average around 450 yards, while the Par 5’s are all extremely long, all four over 550 yards, and two over 600. There were only 10 Eagles last year, with 8 coming on hole #8. Hole #8 played as by far the easiest hole on the course last year and may benefit guys who start on the back as they finish their rounds with a few easy holes as opposed to Hole #18 which could be a killer for guys trying to make the cut, the 488 yard par 4 played as the toughest hole last year.

We go back to bent grass greens here after the players have played Bermuda for the past few weeks. Bent grass specialists, in particular Texas guys who have good course history in this state will be in play this week as we often see the same players topping the leaderboard at tournaments with bent grass surfaces.

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We’re in Texas and that means the players need to be ready for the wind. The weather right now looks to be beautiful all weekend with high’s in the 80s and only 10-15 mph of wind, but it’s Monday and this could change drastically over the next few days. Most rounds here over the past 5 years have been played with at least moderate winds, and players who played in last weeks Match Play may be at an advantage having already had to play a week with some pretty significant winds on Friday/Saturday.

Tournament History: 

This tournament is one I refer to as the Russell Henley Open. He has finishes of 1st, T5, 4th, and T7 the last four years here. For some reason he just loves this tournament and it fits his eye. He’s always been a good Bent Grass putter and it’s shown here., he gained 12.5 strokes on the field putting here last year. The winning score for this tournament has averaged -16 over the past 7 years, so you need to make some birdies if you want to contend. When looking at players for Cash Games you need to focus on Bogey Avoidance as well because while this course is gettable, many players can ruin a good Thursday with a bad Friday. Jordan Spieth last year shot 69, 77 to miss the cut.

As this is the week before the Master’s we don’t always have a loaded field here but there are guys that like to use this as a tune up, Phil Mickelson has played here the last few years, as well as his buddy Rickie Fowler though Fowler has seen more success. Justin Rose has added this tournament to his card this year and is looking to tune up his game before another run at a Green Jacket. Henrik Stenson is playing here and has some pretty typical Stenson course history, Cut and 2nd the last two times out.

Long approaches are king here, with approaches over 200 yards being king when we look at total shots from previous years. Being able to score on the long par 4’s and have good approaches into the massively long par 5’s will be key to shooting a low score. Strokes gained around the green doesn’t appear to be a big factor, but approach will be.

When creating my custom stat model on FantasyNational.com here’s what I will be factoring in:

SG: Approach

SG: Tee to Green

Birdie or Better %

Proximity from 200+ yards.

P4 Scoring: 450-500

SG: Putting

I know that putting has a huge variance. Just look at Kisner from Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon at the Match play. He made everything he looked at in the morning, and couldn’t touch the hole in the afternoon. That being said, the winners here gain tons of strokes on the greens against the field, so I think it’s important to consider.

Now lets look at who the model spits out as players to consider this week and who I have trending up and down for the Houston Open.

DFS Golf: Trending Up – Houston Open

In this section we will look the Top 10 from my custom stat model and then I will breakdown  couple of golfers that you should target in your lineups this week. I’ll differentiate between golfers that I think are Cash or GPP Viable or Both. All statistics that I use are from FantasyNational.com where I build a custom model each week based on statistics I feel are going to be essential to help you win in DFS.

This week, I’m going to be playing 90% cash games. The Master’s is NEXT WEEK! (be on the lookout for Master’s content from me later this week). We want to build up our bankroll for the big prize pools next week! That being said, my focus this week will be on mostly Cash Game options.

Here’s the Top 10 in my Custom Stat Model

For reference I used these statistics in the model – SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, Birdie or Better %, Proximity from 200+ yards, P4 Scoring: 450-500, SG: Putting

I also accounted for Bent Grass Greens, Course Length, Windy Conditions, and Soft Greens.

1. Rickie Fowler
2. Danny Lee
3. Justin Rose
4. Ernie Els
5. Jason Dufner
6. Alex Cejka
7. Jordan Spieth
8. Russell Henley
9. Kevin Tway
10. Kevin Streelman
11. Henrik Stenson

Looking at my top ten, there’s some value to be had if we trust the model. Ernie Els has been playing well the last few weeks and at courses with a similar demand, MC here last year when he was really struggling with his game, but made it in the 4 years previously. He appears to have found something the last few weeks and at $6,800 on DK may be worth a flyer. Some of our pre-tournament favorites Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley,  and Henrik Stenson all make the list as well, but with high prices you might have to pick one and build around them.

Trending Up:

Jason Dufner: DK $8300/FD $10,500 

Dufner is coming off a great week at the WGC Match play where he went to a play off with Louis Oosthuizen for a spot in the knockout rounds. A bad lie led to a tricky putt and Louis drilled his to move on. Duff daddy beat Jason Day and James Hahn both during the week and his game appears to be rounding back into form. Dufner was T12 here last year in his only appearance and didn’t putt very well, only gaining a little over a stroke on the field. He is 5th in my model, and if you add in Greens in Regulation Gained, he climbs to fourth as he is second in the field in that stat. I love Dufner this week as a lock in cash games, and has the ability to win so he’s worth a shot in GPP’s as well. At his price, he gives you the ability to make a variety of lineups, and he is in the ‘dead zone’ of pricing so anyone making a stars and scrubs lineup won’t be able to fit him in.

Also, I love that he has no hat sponsor this year and is just wearing whatever he wants. At Valspar he found one in Rickie Fowler’s bedroom, and last week he wore a hat he bought at a truck stop on the way to the course. You gotta pull for a guy like that.

Daniel Berger: DK $9400/FD $11000

Berger comes to Houston after an awful week at the WGC Match Play. Match Play just doesn’t necessarily fit his game as in his career he only has 1 win and went 0-3-0 again last week. He will be coming to a track he has had a tremendous amount of success in the past and will be looking to right the ship a bit. Berger’s played her three times with finishes of 5, T5, and 25th. He projects out in our model at 20th. Last year’s top 5 finish comes off a stretch where he missed 2 cuts in his 3 previous events and one was a no cut event (WGC Mexico) so this seems to be a course where he gets his groove back. Berger might be highly owned, but again we’re looking for cash game plays this week and I’m not going to be going much higher than his price point so I can load up on guys in the middle. He’s got great course history, fits the model, and has win potential. Lock him in.

Chez Reavie: DK $7300/FD $9400

I always look at price disparities on the DK/FD to try to find value and Reavie is one that stuck out right away. He’s priced over a $1000 below Shubhankar Sharma and Byeong Hun An on DK and is within 100 of each on FD. Thats a huge differential. Chez represents massive value on DK and should be locked into everyone’s cash game lineups. Even if he is chalk, you can eat it here. He comes out at 35th in my model but is top 20 in proximity from 200+ which is my favorite stat here this week. Lets remember, Reavie beat Jon Rahm last week in match play, the guys got game, and should not be priced this low. His MC here last year will probably keep ownership down but in the three years prior he finished T7, T37, T31. If Chez makes the cut, he pays off the salary and I don’t see him having any problem doing that this week. Jump on while his price is here.

DFS Golf: Trending Down – Houston Open

I’m going to be honest, I had an extremely difficult time coming up with players to fade this week. The way the pricing is, I think you could make an argument for a lot of guys this week, that being said you have to make a stand somewhere and I’m going to rely on my model to make that decision for me.

Phil Mickelson: DK $10200/FD $12400 

Phil is the 2nd highest priced player on FanDuel and the 5th highest on Draftkings. He ranks out at 47th in my model, sandwiched between Shawn Stefani and Aaron Baddeley. Phil went 2-1-0 at the Match Play last week which was a pretty respectable showing, but he had arguably the easiest group to contend in and lost to Charles Howell III. He didn’t play poorly by any stretch of the imagination, but CH3 isn’t lighting the world on fire either. Some key areas where Phil tends to struggle is his approach game from 200+. He’s just too wild, and puts himself in poor positions where he has to scramble to make par. He has good course history here outside of last year where he finished 55th, including a win. Phil should be highly owned and will most likely top 20%.  If you feel good about Phil, by all means go ahead and play him, he could win here, but you have to make a stand somewhere and at his price point, I’ll be off of Phil this week, especially on FanDuel.

Byeong Hun An: DK $8700/FD $9500 

Benny An is overpriced this week. He’s a world-class player when he’s on and he has been playing well the last few weeks outside of a missed cut at the Valspar (who didn’t miss the cut there). That being said, I don’t think he’s the 15th best player in this field, and then you add in he’s never played here? I’m off of him here. Vegas has him at 40-1 and I wouldn’t touch that with your money. This is a course where you need to get hot with the putter to win, and at An’s price you need a top 15. Could he do that? Sure, but anything less than an above average putting performance you are going to be looking at him hoping he makes the cut. Rates out 50th in my model which weighs him down greatly due to his poor putting and long iron game. Over his last five tournaments he’s gained a half a stroke on the greens putting, but again thats on Bermuda. His average over his last 48 tournaments is -1.4. An will need to be blazing with the putter this week to contend, and I won’t be counting on that.

Shubhankar Sharma: DK $8400/FD $9500 

This is strictly a gut play. He’s everyone’s favorite player in DFS right now, had a strong showing at both the WGC Mexico and the Match Play and we don’t have really any statistical data on him unless you do a deep dive onto the European Tour’s site. He is currently 69th on the Euro tour in GIR and 60th in Driving Accuracy which are the two closest things they track to what we are looking for. He doesn’t bomb the ball by any means, and doesn’t gain a ton of strokes putting. Most of the Euro tour is played on Bermuda grass and this bent grass will be a big change for him as he hasn’t teed it up in the US on Bent yet. Watch him prove me wrong, and become the next international sensation, but I’ll be waiting that out and moving towards safer options this week.

DFS Golf: Core GPP and Cash Plays – Houston Open

In this section I’ll share my core plays for GPP and Cash Lineups this week on both FanDuel and DraftKings. These are guys that I’ll be playing in a majority of my lineups and would suggest you try to find ways to fit them into yours! I’m playing mostly cash this week so I’ll do Cash Core Plays and then include some GPP Punts that fit in my model and might be worth taking a chance in for your lineups! I’ll update this list on Wednesday as ownership trends start to take shape and news comes in, so be sure to check in on my twitter @dfsupnorth for any changes or WD’s.

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DFS Golf – GPP Punt Plays:

Ernie Els: DK $6800/FD $7100 (A good fit in my model and at almost minimum price on both sites, why not?)

Chris Stroud: DK $7100/FD $7700 Houston boy who has been playing better. Good Bent Grass putter and will want to do well in his hometown.

Seungsu Han: DK $7700 /FD $7700 Lock and load on FD and worth a look on DK. T5 at opposite event last week and has been great on Euro Tour. May be highly owned, but has the talent to do well. Similar to Sharma but much cheaper.

Keith Mitchell: DK $7200/FD $8000

Bomber who should fit here. T2 last week in Punta Cana so has good. Made every cut besides Honda this year.

Kevin Tway: DK $7300/FD $7600

Another guy who played well last week, makes a ton of birdies and bombs it. Played well on the Texas swing last year and putts much better on Bent Grass.

DFS Golf – Cash Core Plays 

Jason Dufner: DK $8300/FD $10,500

Daniel Berger: DK $9400/FD $11000

Chez Reavie: DK $7300/FD $9400

Matt Kuchar: DK $9100/FD $11200

Steve Stricker: DK $8800/FD $9600

Jhonattan Vegas: DK $7300/FD $8700 (Too cheap, Great Course History)

Jaime Lovemark: DK $7300/ FD $9800 (DK price doesn’t match his odds, 60-1 to win. Wouldn’t play him on FD but is a huge value on DK)

DFS Golf Slate Thoughts: 

I’m a big proponent of the casual player playing mostly cash lineups in DFS Golf, specifically single entry double ups. Your odds of cashing are obviously much better in a double up than a GPP. My general rule of thumb is for every entry into a GPP you play an entry of a similar amount in a double up. This is a great cash management strategy. If you do this you can take some shots in a GPP and play some long shots which is what you need to do to have a crack at the top prize. Conservative lineups in Cash (double ups) and go a little crazy in a GPP but make sure you have at least one or two guys who you think can win the whole thing because you need the winner to win big.

DFS Golf – GPP Contests to Target: 

FanDuel:

$7 entry $3500 PGA Chipper Single Entry

$3 entry $4K PGA Putter Single Entry

DraftKings:

$12 entry $35K PGA Albatross Single Entry

$4 entry $300k Fore 20 Entry Max

Notice anything? Stay away from the 150 entry contests, you are at a huge disadvantage throwing a single dart into that pool. If you can stick to single entry contests you have a much better shot of seeing green screens come Sunday evening! You can play any sort of double up or even head to heads. I like Single entries, but sometimes the variance in the multi entry double ups can play to your advantage.

Next: DFS MLB: Top five hitters visiting Chase Field

Good luck this week and make sure to follow me @dfsupnorth for any late thoughts on weather, WD’s, or ownership trends. Be on the lookout for Master’s Content later this week!