Broncos are playoffs or bust with Teddy Bridgewater under center

With Denver turning to the veteran Teddy Bridgewater over third-year man Drew Lock, head coach Vic Fangio is going all in for 2021.

It’s now or never for Vic Fangio and the Denver Broncos.

Denver hasn’t made the postseason since winning Super Bowl 50, and the Broncos decided to give up on the Drew Lock experience in favor of veteran Teddy Bridgewater this offseason.

In the short term, Bridgewater gives Denver a better chance to win games now, something Fangio needs to do to keep his job with new general manager George Paton in town. Fangio doesn’t deserve all the blame for his 12-20 record through two seasons in Denver. The quarterback play has been inconsistent and has featured the likes of Lock, Joe Flacco, Jeff Driskel, Brandon Allem, Brett Rypien and even Kendall Hinton. If Fangio plans to last for more than three years, he needs at least one winning season in 2021.

With Bridgewater under center, Fangio and the Broncos are opting for consistency rather than the boom-or-bust option that Lock has been throughout his young career. But even with the veteran now under center, the Broncos are still taking a bit of a gamble.

Bridgewater looked great in New Orleans while filling in for an injured Drew Brees, but he was 4-11 as the Carolina Panthers’ starter last season, throwing for 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. When you compare his 2020 numbers to Lock’s, there’s not that much of an upgrade on the surface.

Bridgewater 2020 stats: 69.1 completion percentage, 3,733 yards, 15 TDs, 11 INTs, 64.2 QBR

Lock 2020 stats: 57.3 completion percentage, 2,933 yards, 16 TDs, 15 INTs, 48.8 QBR

Vic Fangio is trusting the safety net that Teddy Bridgewater provides

The key difference is Lock’s lows are far lower than Bridgewater’s floor, which can take Denver out of games much more quickly. Fangio can’t afford costly mistakes this season with his job in jeopardy, and the AFC West is simply too tough of a division for the Broncos to give opportunities away because Lock doesn’t have it that Sunday.

For bettors, the Bridgewater move is exactly what you want, as he’s an NFL-best 36-14 against the spread as a starter in his career. But is he enough to make Denver a playoff team in 2021?

The oddsmakers at WynnBET aren’t sold, and that’s bad news for Denver. The Broncos have just +155 odds to make the playoffs, and are expected to finish in third in the AFC West with +600 odds to win the division.

Even though they are favored to go over 8.5 wins this season (-135 odds), that isn’t enough for Denver to deem this season a success. That may seem like a reach for a team that was 5-11 in 2020, but the Broncos made multiple win-now moves this offseason, and a playoff berth is the only way to justify Paton’s actions.

Will the trade for Bridgewater justify George Paton’s decision to not draft a quarterback?

Bridgewater is the first gamble, even though the trade to bring him from Carolina to Denver cost the Broncos nothing more than a late-round draft pick.

However, now that he’s the starter and on a restructured one-year deal, Bridgewater has to work out for Denver this year to more than just a winning season. The Broncos are likely going to be too good to find themselves in the top five in the draft next offseason, especially with Von Miller and Courtland Sutton returning and the additions of Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain II on defense.

That means the Broncos won’t have a great chance to draft a franchise quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft, and they already passed on Justin Fields and Mac Jones in favor of cornerback Patrick Surtain II in this year’s draft.

That was the second gamble Paton made.

It’s a move that already looks questionable and will remain that way unless the team somehow lands Aaron Rodgers next offseason, a long shot at best.

By opting for Bridgewater over Lock, the Broncos are essentially punting the third year of Lock’s rookie deal, and while he hasn’t looked like a franchise quarterback, it’s possible that we never get to know if he could have improved in his second season in Pat Shurmur’s offense.

If Bridgewater doesn’t pan out, Denver can let him walk at the end of the year, but the cost of him struggling is much greater than just a lost 2021 season. Fields and Jones aren’t guaranteed to pan out, just like Lock isn’t, but they offered much more upside than rolling with Bridgewater in 2021 and then possibly extending him after this season.

Just ask the Panthers how it panned out when they signed Bridgewater long term last offseason. They practically gave him away in favor of an unproven Sam Darnold, who ironically, has been on a similar career trajectory to Lock, although he was a higher draft pick.

Do the Broncos have enough to contend in the AFC West?

Paton wanted to give Fangio and Lock a fair shake, but by keeping both around he was sacrificing the other. Either Fangio was going to roll with Lock and risk another losing season, or Lock was going to get benched by Fangio in hopes that Bridgewater would be a big enough upgrade to get Denver into a wild card spot.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers have Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for years to come, and the Broncos are wasting a solid young core of skill players, and an above average defense, with questionable quarterbacks year in and year out.

Bridgewater has been tabbed as the stopper to the madness, but anything short of a playoff berth in 2021 would leave the Broncos in limbo for next season, and potentially for years to come.

– Peter Dewey, BetSided