3 reasons the Cubs must keep Nico Hoerner no matter what happens with Alex Bregman

The biggest remaining story in MLB free agency is where exactly Alex Bregman will wind up. The Chicago Cubs are in the mix, and adding Bregman is undoubtedly a way to take a big leap forward in the National League pecking order. My worry, however, is what corresponding move they make because of how worried team chairman Tom Ricketts is about exceeding the luxury tax.

Gold Glove winner Nico Hoerner could be just that corresponding move, at least if the rumor mill is to be believed. But losing Hoerner would be following a step forward with a significant step back. Let's look at three reasons why the Cubs must keep Hoerner at all costs, regardless of the Bregman sweepstakes.

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1. If Hoerner is moved and Bregman declines, then what?

When the Cubs sign a player, they are not only thinking about right now but down the road as well. Teams reluctant to sign the All-Star third baseman are looking at potential decline and dead money that could come down the road, hence why Chicago has been standing firm at four years with an AAV of around $30 million, including multiple opt-outs.

Don't get me wrong: Bregman is still a fantastic player to have on your team. Entering his age-31 season, however, it's understandable not to want to get caught paying well above market value if he does regress. On the other hand, Hoerner is just 27 and entering the prime of his career while only being owed $23.5 million over the next two seasons.

In 2024, Bregman's typically elite on-base percentage dipped to just .315. It's been four years since he last hit .270. Again, he's a fantastic option for the near future, but the potential problems arise from there. If you move on from Hoerner and Bregman declines, it's a massive loss.

2. Keeping Hoerner could avoid creating another hole next winter

If Bregman does sign on and has a strong 2025, he's gone anyway next winter, and then you have neither player. It isn't so much that the Cubs should necessarily avoid Bregman; it's just that Hoerner also brings a lot of value to the Cubs. He still has two years guaranteed, whereas if Bregman has a good year, he will likely test the market again. Moving Hoerner this year and a potential Bregman opt-out next winter leaves the Cubs with the same problem they have right now.

Either way, it doesn't feel like the Cubs will enjoy elite production from Bregman for multiple years. A good 2025 signals an opt-out, and a poor year indicates the start of a bad contract that far exceeds market value. If the Cubs land Bregman, they would be wise to let top prospect Matt Shaw continue to round out his game. Chicago has nothing but time for his development. Keeping Hoerner and Bregman for 2025 gives the team one of the most potent lineups in the NL, unless you think Shaw will top Hoerner in WAR this coming season.

3. Is Bregman that much more valuable?

What if I told you that Bregman and Hoerner had almost identical WARs over the last two seasons? Bregman (according to Fangraphs) has been worth 8.6, while Hoerner has accumulated 8.5. They both do many things at an elite level, with most of Bregman's value coming in the power department regarding home runs and RBIs.

Hoerner, however, carries a career .338 OBP and has stolen 74 bases over the last two years. He also plays Gold Glove defense and hits for a high average, giving him the framework of a 4.0 WAR player every year that he stays healthy. In short, for more money, it makes little sense to add a player and then trade one with equal value to your team.

Don't get me wrong, adding Bregman is not something the Cubs should avoid; my argument is that Hoerner being the corresponding move potentially takes away just as many wins as the team is adding in the first place. The Cubs should stop worrying about the luxury tax as if making the playoffs wouldn't bring in extremely high profit margins from merchandise, playoff tickets, and TV ratings alone. If the Cubs want a sure-fire 90-win team, Bregman and Hoerner in the mix is the way to go.