Deadline day: Will the Toronto Blue Jays sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on time?

After a whole offseason of speculation, we've finally arrived at D-Day: The Toronto Blue Jays have less than 24 hours left until Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reports for spring training, meaning there's less than 24 hours left for the team to reach an agreement on a long-term contract extension with its star first baseman before his self-imposed deadline. Fail to get a deal done, and the question of Vladdy's free agency will hang over the team all season long — and potentially haunt the franchise for years to come.

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins has made no secret that keeping Guerrero Jr. in Toronto has been his No. 1 priority for weeks now. And it seems to be on Vladdy's mind as well, as his Instagram account has been spent the last week counting down the days until he arrives in Florida. That countdown reached its end on Monday morning, with a photo of a gym and a simple stopwatch emoji.

The stakes could not be higher. Blue Jays have insisted throughout this process that, even if they can't come to an agreement with Guerrero Jr., they're committed to playing out the 2025 season with him on the roster. But it seems hard to believe that Toronto would really risk losing him for nothing but a draft pick next winter, especially with the questions that will bring to the clubhouse on a daily basis. It doesn't feel like much of an exaggeration to say that the future of the franchise is on the line, as the path back to contention will be a long one if Vladdy walks.

But don't panic just yet, Jays fans. While this hasn't been the smoothest negotiation, and each passing hour brings us that much closer to the worst-case scenario, there's still reason to believe that a deal will get done.

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Blue Jays running out of time for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension, but all hope isn't lost

The fact that we haven't gotten a resolution with less than a day to go may not mean what you think it means at first blush. This is simply how baseball works these days, with each side intent on winning at the margins until the last possible moment — as Twins president Derek Falvey told Sportsnet over the weekend, "deadlines drive decisions".

The Blue Jays are considering committing themselves to a potentially record contract, while Guerrero Jr. is considering whether to sign away his free agency and potentially the rest of his prime. That's a lot on the line, and it makes sense that both player and team would spend as long as possible haggling over the most minute details. The reality is that there's no real motivation until the clock is ticking, and the Jays and Vladdy have to contemplate living without each other.

That could be all the motivation that Atkins needs to forgo his typically all-too-rational approach to free agency and go the extra mile to keep his homegrown star around. And while Guerrero Jr. certainly holds most of the leverage here, he doesn't hold all of it: It's well-documented at this point that the 26-year-old loves it in Toronto, and wants to remain with the only professional organization he's ever known. Forgoing a payday for one more year also brings a host of variables into the question, most notably the potential for injury.

In the end, a reunion still makes the most sense for everybody involved. Whether either the team or Guerrero Jr. will get in the way of that remains to be seen, but at this point time might be the best motivator.