We are only a matter of weeks away from NFL training camps opening league-wide in mid-July. It'll officially mark the conclusion of the 2025 offseason, in addition to the beginning of the rampant spread of fantasy football fever.
There's still plenty of uncertainty and things to be sorted out before the upcoming campaign. However, the time to start brushing up on some of our favorite sleepers is upon us. Or, within the scope of this writing, busts to avoid.
Given the current state of affairs, these 13 players are already becoming easy fades at their FantasyPros consensus point-per-reception (PPR) draft rankings. That's not to say they're bad and can't help your fantasy team; this is relative to value, situation and who's being taken around them. But of course, with roughly two months until the regular-season opener between the Dallas Cowboys and defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, things can change.
13 players who are being overvalued in fantasy football for 2025
1. Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
Consensus ADP: RB15
The pads have yet to come on, and Walker is already dealing with an ankle issue. As previously alluded to, there's plenty of time for him to get healthy. Even so, an oft-injured, albeit talented running back being hurt at any juncture is a concerning and noteworthy development.
Head coach Mike Macdonald dismissed pass-happy offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb after just one season and spent the No. 18 overall pick on guard Grey Zabel. The message is clear: Seattle wants to take a run-first approach. But will Walker physically be able to handle an even larger workload than the 18.1 weekly touches he handled in 2024?
Seattle's offensive line projects to be among the worst in the business, regardless of Grubb being gone and Zabel in the mix. So, should health not be a concern for the perennially nicked and bruised Walker, running lanes will be tough to come by.
2. Breece Hall, New York Jets
Consensus ADP: RB13
Hall finished as the PPR RB17 last season but is being drafted four spots higher. You're not necessarily taking him at his ceiling, considering we saw the 24-year-old finish as a top-seven scorer on a points-per-game (PPG) basis in 2022 and 2023. Nonetheless, he's facing completely different circumstances in 2025 and coming off a down campaign marred by an issue with his previously surgically-repaired knee.
Entering the final year of his rookie contract, there's no extension in sight. The regime that drafted him is gone, and the existing brain trust even explored trading him this offseason. New head coach Aaron Glenn has been shy about wanting to utilize Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis "as much as possible."
A valuable pass-catching role out of the backfield conceivably awaits Hall, due to New York's lack of better options, keeping him relevant. But the vibes surrounding his standing with Glenn and Co. and regression can't be overlooked. The Jets have signaled that the former second-round pick is expendable, at least to some degree, punctuated by a looming three-headed committee.
3. Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Consensus ADP: WR25
Only the Eagles ran the ball more than the Ravens last season. Baltimore figures to remain at or near the top of the rushing attempt department, and understandably so, which makes trusting Flowers difficult.
You know what Flowers becoming the first Pro Bowl receiver in Ravens franchise history and third to reach 1,000 yards since 2016 translated to fantasy-wise? The PPR WR36 in PPG (12.3). In other words, you're paying a premium for upside we haven't seen from him or any Baltimore pass-catcher, making his average draft position merely a wishcast.
If Flowers manages to buck Lamar Jackson's curse on wideouts of being a uniquely gifted athlete/runner, what's the reward? The rising third-year pro is undeniably talented; he's just stuck in an offense that doesn't need to rely on him like other receivers in his range. Baltimore will continue to lean on their superstar quarterback and bulldozing bell-cow Derrick Henry, AKA the league's most unstoppable backfield duo.
4. Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Consensus ADP: WR13
Two members of the Jets being featured on this list shouldn't be seen as an indictment of Gang Green's scoring unit. It's more about new quarterback Justin Fields and how the Jets plan to operate.
Everyone loves to mention Fields and Wilson rekindling their Ohio State connection of yore, and that's great. Or how the dual-threat signal-caller got a WR9 PPR PPG finish out of D.J. Moore in his final season with the Chicago Bears in 2023. But Glenn and first-year offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand haven't shied away from their desire to play ground-and-pound football, largely because of their new passer.
Glenn and Engstrand appear ready to lean head-first into Fields' dynamic mobility and explosiveness. ESPN's Rich Cimini has reported that the Jets offense will have a "[Detroit] Lions flavor to it" under Glenn and Engstrand, meaning plenty of running. The insider has also floated the idea of New York using the tush push after voting against the proposal to ban it. That all sets Wilson up for volatile weekly production, and safer options are being drafted around him.
5. Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Consensus ADP: WR33
Jeudy improbably carried many to fantasy glory down the stretch of 2024 once everyone's favorite gunslinger, Jameis Winston, took over under center. But 2025 is a completely different beast, and his ADP reflects that.
Being Winston's top target on a happy-go-lucky Browns squad with nothing at stake yielded a whopping 18.5 PPR PPG from Weeks 8-18 (WR8 during that stretch). It wasn't a fluke weighed heavily by one outlier performance, either, although Jeudy did have a 40-point explosion in Week 13. He posted double-digit scoring totals in all but one contest and tallied four 20-plus point outings, showcasing a solid floor and ceiling.
Cleveland's clown car of quarterbacks will make everyone understand how good Jeudy had it with Winston last season. It's hard to get excited about any of them: First-round flameout Kenny Pickett, 40-year-old Joe Flacco or either fifth-round rookie (Shedeur Sanders or Dillion Gabriel). Regardless of who wins the starting job, multiple options figure to get chances under center, setting managers up for a headache.
The combination of presumed instability and lackluster performance of those throwing Jeudy the ball can't be overstated. Increased competition for targets between the offseason additions of veteran wideout Diontae Johnson and third-round rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. doesn't help either. David Njoku, who dealt with knee, ankle and hamstring issues and burned nearly 20 percent of his body in a home fire pit incident, is also healthy.
6. Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Consensus ADP: WR36
Despite being very skilled, Addison was one of the easier people to throw in here. He's run wildly hot on touchdowns across his first two seasons as a pro; only four wideouts have caught as many in this time. Could that continue with a second-year QB in J.J. McCarthy tossing the pigskin to him instead of veterans like Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins? Maybe, but we're not betting on it.
Protecting McCarthy, who missed his whole rookie campaign due to a torn meniscus, from himself and slow-playing the Michigan product's development makes sense. QB-whispering head coach Kevin O'Connell forgot more about football in the past 24 hours than I'll ever know. Surely, the Vikings will be mindful of not throwing the kitchen sink at their new franchise passer from the jump.
Don't be surprised to see a Vikings team that invested heavily in its offensive line this offseason try to keep pressure off of McCarthy. Addison's 14.3 expected FPPG last season ranked 35th, yielding a weekly scoring output slightly below that mark (14.2), despite regularly finding pay dirt. Both those numbers should decline with touchdown regression and the installation of a growing, young signal-caller.
7. Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
Consensus PPR ADP: TE10
The Packers' pass-catching corps has been the most frustrating group in fantasy, even more so than the Ravens. At least with Baltimore, we know not to expect anything. Green Bay gives false hope, leaving us wondering who will lead them in targets each week and if that even matters. That's why Kraft is someone who shouldn't be hard to stay away from in drafts.
Kraft flashed more upside than most of his seam-stretching comrades in 2024, but was very much a boom-or-bust play. That's because he had 11 games in which he tallied four or fewer targets. The low-volume role was counteracted by tying for the third-most receiving touchdowns among tight ends. But can managers expect him to find the end zone on 14 percent of his grabs again?
Green Bay was among the run-heaviest squads last season, which could've been a result of quarterback Jordan Love's litany of nagging injuries. Nevertheless, first-round rookie wideout Matthew Golden gives the Packers another mouth to feed. Improved availability from 2023 draft classmate and fellow Packers tight end Luke Musgrave, who was selected first, also complicates matters.
8. Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Consensus ADP: RB30
Warren's arrow was pointing up once Najee Harris signed with the Los Angeles Chargers via free agency in March. He appeared set to go from change-of-pace/receiving back to the primary option in the Steelers' backfield. Unfortunately for him, that barely lasted a month, with Pittsburgh selecting former standout Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson in Round 3 of this year's draft.
Harris' departure leaves 299 vacated touches from last season, which is good news for Warren. Be that as it may, the latter has only exceeded 200 touches once in his three seasons as a pro thus far. Despite being the more efficient option, the Steelers never gave Warren more reps than Harris, a potential sign that they prefer to limit his role.
With that in mind, it's hard to envision Warren inheriting all or even most of Harris' work. He's entering a contract year, and Johnson is the Steelers' future workhorse. Pittsburgh has every reason to lean into the rookie immediately, making Warren's mid-range RB3 assessment surprisingly high, particularly off an RB43 finish in 2024.
9. Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Consensus ADP: RB17
Hubbard was a league-winner, going from undrafted through most of last summer to fringe RB1 to the tune of 16.1 FPPG. His breakout was a godsend and propelled many to fantasy glory. But part of the appeal of the Panthers' bell-cow was essentially a free lottery ticket, which is no longer the case.
Managers must now pay a pretty penny to secure Hubbard, who can still provide value relative to cost. He's a very talented, physical, pure runner who relishes contact and has a nose for the end zone. Here's the snag: His floor is much lower than those being taken around him as an uninspiring pass-catcher who's reportedly expected to see fewer carries.
A career-high 43 receptions for Hubbard last season ranked 13th among running backs. That's all good and well ... until you realize it yielded the 41st most receiving yards among players at his position (171). His 4.0 yards per catch and 0.71 yards per route were 34th. Don't forget this when choosing between him and guys like James Conner, Joe Mixon and David Montgomery, among others.
10. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Consensus ADP: WR12
Everything that could've gone in Smith-Njigba's favor last year did. Tyler Lockett looked like a 32-year-old receiver on the decline, and D.K. Metcalf was constantly banged up. As noted in Kenneth Walker's blurb, Seattle had an OC who threw the ball at the fifth-highest rate in 2024 à la Ryan Grubb. It was a perfect storm for Seattle's 2023 first-round pick, who earned his first career Pro Bowl nod.
Alas, JSN isn't entering 2025 with the same setup. Everything around him in Seattle has changed, and arguably for the worse. Sam Darnold replacing Geno Smith under center is a lateral move at best. There's a new play-caller in town in Klint Kubiak, who presumably won't be as eager to air it out like Grubb.
But above all, what hurts Smith-Njigba the most is the arrival of veteran wideout Cooper Kupp. Both thrive as inside receivers, though the former's ascension to fantasy WR1 status came from increased usage in the slot. The latter is no longer a threat on the boundary at this stage in his career, which could complicate matters for JSN.
Smith-Njigba ate from the slot, leading the league in receptions (83) and yards (993) from the interior. Kupp will surely be siphoning a considerable chunk of those easy-button opportunities that allowed JSN to flourish.
11. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Consensus ADP: QB13
Last year's QB16 by FPPG, there isn't much upside in this conservative Chargers offense for Herbert. As long as Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are around, Los Angeles will be a run-first team that wants to beat you in the trenches. And with an elite stop unit and offensive line, they have the means to do it; don't expect them to step outside their comfort zone.
Herbert is essentially a game manager in Roman's scheme, and the recipe worked for the Chargers, at least until the playoffs. L.A. was in the bottom third of the league in passing play percentage. This made for a low-floor, medium-reward fantasy environment.
Through the first seven weeks of last season, Herbert was the QB29 outcome in FPPG. He was the QB12 from Weeks 8-17, thanks to an uptick in rushing volume/production and more of an emphasis on getting the ball downfield. His yards per attempt increased from a league-average 7.1 to 8.0, and his 5.7-yard weekly running output jumped to 24.7.
Perhaps the plantar fascia injury Herbert suffered in training camp last season prompted the Chargers to take a more conservative approach early on. The numbers would certainly suggest that. Nevertheless, as long as Harbaugh and Roman are around, there are better signal-callers to pursue if you're chasing an upside QB2.
12. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Consensus ADP: QB7
Mayfield was tied for third in FPPG (22.5) last season, so at first glance, QB7 may seem like a bargain. However, that was buoyed by a whopping 41 touchdown passes and an outlier rushing campaign, which managers should be mindful of. Replicating those numbers becomes even more challenging with All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs' recent right knee surgery that could land him on the PUP list.
While Mayfield has reinvented himself from No. 1 overall pick flameout to Tampa Bay's post-Tom Brady successor, he reached new, perhaps unsustainable heights in 2024. His 378 yards on the ground more than doubled a previous career-high of 165. The two-time Pro Bowler never threw more than 28 touchdowns in a single season before tallying nearly one-and-a-half times more.
Liam Coen's external promotion with the Jacksonville Jaguars is a notable change in Tampa Bay's offensive infrastructure. Mayfield has proven he can overcome the loss of highly touted offensive coordinators, considering the same thing happened with Dave Canales the year prior. That doesn't mean the constant play-calling turmoil should be excused, though.
13. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Consensus ADP: QB6
The Chiefs are focused on one thing and one thing only: Winning the Super Bowl. As they should be, frankly. But for us who play virtual football, that can be troublesome, especially when Mahomes is being drafted as a mid-tier QB1.
Mahomes threw for less than 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career last season since becoming Kansas City's full-time starter in 2018. He also boasted an underwhelming 4.5 touchdown percentage and was far below average in yards per attempt (6.8). The Chiefs have had no problem dinking and dunking their way to the playoffs in recent years with the bigger picture in mind. Why would that change now?
Moreover, the Chiefs have one of the unstable offensive lines in the business after trading All-Pro veteran Joe Thuney to Chicago earlier this offseason. Stalwart center Creed Humphrey and Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith are mainstays on the inside, though Mahomes' edge protection remains a question mark. Kansas City won't put its organizational centerpiece in harm's way, giving them further reason to stay the course (and us reason to pursue other QBs).